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CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $21.3, high $52.5, with mid-point at $34.5.
Stock analysis

CSX fair value $21–$53

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-20Следующее обновление: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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Цена
$46.08
▼ -11.57 (-25.11%)
Справедливая стоимость
$35
$21–$53
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
-25.1%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$29.33
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$85.6B
P/E fwd 21.4
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $35 with high case $53.
  • Implied downside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Turnaround.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$35
Margin of safety
-33.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$46.08Price
Low $21.30
Mid $34.51
High $52.53

CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • 20,000-mile Eastern US rail network
    20,000-mile Eastern US rail network rights-of-way
  • Network effects from 30+ intermodal
    Network effects from 30+ intermodal terminal connections
  • Cycle upside
    Sustained industrial production growth >3% and recovering intermodal demand.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A combined 10% volume contraction in industrial carloads paired with a 25% surge in diesel fuel prices would expand the operating ratio to ~70%. Under this scenario, mandatory capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). of $2.9B would consume nearly 100% of operating cash flowOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement., threatening capital returns and debt covenants.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Accelerated Coal Decarbonization

30%· Medium

A rapid utility pivot away from coal removes 15%+ of high-margin carload volume, causing structural deleveraging of fixed network costs and permanent margin compression.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
12-36 months

Capex Trap / Normalization Failure

40%· High

Capital intensity remains at ~20% of revenue through FY2027 as turnaround efforts fail to yield operational gains, leaving free cash flow suppressed indefinitely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
18-24 months

Regulatory Pricing Intervention

20%· Medium

The Surface Transportation Board mandates restrictive rate caps for captive shippers to fight industrial inflation, stripping the company of its core pricing power.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
24-48 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Operating Ratio (OR) exceeding 65% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-Revenue ratio remaining above 18% into FY2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net Debt / EBITDA ratio climbing toward 4.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Intermodal carload growth trailing trucking sector volumes by >300bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio dropping below 0.4x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$14.85B$14.66B$14.54B$14.09B-1.7%
Валовая прибыль$5.72B$5.50B$5.35B$4.69B-6.4%
Операционная прибыль$5.80B$5.53B$5.40B$4.72B-6.6%
Чистая прибыль$4.11B$3.67B$3.47B$2.89B-11.1%
EPS (разводнённая)$1.95$1.85$1.79$1.54-7.6%
EBITDA$7.59B$7.25B$7.05B$6.29B-6.1%
R&D—————
SG&A$-79.0M$-29.0M$-50.0M$-33.0M—

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.6×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
11.2%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

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FAQ

CSX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CSX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $46.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $34.5 (range $21.3–$52.5), which implies roughly 25.1% downside to the midpoint.

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