Is Deere & Company overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, DE looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 685 USD versus our fair value of 268 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 330 USD. That implies roughly 60.9% downside to fair value at that date.

What is DE's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives DE a fair value of 268 USD and a potential value of 330 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Deere & Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Our latest published rating for DE, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell. Deere & Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 685 USD versus fair value of 268 USD; potential value is 330 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for DE?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents Deere & Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

Our latest published rating for DE, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 8/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 268 USD, the potential value of 330 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (685 USD).

What archetype is DE?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-09-21, Deere & Company is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for DE.

DE stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchПроанализировано 2026-09-21

Deere & Company

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Потенциал снижения до справедливой стоимости: 60,9 %

Report-date price

684,73 $

Recorded 2026-09-21

Справедливая стоимость

267,81 $

Потенциальная стоимость

330,41 $

Верхняя граница оценки

Экономический ров

Narrow8 / 10

Английский по умолчаниюRU

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§1 Краткое резюмеEN

Ответ за 30 секундSell

Цена и стоимость

Цена: $684.73
Справедливая стоимость: $267.81
Потенциальная стоимость: $330.41
На дату: 2026-09-21

Почему сценарий может сработать

Accelerated grower adoption of precision agriculture telematics and autonomy drives higher equipment pricing realization and software subscription attach rates, supporting operating margin expansion above 18% as fleet replacement inflects.

Что изменит нашу оценку

Depressed agricultural crop commodity prices and elevated farm input costs cause commercial farmers to defer fleet modernization through FY2027.

We rate Deere & Company as a Sell because the stock trades at an extreme premium to its through-cycle earnings power.

On 2026-09-21, the report was prepared at a price of 684.73 USD. Our Fair value is 267.81 USD, and our Potential value is 330.41 USD. The report-date price trades 155.7% above our Fair value, representing 60.9% downside risk for investors.²

The primary risk to equity value is an extended farm recession where low crop prices cause farmers to delay machinery upgrades. If field tractor inventories pile up at dealerships, price cuts and factory slowdowns would drag operating margins below 11.0%, triggering a sharp valuation contraction toward peers.

§2 Медвежий сценарийEN

Under a severe multi-year stress test combining sustained crop price weakness, tractor inventory indigestion, and multiple compression, Deere's earnings power faces sharp contraction. If Production and Precision Ag revenue declines by >5% YoY rather than rebounding, consolidated operating margins compress below 11.0%, and the forward P/E de-rates toward peer levels of 15.88x, intrinsic equity value falls to 234.08 USD, exposing unhedged investors to severe capital loss from the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

35%

Return

-65.8%

Path target

$234.08

Extended agricultural commodity slump prolongs fleet replacement deferrals.³
Dealer inventory overhang forces wholesale discounts and factory under-absorption.³
Valuation multiples compress toward peer industrial medians.

The downside scenario reflects an extended farm recession where depressed grain commodity prices and high operating input costs lead commercial producers to postpone fleet renewal across multiple seasons. Persistent channel inventory builds would force substantial wholesale discounting and factory under-absorption, pulling operating margins toward historical trough levels and triggering significant multiple compression against peer valuations. This pathway would be disconfirmed if farm cash receipts rebound promptly and retail sales inflect positively.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Extended Farm Income Recession Triggers Multi-Year Equipment Demand Contraction

Depressed crop commodity prices and high input costs lead farmers to defer fleet modernization, causing Production & Precision Ag revenue to contract >5% YoY rather than rebounding 10% in FY2027.³

FV impact

-9.5%

Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years

Trigger

Within 24 months

Severe Operating Margin Compression From Dealer Destocking and Factory Under-Absorption

Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга

Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.

Production & Precision Ag revenue growth

Indicates multi-year fleet replacement deferral by commercial farmers due to depressed crop cash receipts, falsifying the expected FY2027 demand rebound.

Текущее значение:-7.29% modeled FY2026 growth

Предупреждение, еслиContraction below -5.0% YoY in FY2027

§3 Конкурентный ровEN

Narrow

Deere & Company possesses a Narrow economic moat grounded in structural switching costs and an unmatched dealer distribution network. The company's connected equipment ecosystem, anchored by the John Deere Operations Center telematics platform, integrates farm agronomic data, machinery fleet management, and automated field logistics. This proprietary integration creates high customer switching barriers: commercial growers who have accumulated multi-year soil, yield, and machine-performance datasets within Deere's architecture face substantial operational disruption and data migration friction if switching to rival equipment.

Complementing software switching costs is Deere's extensive, highly capitalized independent dealer network. In commercial agriculture, equipment uptime during narrow seasonal planting and harvesting windows is critical to farm economics. Deere's dealer density ensures rapid on-field service response times and immediate parts availability that smaller domestic and foreign original equipment manufacturers cannot match. This distribution network defends market leadership, commands premium average selling prices, and generates high-margin aftermarket parts and servicing revenues through cyclical downswings.

Экономическая прибыль

At the trough of the equipment cycle, Deere's economic profit narrows significantly as invested capital generates operating income of $8.42B, yielding a trough ROIC of approximately 7.56% that temporarily tracks its computed cost of capital (WACC of 7.78%). However, disciplined capital spending ($1.36B in FY2025) and structural gross margin resilience support substantial economic value added over full ten-year cycle horizons.^1,2,5

8/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Switching Costs via Connected Operations Center and Precision Ag SoftwareDeere's integrated telematics and precision software ecosystem delivers double-digit variable operating cost reductions for commercial growers, embedding farm management data into the Operations Center and creating high operational switching costs.Wide
Unrivaled Dealer Distribution and Service NetworkAn extensive, well-capitalized independent dealership network provides rapid field service, superior parts availability, and customer retention during critical planting and harvesting windows, defending dominant market share.Wide
Brand Equity and Manufacturing Scale AdvantageDecades of premium brand positioning and counter-cyclical manufacturing flexibility enable disciplined capital allocation across demand phases.

Известные угрозы для рва
Угроза	Серьёзность	Временная шкала	Митигация
Prolonged agricultural commodity downturn delaying equipment modernization	high	12-24 months	Expansion of recurring precision technology subscriptions and essential aftermarket parts support cushions cash flow.³

§5 Чувствительность

Ставка дисконтирования

Терминальный рост

	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.7%	$283.48	$283.48	$283.48	$283.48	$283.48
7.7%	$275.45	$275.45	$275.45	$275.45	$275.45
8.7%	$267.81	$267.81	$267.81	$267.81	$267.81
9.7%	$260.51	$260.51	$260.51	$260.51	$260.51
10.7%	$253.54	$253.54	$253.54	$253.54	$253.54

Строки: ставка дисконтирования (Ke для прибыли; WACC для денежного потока). Столбцы: терминальный рост.

Изменение срока (годы)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($267.81). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Обрыв FCF

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.3B after modeled reinvestment of $1.1B, with terminal value at 76.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§7 Дерево решений по отчётностиEN

Превышение

Upgrade to Reduce; Avoid adding capital; re-examine order book duration and dealer inventory absorption to assess whether pricing resilience reflects sustainable demand.

Триггер: Production and Precision Agriculture revenue and consolidated operating margin exceed guidance ranges driven by stronger North American retail order delivery.

An upside surprise driven by commercial fleet replacement would suggest demand stabilization, yet the shares trade well above $267.81.

По плану

Maintain Sell; Maintain defensive positioning and continue liquidating holdings toward full exit given substantial distance to $267.81.

Триггер: Consolidated revenue and segment margins fall within revised guidance ranges alongside seasonal dealer inventory adjustments.

Meeting lowered expectations confirms that equipment demand remains in a cyclical contraction, keeping intrinsic valuation anchored near $267.81.

Ниже плана

Maintain Sell; Execute complete divestment of remaining exposure and track dealer discounting and credit loss provisions for evidence of trough formation.

Триггер: Equipment shipments and operating margins fall below revised full-year outlook as dealer destocking forces factory curtailments.

An earnings miss would signal that farm income compression is accelerating fleet modernization deferrals, exacerbating factory under-absorption.

Качество прибыли

Operating cash conversion remains resilient through the equipment downcycle as disciplined working capital management supports healthy cash generation relative to net income. However, recent tractor inventory accumulation across dealership channels poses an earnings quality risk. If field inventory is not absorbed through retail demand, subsequent wholesale discounting and factory under-absorption would erode reported gross margins and indicate that past revenue recognition outpaced underlying farmer takeaway.^3,4,5

Метрики для отслеживания перед отчётом

Метрика:
Production & Precision Agriculture Revenue Growth
ТекущееManagement adjusted international sales outlook downward due to persistent farmer caution in South America and Europe.
Почему это важно
Tracks whether commercial growers are resuming equipment fleet modernization or continuing to defer large machinery investments, directly determining the timing of revenue inflection and factory utilization.
Метрика:
Consolidated Operating Margin

§8 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
Period	2021-10-31	2022-10-30	2023-10-29	2024-10-27	2025-11-02	Trend
Revenue	$44.02B	$52.58B	$61.25B	$51.72B	$45.68B	+0.9%
Gross profit	$13.72B	$15.73B	$22.31B	$19.50B	$16.30B	+4.4%
Operating income	$8.01B	$9.51B	$12.96B	$9.04B	$9.43B	+4.1%
Net income	$5.96B	$7.13B	$10.17B	$7.10B	$5.03B	-4.2%
EPS (diluted)	$18.99	$23.28	$34.63	$25.62	$18.50	-0.7%
EBITDA	$10.65B	$12.08B	$17.48B	$14.67B	$11.66B	+2.3%
R&D	$1.59B	$1.91B	$2.18B	$2.29B	$2.31B	+9.9%
SG&A	$3.38B	$3.86B	$4.60B	$4.84B	$4.66B	+8.4%

Принятый годовой прогноз
Метрика	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Revenue	$42.35B	$45.60B

Денежный поток

Free cash flow generation remained robust at $6.10B in FY2025, underpinned by $7.46B in operating cash flow and capex moderation to $1.36B. Cash conversion (free cash flow divided by net income of $5.03B) exceeded 120%, illustrating Deere's ability to extract substantial cash even during contractionary demand phases. However, maintaining this conversion relies on avoiding dealer inventory absorption bottlenecks.^3,4,5

Распределение капитала

Deere maintains a balanced capital allocation framework centered on shareholder distributions and liquidity maintenance. In FY2025, the company returned capital through $1.72B in dividends and $1.14B in share repurchases, reducing diluted from 293.6M in FY2023 to 271.7M in FY2025 and 269.6M currently. While total debt of $64.58B predominantly supports the Financial Services loan portfolio ($6.29B ), manufacturing remains conservative.

ROIC

Return on invested capital has compressed from peak levels in FY2023 toward 7.56% at the cyclical trough as operating income normalized from $12.96B to $8.42B on an invested capital base of $89.85B.

At the cyclical trough, estimated ROIC of 7.56% temporarily tracks the computed WACC of 7.78%, indicating that economic spread compression is near its trough before mid-cycle recovery restores returns above capital costs.

Counter-cyclical capex restraint protects free cash flow conversion

Capex decreased from $1.64B in FY2024 to $1.36B in FY2025, enabling $6.10B in free cash flow.

Последняя выручка45,7 млрд $CAGR выручки +6,2 %

Операционная маржа18,4 %Фискальных периодов: 10

Последний свободный денежный поток6,1 млрд $FY2025

Чистый долг54,2 млрд $FY2025

Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.31 июл. 2026 г.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Данные финансовой истории
Выручка	12 608 000 000 $
Себестоимость выручки	7 939 000 000 $
Валовая прибыль	4 669 000 000 $
Операционные расходы	2 077 000 000 $
Операционная прибыль	2 592 000 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги	-1 213 000 000 $
Чистая прибыль	1 379 000 000 $

Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего	105 996 000 000 $
Денежные средства	8 276 000 000 $
Оборотные активы	74 902 000 000 $
Обязательства, всего	79 989 000 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства	32 455 000 000 $
Акционерный капитал	25 956 000 000 $

Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2025.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Сверка операционного денежного потока

Чистая прибыль5 млрд $Амортизация+2,2 млрд $Компенсация акциями+151 млн $Прочие операционные корректировки+52 млн $Операционный денежный поток7,5 млрд $

Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец

Денежные средства на начало7,6 млрд $Операционный денежный поток+7,5 млрд $Инвестиционный денежный поток−2,1 млрд $Финансовый денежный поток−4,6 млрд $Влияние обменного курса+77 млн $Денежные средства на конец8,5 млрд $

7,5 млрд $ − 1,4 млрд $Свободный денежный поток 6,1 млрд $

Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль	5 027 000 000 $
Операционный приток	7 459 000 000 $
Амортизация	2 229 000 000 $
Компенсация акциями	151 000 000 $
Прочие операционные корректировки	52 000 000 $
Операционный денежный поток	7 459 000 000 $
Доступные денежные средства	15 169 000 000 $
Денежные средства на начало	7 633 000 000 $
Влияние обменного курса	77 000 000 $
Инвестиционный отток	2 057 000 000 $
Capex	1 360 000 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность	697 000 000 $
Финансовый отток	4 579 000 000 $
Выкуп акций	1 138 000 000 $
Выплаченные дивиденды	1 720 000 000 $
Чистое погашение долга	1 642 000 000 $
Прочая финансовая деятельность	79 000 000 $
Денежные средства на конец	8 533 000 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток	-2 057 000 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток	-4 579 000 000 $

Выручка по направлениям бизнесаДоля общей выручки за 2026-07-31.

Выручка по направлениям бизнесаДоля

Cost of7,9 млрд63 %

Прочее4,7 млрд37 %

Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по направлениям бизнеса
Выручка по направлениям бизнеса	Выручка	Доля	г/г
Cost of	7,9 млрд	63 %	—
Other	4,7 млрд	37 %	—

Выручка по регионамДоля общей выручки за 2025-11-02.

Выручка по регионамДоля

United States24 млрд $52,5 %−20,7 % г/г

Western Europe6,6 млрд $14,3 %+5,8 % г/г

Latin America5,6 млрд $12,3 %+1,2 % г/г

Asia Africa Oceania And Middle East4,2 млрд $9,3 %−2,7 % г/г

Canada3,7 млрд $8,2 %−4,2 % г/г

Central Europe And Commonwealth Of Independent States1,6 млрд $3,4 %+5,8 % г/г

Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2025-12-18 · SEC EDGAR

Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по регионам
Выручка по регионам	Выручка	Доля	г/г
United States	24 млрд $	52,5 %	-20,7 %
Western Europe	6,6 млрд $	14,3 %	5,8 %
Latin America	5,6 млрд $	12,3 %	1,2 %
Asia Africa Oceania And Middle East	4,2 млрд $	9,3 %	-2,7 %
Canada	3,7 млрд $	8,2 %	-4,2 %
Central Europe And Commonwealth Of Independent States	1,6 млрд $	3,4 %	5,8 %

Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.

Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.

Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.

РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.

Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-21.

Данные финансовой истории
Период	Выручка	EBITDA	Чистая прибыль	Операционный денежный поток	Свободный денежный поток	Capex	Амортизация	Компенсация акциями	Выкуп акций	Выплаченные дивиденды	Чистое привлечение долга	Инвестиционный денежный поток	Финансовый денежный поток	Денежные средства на начало	Денежные средства на конец	Денежные средства и инвестиции	Общий долг	Операционная маржа	ROIC	WACC	Спред ROIC−WACC
2016-10-30	26,6 млрд $	4,5 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	3,8 млрд $	3,1 млрд $	644,4 млн $	1,6 млрд $	70,6 млн $	205,4 млн $	761,3 млн $	—	-1,2 млрд $	-2,4 млрд $	—	4,5 млрд $	4,8 млрд $	35,6 млрд $	9,8 %	—	3,6 %	—
2017-10-29	29,7 млрд $	5,8 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	1,6 млрд $	595 млн $	1,7 млрд $	68 млн $	6 млн $	764 млн $	—	-1,7 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	4,5 млрд $	9,5 млрд $	9,8 млрд $	44,2 млрд $	12,0 %	—	4,2 %	—
2018-10-28	37,4 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	2,4 млрд $	1,8 млрд $	926 млн $	896 млн $	1,9 млрд $	84 млн $	958 млн $	806 млн $	—	-8,2 млрд $	876 млн $	9,5 млрд $	4 млрд $	4,4 млрд $	46,2 млрд $	12,0 %	—	4,7 %	—
2019-11-03	39,3 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	3,3 млрд $	3,4 млрд $	2,3 млрд $	1,1 млрд $	2 млрд $	82 млн $	1,3 млрд $	943 млн $	—	-3,9 млрд $	509 млн $	4 млрд $	4 млрд $	4,4 млрд $	49,7 млрд $	11,2 %	—	4,4 %	—
2020-11-01	35,5 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	2,8 млрд $	7,5 млрд $	6,7 млрд $	820 млн $	2,1 млрд $	81 млн $	750 млн $	956 млн $	—	-3,3 млрд $	-980 млн $	4 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	7,7 млрд $	50,7 млрд $	12,1 %	—	3,2 %	—
2021-10-31	44 млрд $	10,6 млрд $	6 млрд $	7,7 млрд $	6,9 млрд $	848 млн $	2,1 млрд $	82 млн $	2,5 млрд $	1 млрд $	—	-5,8 млрд $	-1,1 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	8,1 млрд $	8,7 млрд $	53 млрд $	18,2 %	—	4,0 %	—
2022-10-30	52,6 млрд $	12,1 млрд $	7,1 млрд $	4,7 млрд $	3,6 млрд $	1,1 млрд $	1,9 млрд $	85 млн $	3,6 млрд $	1,3 млрд $	5,8 млрд $	-8,5 млрд $	826 млн $	8,1 млрд $	4,9 млрд $	5,5 млрд $	52,2 млрд $	18,1 %	—	6,4 %	—
2023-10-29	61,3 млрд $	17,5 млрд $	10,2 млрд $	8,6 млрд $	7,1 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	2 млрд $	130 млн $	7,2 млрд $	1,4 млрд $	11,5 млрд $	-8,7 млрд $	2,8 млрд $	4,9 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	8,4 млрд $	63,7 млрд $	21,2 %	—	6,9 %	—
2024-10-27	51,7 млрд $	14,7 млрд $	7,1 млрд $	9,2 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	1,6 млрд $	2,1 млрд $	208 млн $	4 млрд $	1,6 млрд $	3 млрд $	-6,5 млрд $	-2,7 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	8,5 млрд $	65,5 млрд $	17,5 %	—	6,4 %	—
2025-11-02	45,7 млрд $	11,7 млрд $	5 млрд $	7,5 млрд $	6,1 млрд $	1,4 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	151 млн $	1,1 млрд $	1,7 млрд $	-1,6 млрд $	-2,1 млрд $	-4,6 млрд $	7,6 млрд $	8,5 млрд $	9,7 млрд $	63,9 млрд $	18,4 %	—	6,6 %	—

§9 Сравнение оценки с аналогами

Deere & CompanyDE

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость267,81 $Report-date price684,73 $

Дата оценки21 сент. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок56 / 100

Caterpillar Inc.CAT

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость297,04 $Report-date price813,94 $

Дата оценки08 сент. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNone

Инвестиционная карта оценок51 / 100

The Boeing CompanyBA

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость134,94 $Report-date price193,56 $

Дата оценки03 окт. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок46 / 100

Deere & CompanyDE

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость267,81 $Report-date price684,73 $

Дата оценки21 сент. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок56 / 100

Мультипликаторы и рентабельность конкурентов
Тикер	Название	Капитализация	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

Deere & Company (DE) trades at 29.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 24.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 28.2x compares with a peer median of 22.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: PACCAR Inc., Caterpillar Inc., The Boeing Company and Parker-Hannifin Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.

§10 Отрасль и циклEN

Фаза цикла

Trough

Deere curtailed capital expenditures from $1.64B in FY2024 to $1.36B in FY2025, while industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.1% and capex-to-depreciation is 0.68.⁵

Бычий цикл

During cyclical expansion phases, rising agricultural crop prices elevate net farm income, prompting commercial agricultural producers to aggressively modernize equipment fleets. Elevated equipment order backlogs, robust pricing realization, and operating leverage drive substantial margin expansion and rapid return on capital compounding for equipment manufacturers.

Медвежий цикл

During cyclical contraction phases, falling crop commodity prices squeeze grower margins and cash flows, leading commercial farmers to defer capital expenditures and delay fleet replacements. Dealership inventories accumulate, factory production rates slow to match reduced retail takeaway, and fixed cost under-absorption compresses operating profitability across the machinery complex.

Долгосрочные тренды
Тренд	Влияние	Примечание
Precision Agriculture and Autonomous Equipment Adoption	positive	Farmers adopt telematics, automated guidance, and precision spraying/planting technologies to offset rising fertilizer and labor costs, delivering double-digit variable cost savings.
Dealer Territory Consolidation and Servicing Complexity	positive	Increasing mechanical and software complexity favors heavily capitalized dealership networks, reinforcing Deere's distribution against smaller competitors.

Позиционирование

Deere is positioned at the top of the agricultural machinery hierarchy. Its dominant dealer footprint and connected fleet ecosystem allow it to capture premium pricing and sustain an 18.42% operating margin in FY2025, exceeding the industry operating margin benchmark of 16.10% and machinery peer PCAR at 12.02%. However, near-term inventory builds ahead of the industry expose it to cyclical destocking risks before the next upswing.^2,3

§11 Управление позициейEN

Размер позиции

Given our Sell rating, Fair value of 267.81 USD compared to the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21, and -60.89% upside, we recommend zero portfolio allocation (0%). The market valuation embeds an aggressive multi-year growth rebound that leaves no margin of safety against cyclical downcycle risks.²

Риск

Given the substantial valuation disconnect between Deere's market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21 and our Fair value of 267.81 USD, risk management centers on capital preservation. Investors should eliminate long exposure to avoid multiple compression risk as forward P/E of 29.24x normalizes toward historical and peer medians.

Транши входа
Уровень	Действие	Почему
At or below Fair value (267.81 USD)	Consider initiating disciplined accumulation only if cyclical demand stabilizes	Aligns market price with normalized mid-cycle valuation, providing adequate margin of safety.
	Evaluate standard cyclical position sizing	Represents the low endpoint of our fair value range, pricing in a severe farm recession.

Транши выхода
Уровень	Действие
Market price as of 2026-09-21 (684.73 USD)	Liquidate remaining long exposure immediately to lock in peak cyclical gains.
Secondary technical resistance (705.88 USD, 52-week high)	Complete final exit of any residual holdings.

Квартальные контрольные точки
Метрика	Порог	Действие
Production & Precision Ag revenue growth	Quarterly revenue contracting >5% YoY	Confirm extended farm recession; maintain aggressive underweight / zero allocation.
Consolidated operating margin

§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN

Действие

Продавать

We recommend a Sell rating for Deere & Company as the market price of 684.73 USD as of 2026-09-21 stands 155.7% above our Fair value of 267.81 USD.²

While Deere maintains a solid narrow moat via telematics switching costs and its unmatched dealer network, peak multiple valuation leaves investors heavily exposed to multi-year agricultural equipment destocking risks.

DE	Deere & Company	$184.4B	29.2x	3.9x	28.2x	18.2%	—
PCAR	PACCAR Inc.	$60.4B	15.9x	2.2x	20.6x	12.8%	12.0%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	$375.3B	25.2x	5.0x	25.3x	57.0%	22.2%
BA	The Boeing Company	$158.9B	49.2x	1.7x		173.5%	0.0%
PH	Parker-Hannifin Corporation	$120.8B	24.4x	5.6x	22.5x	25.1%	23.5%

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Обзор компании

Production & Precision Ag revenue growth

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Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Forward Earnings

Production & Precision Agriculture Revenue Growth

Consolidated Operating Margin

Sources

Consolidated operating margin

Dealer inventory turnover

Forward P/E multiple

Financial Services credit loss provisions

Owner Earnings

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

Dealer Channel Inventory Cadence

Precision Technology Monetization and Adoption

Construction & Forestry Sales Momentum and Pricing Realization