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DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $123, high $204, with mid-point at $163.
Stock analysis

DHR Danaher Corporation fair value $163–$204

DHR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-10Следующее обновление: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Health Care
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Цена
$171.16
▼ -8.06 (-4.71%)
Справедливая стоимость
$163
$163–$204
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 87/100
Потенциал роста
-4.7%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$138.63
buy below · 15%
Капитализация
$121.1B
P/E fwd 18.8
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $163 with high case $204.
  • Implied downside of 4.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$163
Margin of safety
-4.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$171.16Price
FV $163.1
High $203.68

DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Intrinsic valuation suggests downside risk.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Under severe bioprocessing market contraction and failed M&A execution, our pure intrinsic models force valuation toward the $114-$122 range. Margins revert below 19% as DBS efficiencies fail to offset volume deleverage, and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. contracts toward 15x as the compounding narrative breaks.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Prolonged Bioprocessing Slump

· High

Extended pharma funding constraints and destocking cap revenue growth in low single-digits.

FV impact
-25%

M&A Integration Failure

· Medium

A major acquisition fails to realize DBS synergies, destroying ROIC and stalling margin expansion.

FV impact
-15%

China Market Deterioration

· Medium

Deepening macro weakness and localized competition in China structurally erode regional market share and profitability.

FV impact
-10%
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Consumables growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin contracting below 19%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexplained delays in M&A integration milestonesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising days sales outstanding in emerging marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
CapEx to depreciation ratio falling below 0.75MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$24.80B$26.64B$23.89B$23.88B$24.57B-0.2%
Валовая прибыль$15.24B$16.19B$14.03B$14.21B$14.52B-1.2%
Операционная прибыль$6.39B$7.54B$5.20B$4.86B$4.69B-7.4%
Чистая прибыль$6.43B$7.21B$4.76B$3.90B$3.61B-13.4%
EPS (разводнённая)$9.66$6.38$5.29$5.05-15.0%
EBITDA$8.80B$9.48B$7.50B$7.28B$6.95B-5.8%
R&D$1.50B$1.53B$1.50B$1.58B$1.60B+1.6%
SG&A$6.81B$7.12B$7.33B$7.76B$8.24B+4.9%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
5 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
3.69
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.57
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.78×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
4.9%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

DHR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DHR trades close to fair value. The current price is $171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $163 (range $123–$204), which implies roughly 4.7% downside to the midpoint.
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