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EA trades against a final fair-value range of $85.13-$188.44, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $85.1, high $188, with mid-point at $136.
Stock analysis

EA fair value $85–$188

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-20Следующее обновление: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$201.70
▼ -65.26 (-32.35%)
Справедливая стоимость
$136
$85–$188
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
-32.4%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$115.97
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$50.6B
P/E fwd 20.7

§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $136 with high case $188.
  • Implied downside of 32.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$136
Margin of safety
-47.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$201.70Price
Low $85.13
Mid $136.44
High $188.44

EA trades against a final fair-value range of $85.13-$188.44, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Network Effects
    Network Effects
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating digital transition, new console generation penetration, and monetization of live services.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A combined scenario where EA loses its exclusive NFL license and sweeping global regulations ban Ultimate Team mechanics. This would structurally impair the 1.85x OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement.-to-Net-Income conversion and compress operating margins well below 20%, driving the valuation toward the $85 downside case.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Regulatory Ban on Ultimate Team

· Medium

Global regulatory actions classify Ultimate Team 'loot boxes' as gambling, heavily restricting or banning the mechanic in key markets.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Loss of NFL Exclusive License

· Low

The NFL decides to move away from an exclusive licensing agreement, allowing competitors to release simulation football titles.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Franchise Fatigue and Player Attrition

· Medium

Core franchises experience severe player attrition due to a lack of innovation and aggressive monetization, leading to a permanent structural decline in live-service revenues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-4 Years
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Consecutive quarters of declining Ultimate Team net bookings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins falling below 22% for two consecutive fiscal quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF to Net Income ratio dropping below 1.3x on a TTM basis.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory investigations opened in major gaming markets (EU, US).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant player base decline in EA FC or Madden.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2022-03-312023-03-312024-03-312025-03-312026-03-31Trend
Выручка$6.99B$7.43B$7.56B$7.46B—+1.6%
Валовая прибыль$5.13B$5.63B$5.85B$5.92B—+3.6%
Операционная прибыль$1.13B$1.44B$1.58B$1.58B—+8.7%
Чистая прибыль$789.0M$802.0M$1.27B$1.12B—+9.2%
EPS (разводнённая)$2.76$2.88$4.68$4.25$3.51+6.2%
EBITDA$1.63B$1.92B$2.05B$2.02B—+5.6%
R&D$2.19B$2.33B$2.42B$2.57B—+4.1%
SG&A$1.63B$1.71B$1.71B$1.71B—+1.1%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.86×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
15.8%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

EA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, EA looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $202 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $136 (range $85.1–$188), which implies roughly 32.4% downside to the midpoint.

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