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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
EFX — frequently asked questions
Is Equifax Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, EFX looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 146 USD versus our fair value of 161 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 200 USD. That implies roughly 10.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives EFX a fair value of 161 USD and a potential value of 200 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Equifax Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy EFX now?
Our latest published rating for EFX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold. Equifax Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 146 USD versus fair value of 161 USD; potential value is 200 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for EFX?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents Equifax Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is EFX's rating?
Our latest published rating for EFX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 161 USD, the potential value of 200 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (146 USD).
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§1 Краткое резюмеEN
Ответ за 30 секундHold
Цена и стоимость
Цена
$145.78
Справедливая стоимость
$160.83
Потенциальная стоимость
$199.54
На дату
2026-10-09
Почему сценарий может сработать
A faster-than-anticipated rebound in residential mortgage inquiries combined with accelerated adoption of The Work Number in government social services contracts could expand operating margins beyond 25% and drive FY2027 EPS above $11.00.
Что изменит нашу оценку
Persistent mortgage origination contraction with inquiries dropping >15% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
Equifax Inc. (EFX) presents a balanced investment case at $145.78, where high-margin data assets and post-cloud margin leverage are balanced by mortgage cyclicality and financial leverage.4
Equifax possesses strong competitive advantages rooted in its proprietary employment database (The Work Number) and triopoly credit reporting infrastructure. In FY2025, consolidated revenue reached $6,074.5M with operating income of $1,095.2M, led by Workforce Solutions contributing $1,141.5M in segment operating profit. Completion of the firm's multi-year cloud overhaul is driving tangible operational leverage, demonstrated by 120 bps margin expansion in Q2 2026 and $150M in projected cumulative AI run-rate savings across 2026-2028.
However, these structural positives are balanced by near-term mortgage inquiry sensitivity and an elevated debt burden of $5,467.1M. At the October 9, 2026 price of $145.78, the stock trades at a 9.36% discount to our compositefair value of $160.83 (10.32% upside), which places the risk-reward profile firmly within the Hold rating band.4
Hold: Compositefair value of $160.83 represents 10.32% upside, offering balanced risk-reward.
Обзор компании
Equifax Inc. is a global data, analytics, and technology company that provides consumer and commercial credit reporting, employment and income verification, and fraud prevention services. The company operates across three principal segments: Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions (USIS), and International.
In FY2025, Workforce Solutions generated $2,582.3M in revenue, USIS generated $2,078.5M, and International generated $1,413.7M, serving financial institutions, employers, healthcare organizations, and government agencies.
§2 Медвежий сценарийEN
A prolonged mortgage downturn coupled with debt refinancing at prevailing pre-tax borrowing costs of 6.22% on $5,467.1M of total debt would pressure annual interest expense and reduce cash conversion. If core revenue growth stalls below 6.11% CAGR and operating margins drop under 18.03%, annual free cash flow expansion would stall, compromising net debt reduction and multiple resilience.
Persistent high mortgage rates suppress consumer borrowing inquiries while emerging verification aggregators introduce fee friction. Operating margins fail to expand past 18.03%, slowing earnings expansion.
Как может разрушиться эта теза
Persistent mortgage freeze and TWN pricing pushback compress operating margin
Operating income was $1,095.2M on $6,074.5M revenue in FY2025 (18.03% margin). A decline below 18.0% falsifies the thesis of 50-75 bps annual core operating leverage and AI cost savings.5,7
FV impact
-3.1%
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
Erosion of verification pricing power or employer record disintermediation.
Текущее значение:52.1% in Q2 2026
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 48.0%
02
§3 Конкурентный ровEN
Wide
Equifax maintains a Wide economic moat anchored by two distinct, highly defensible data franchises: The Work Number (Workforce Solutions) and its credit bureau infrastructure (US Information Solutions). The Work Number operates as a de facto regulatory-compliant clearinghouse for income and employment verifications, generating $2,582.3M in revenue and $1,141.5M in operating income in FY2025. Exclusive direct integrations with corporate payroll systems create dual-sided network effects and steep switching costs: employers benefit from outsourced verification management, while lenders, government agencies, and background screeners rely on instant, authoritative data that cannot be replicated by manual alternatives.
In consumer credit reporting, USIS generated $2,078.5M in revenue and $475.2M in operating income in FY2025, benefiting from statutory and regulatory frameworks (FCRA) and triopoly credit bureau status. With the completion of its enterprise cloud migration, Equifax has consolidated legacy systems into a modern cloud fabric, expanding operating margins by 120 bps in Q2 2026 and securing structural cost advantages over competitors. These advantages ensure ROIC comfortably exceeds the firm's 8.72% WACC.
Экономическая прибыль
Equifax generates sustained economic profits supported by an 8.72% WACC and 18.03% GAAP operating margin ($1,095.2M EBIT on $6,074.5M revenue in FY2025), generating operating cash flow of $1,615.7M and FCF of $1,134.3M.2,6,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs & Direct Software Integration — Workforce Solutions embeds directly into corporate enterprise payroll systems with 10% record growth and 52.1% EBITDA margins, creating mission-critical automated workflows that verifiers cannot readily substitute.Wide
02Network Effects of Proprietary Employment Records — The Work Number database generated $2,582.3M revenue and $1,141.5M operating profit in FY2025, creating dual-sided network effects where deeper record coverage continuously attracts financial, government, and employer verifiers.Wide
03
Известные угрозы для рва
Угроза
Серьёзность
Временная шкала
Митигация
Alternative open-source or consumer-permissioned verification platforms
medium
2-4 years
Enterprise-grade payroll partnerships, continuous record growth (10% YoY in Q2 2026), and instantaneous compliance-grade fulfillment.5
Mortgage origination and FICO scoring fee disputes
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($160.83). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $799.8M after modeled reinvestment of $266.6M, with terminal value at 79.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Capital expenditures normalize toward steady-state run-rates following cloud migration
Total debt is steadily paid down using strong excess free cash flow generation
Core revenue expands at 11.11% in FY2026 and 8.76% in FY2027 in line with consensus. Cloud operating leverage delivers ~75 bps annual core margin expansion, driving EPS toward $10.15 in FY2027.1,5
Earnings quality is solid, driven by recurring subscription and transactional verification data with GAAP net income of $660.3M converting to $1,615.7M in operating cash flow in FY2025, supported by high EBITDA margins in Workforce Solutions.5,7
Динамика прогнозов
Consensus FY2026 EPS of $8.56 and FY2027 EPS of $10.15 have held stable post-Q2 results, reflecting steady operational execution balanced against persistent mortgage market headwinds.1
Equifax generated $1,615.7M in operating cash flow and $1,134.3M in free cash flow in FY2025 against GAAP net income of $660.3M, reflecting cash conversion of over 2.4x net income. With CapEx stabilizing at $481.4M, free cash flow conversion provides robust support for dividend payments ($2.24/share baseline) and debt service.6,7
Распределение капитала
Capital deployment priorities center on debt reduction against $5,467.1M in total debt, disciplined bolt-on acquisitions in international and verification verticals, and opportunistic share repurchases, utilizing >$1B annual excess free cash flow.
Return on invested capital is inflecting upward as multi-year cloud migration capital outlays taper off ($481.4M CapEx in FY2025) while operating profits expand through AI productivity gains of $150M.
ROIC comfortably exceeds the computed WACC of 8.72% and cost of equity of 10.01%, confirming substantial economic value generation.
Последний свободный денежный поток1,1 млрд $FY2025
Чистый долг4,9 млрд $FY2025
Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Выручка6,1 млрд $Себестоимость выручки−2,6 млрд $Валовая прибыль3,4 млрд $Операционные расходы−2,3 млрд $Операционная прибыль1,1 млрд $Внереализационные статьи и налоги−434,9 млн $Чистая прибыль660,3 млн $
Данные финансовой истории
Выручка
6 074 500 000 $
Себестоимость выручки
2 645 600 000 $
Валовая прибыль
3 428 900 000 $
Операционные расходы
2 333 700 000 $
Операционная прибыль
1 095 200 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги
-434 900 000 $
Чистая прибыль
660 300 000 $
Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Структура активовИсточники финансирования
Активы, всего11,9 млрд $Денежные средства180,8 млн $Оборотные активы1,4 млрд $Обязательства, всего7,1 млрд $Краткосрочные обязательства2,3 млрд $Акционерный капитал4,6 млрд $
Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего
11 864 200 000 $
Денежные средства
180 800 000 $
Оборотные активы
1 412 200 000 $
Обязательства, всего
7 126 000 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства
2 335 400 000 $
Акционерный капитал
4 623 800 000 $
Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Сверка операционного денежного потока
Чистая прибыль660,3 млн $Амортизация+726,9 млн $Компенсация акциями+78,4 млн $Прочие операционные корректировки+150,1 млн $Операционный денежный поток1,6 млрд $
Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец
Денежные средства на начало169,9 млн $Операционный денежный поток+1,6 млрд $Инвестиционный денежный поток−554,3 млн $Финансовый денежный поток−1,1 млрд $Влияние обменного курса+9,2 млн $Денежные средства на конец180,8 млн $
1,6 млрд $ − 481,4 млн $Свободный денежный поток 1,1 млрд $
Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль
660 300 000 $
Операционный приток
1 615 700 000 $
Амортизация
726 900 000 $
Компенсация акциями
78 400 000 $
Прочие операционные корректировки
150 100 000 $
Операционный денежный поток
1 615 700 000 $
Доступные денежные средства
1 794 800 000 $
Денежные средства на начало
169 900 000 $
Влияние обменного курса
9 200 000 $
Инвестиционный отток
554 300 000 $
Capex
481 400 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность
72 900 000 $
Финансовый отток
1 059 700 000 $
Денежные средства на конец
180 800 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток
-554 300 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток
-1 059 700 000 $
Выручка по операционным сегментамДоля общей выручки за 2025-12-31.
6,1 млрд $Общая выручка
Выручка по операционным сегментамДоля
Workforce Solutions2,6 млрд $42,5 %+6,1 % г/г
USInformation Solutions2,1 млрд $34,2 %+9,8 % г/г
International1,4 млрд $23,3 %+4,4 % г/г
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по операционным сегментам
Выручка по операционным сегментам
Выручка
Доля
г/г
Workforce Solutions
2,6 млрд $
42,5 %
6,1 %
USInformation Solutions
2,1 млрд $
34,2 %
9,8 %
International
1,4 млрд $
23,3 %
4,4 %
Выручка по регионамДоля общей выручки за 2025-12-31.
6,1 млрд $Общая выручка
Выручка по регионамДоля
United States4,7 млрд $76,7 %+7,7 % г/г
Прочее498,3 млн $8,2 %+4,4 % г/г
United Kingdom325,9 млн $5,4 %+7,6 % г/г
Australia318,1 млн $5,2 %+2,9 % г/г
Canada271,4 млн $4,5 %+2,5 % г/г
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по регионам
Выручка по регионам
Выручка
Доля
г/г
United States
4,7 млрд $
76,7 %
7,7 %
Other
498,3 млн $
8,2 %
4,4 %
United Kingdom
325,9 млн $
5,4 %
7,6 %
Australia
318,1 млн $
5,2 %
2,9 %
Canada
271,4 млн $
4,5 %
2,5 %
Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.
Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.
РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-10-11.
Equifax Inc. (EFX) trades at 16.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.7x compares with a peer median of 18.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Verisk Analytics Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., Generac Holdings Inc. and Hubbell Incorporated, as of 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-11.
§10 Отрасль и циклEN
Фаза цикла
Trough
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 3.4% and capex-to-depreciation at 0.65, while Equifax capex moderated to $481.4M (7.9% of revenue) following completion of its enterprise cloud overhaul.7
Бычий цикл
A falling interest rate environment sparks mortgage refinancing and purchase activity, accelerating verification inquiries across USIS and Workforce Solutions while commercial non-mortgage demand expands at high single digits.
Медвежий цикл
Persistent elevated interest rates depress lending inquiries, while regulatory pressure or consumer-permissioned verification bypasses create top-line headwinds across core credit and verification lines.
Долгосрочные тренды
Тренд
Влияние
Примечание
Digital automated verification of income and employment
positive
Shift from manual pay-stub verification to automated instant API verification via The Work Number expanding in government benefits and talent acquisition.
Cloud and generative AI infrastructure integration
positive
Enterprise cloud migration enables deployment of AI tools yielding $150M in expected run-rate cost savings across 2026-2028.
Higher interest rate sensitivity in residential lending
Equifax is positioned as an indispensable verification infrastructure provider with strong pricing power in Workforce Solutions ($2,582.3M FY2025 revenue) and credit bureau triopoly standing in USIS ($2,078.5M FY2025 revenue).8
§11 Управление позициейEN
Размер позиции
2-3%
Reflects the company's wide moat and post-cloud free cash flow inflections balanced against $5.47B in total debt and cyclical mortgage sensitivity.4
Риск
Manage balance sheet exposure given $5,467.1M in total debt by tracking debt-to-EBITDA progress and interest expense trends under pre-tax debt costs of 6.22%.
Equifax offers high-quality defensive data assets and high cash conversion, but the modest 10.32% upside to fair value ($160.83) does not warrant an aggressive overweight.6
Long-term Compounder
Hold
The Work Number data monopoly and cloud-enabled operating leverage underpin steady multi-year compounding toward $10.15 EPS in FY2027, supporting continued retention of core positions.1
Tactical
Hold
Near-term mortgage inquiry sensitivity and $5.47B debt load argue against adding capital ahead of clear lending inflection signals.4
§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN
Действие
Держать
We maintain a Hold rating on Equifax Inc. with a compositefair value of $160.83 per share, representing 10.32% upside from the October 9, 2026 price of $145.78.4
While completed cloud migration and Workforce Solutions record expansion provide structural margin expansion and robust cash conversion, the current valuation adequately reflects near-term operational momentum amidst cyclical mortgage headwinds and financial leverage.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Severe macroeconomic downturn and lending freeze shocks 5-year revenue trajectory
Consensus projects revenue growth of 11.11% in FY2026 ($6,749.4M) and 8.76% in FY2027 ($7,340.7M). Deceleration to 6.11% CAGR triggers severe top-line contraction across USIS and Workforce Solutions.1
FV impact
-6.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Valuation derating as market rejects premium compounder multiple amidst high leverage
Current forward P/E is 16.05x and model terminal multiple is 18.0x. A 20% contraction to 14.4x aligns with peer and historical cyclical trough multiples under $5.47B total debt.4
— USIS generated $2,078.5M revenue and $475.2M operating income in FY2025, protected by FCRA compliance protocols, historical credit trade-line archives, and nationwide institutional relationships that establish high entry barriers.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (33,88 $) plus discounted terminal value (130 $) minus signed per current share (41,99 $) equals the 122 $ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Mortgage origination rates rebound sharply while non-mortgage verification accelerates via $100M+ in new government awards. AI run-rate savings surpass $150M, expanding operating margins past 24.8% by 2030.5
Target doubled to $150M across 2026-2028.
Почему это важно
Measures execution on multi-year cost reduction commitments, confirming operating leverage and margin expansion from completed cloud transformation.
03
Метрика:
Deleveraging and Debt Servicing Pace
ТекущееTotal debt stands at $5,467.1M as of Q2 2026.
Почему это важно
Substantial balance sheet leverage requires disciplined debt paydown to lower interest burdens and protect equity value.
