Is Fox Corporation Class A overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, FOXA looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 63,3 USD versus our fair value of 83,8 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 137 USD. That implies roughly 32.3% upside to fair value at that date.

What is FOXA's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives FOXA a fair value of 83,8 USD and a potential value of 137 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Fox Corporation Class A's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy FOXA now?

Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy. Fox Corporation Class A looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 63,3 USD versus fair value of 83,8 USD; potential value is 137 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for FOXA?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Fox Corporation Class A's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is FOXA's rating?

Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 83,8 USD, the potential value of 137 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (63,3 USD).

What archetype is FOXA?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-10-05, Fox Corporation Class A is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FOXA.

FOXA stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchПроанализировано 2026-10-05

Fox Corporation Class A

FOXA

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Потенциал роста до справедливой стоимости: 32,3 %

Report-date price

63,33 $

Recorded 2026-10-05

Справедливая стоимость

83,77 $

Потенциальная стоимость

137,46 $

Верхняя граница оценки

Экономический ров

Narrow6.5 / 10

Английский по умолчаниюRU

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§1 Краткое резюмеEN

Ответ за 30 секундBuy

Цена и стоимость

Цена: $63.33
Справедливая стоимость: $83.77
Потенциальная стоимость: $137.46
На дату: 2026-10-05

Почему сценарий может сработать

Accelerating digital profitability as Tubi maintains >30% top-line growth and eliminates digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026), combined with record midterm political advertising and continued $2.0B annual share repurchases that compound diluted EPS toward consensus highs.

Что изменит нашу оценку

Pay-television subscriber attrition in Cable Network Programming accelerates beyond 8.0% annually, overwhelming contractual affiliate fee escalators.

We assign a Buy rating to Fox Corporation Class A, reflecting a 32.3% implied return to our Fair value of USD 83.77 as live sports rights, election-cycle political advertising, and rapid Tubi streaming monetization generate strong free cash flow to fund aggressive share repurchases.

Our Buy rating indicates that Fox Corporation Class A offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for long-term equity investors seeking cash-generative compounding. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation signifies that the company's underlying earnings power and balance sheet capital returns are substantially undervalued relative to the cash flows produced by its core broadcast television, news, and digital streaming franchises.

The stock was priced at USD 63.33 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the shares trade at an implied return of 32.3% to our Fair value of USD 83.77, representing a 24.4% price discount. Under our constructive expansion path, Fox's reaches USD 137.46, offering substantial multi-year upside should digital streaming profitability and advertising pricing exceed expectations.

§2 Медвежий сценарийEN

Under a combined stress environment where linear cord-cutting accelerates beyond 8% annually, programmatic connected television advertising supply dilutes AVOD CPM pricing, and net leverage from planned corporate transactions reaches 2.8x against total debt of $7,568M in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment, consolidated operating margins compress toward 15-16%. Annual free cash flow would contract, compelling management to scale back annual share repurchases below $1,000M, testing balance sheet flexibility and limiting per-share compounding.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

20%

Return

-25.0%

Path target

$47.52

Accelerating secular cord-cutting exceeds contractual affiliate rate increases, compressing cable programming operating margins.
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply depresses Tubi monetization and delays digital breakeven.
Higher leverage and debt service costs following transaction execution constrain discretionary capital return and curtail share repurchases.

In the bear case, severe pay-TV subscriber attrition overwhelms contractual pricing escalators, while programmatic ad market dilution and elevated debt service compress operating margins and restrict share buybacks.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Severe cord-cutting and linear affiliate revolt accelerates subscriber attrition beyond contractual rate increases, collapsing cable programming profitability.

Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in FY2026 and supported $3,345M of consolidated operating income. If subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, margins drop below 20%, triggering operating margin contraction across the firm.^4,8

FV impact

-7.3%

Operating margin 3 points lower throughout

Trigger

Within 12 months

Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга

Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.

Cable Network Programming operating margin

Affiliate pricing resistance or accelerating traditional pay-TV cord-cutting exceeding rate escalators, eroding annuity cash flows.

Текущее значение:25.21% (peer FOX cable operating margin)

Предупреждение, если< 22%

§3 Конкурентный ровEN

Narrow

Fox Corporation maintains a Narrow economic moat supported by structural advantages in live sports broadcasting agreements, the indispensable brand franchise of Fox News, and the digital reach platform of Tubi. In broadcast television, Fox holds exclusive telecast agreements for NFL football locked through 2029 with contractual stability confirmed for the next four years before any rights opt-out period. Live event sports consumption, where Fox topped all broadcast networks in fiscal 2026, provides appointment viewing that cannot be replicated by on-demand scripted entertainment, preserving linear mass audience reach and premium advertiser pricing.

The Cable Network Programming segment ($7,348M in FY2026 revenue, 42.91% of consolidated revenue) functions as a high-margin cash generator that anchors consolidated operating income of $3,345M. Fox News commands essential carriage positioning across traditional multichannel video programming distributors and virtual MVPD platforms. Contractual affiliate fee escalation clauses have largely absorbed ongoing mid-single-digit secular subscriber volume declines, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows and peer-leading cable operating margins of 25.21%.

In digital streaming, Fox has executed a capital-efficient digital transition centered on Tubi (FAST/AVOD) and FOX One, avoiding the multi-billion-dollar direct-to-consumer content deficit spending that has impaired legacy media peers. Tubi achieved 35% revenue growth in FY2026 driven by proactive video-on-demand viewing, while total digital net investment losses contracted from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026. While secular linear pay-TV subscriber cord-cutting prevents a Wide moat rating, locked sports contracts and cash generation justify a 5-year stage II competitive fade duration.

Экономическая прибыль

Fox generates durable economic profits, supported by FY2026 operating cash flow of $1,970M and free cash flow of $1,468M on consolidated revenues of $17,126M. Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.41% exceeds the company's moderate cost of equity of 8.2601% and computed WACC of 7.4102% by approximately 700 basis points, reflecting an asset-light operating model with low capital expenditures ($502M in FY2026).^2,6,7

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Intangible assets (long-term marquee live sports broadcast rights and Fox News brand franchise)Fox holds exclusive broadcast telecast rights for NFL football locked through 2029 with no contractual term changes for four years, creating appointment viewing that commands premium upfront advertiser pricing and preserves broad broadcast reach.Wide
Distribution scale and must-have broadcast reach in live unscripted contentTelevision generated $9,666M in FY2026 and Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M, supporting must-have retransmission and affiliate fee carriage across traditional MVPDs and virtual MVPDs.Moderate

Известные угрозы для рва
Угроза	Серьёзность	Временная шкала	Митигация
Linear pay-TV cord-cutting acceleration beyond contractual affiliate rate increases.	high	12-24 months	Must-have live sports and news distribution across virtual MVPD tiers (YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV), contracted affiliate rate inflators, and non-linear reach via Tubi and incremental FOX One subscribers.⁵

§5 Чувствительность

Ставка дисконтирования

Терминальный рост

	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
7.3%	$92.83	$96.51	$100.69	$105.50	$111.08
7.8%	$85.20	$88.06	$91.27	$94.89	$99.01
8.3%	$78.95	$81.24	$83.77	$86.59	$89.75
8.8%	$73.74	$75.61	$77.65	$79.90	$82.39
9.3%	$69.30	$70.85	$72.53	$74.36	$76.37

Строки: ставка дисконтирования (Ke для прибыли; WACC для денежного потока). Столбцы: терминальный рост.

Изменение срока (годы)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($83.77). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Обрыв FCF

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.3B after modeled reinvestment of $202.2M, with terminal value at 81.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§7 Дерево решений по отчётностиEN

Превышение

Upgrade the rating; Evaluate incremental position expansion and monitor whether digital profit inflection provides sustainable operating margin expansion beyond tournament-boosted quarters.

Триггер: Diluted earnings per share and Television segment revenue exceed consensus expectations driven by record midterm political advertising and Tubi revenue growth accelerating above historical pacing.

An earnings beat driven by outsized political advertising capture and faster digital breakeven accelerates free cash flow generation, increases share repurchase pacing, and expands intrinsic value per share toward Potential value.

По плану

Maintain Buy; Maintain existing allocation, verifying that share buyback execution continues as planned through pending transaction financing.

Триггер: Diluted earnings per share and consolidated revenue track consensus expectations with scheduled affiliate rate increases offsetting pay-TV cord-cutting and steady share repurchases.

In-line financial execution affirms the mature compounder thesis, verifying that contractual pricing escalation and ongoing share retirements continue to drive per-share value compounding.

Ниже плана

Downgrade the rating; Review exposure, pause incremental capital deployment, and reassess debt leverage thresholds and buyback execution.

Триггер: Diluted earnings per share or Cable Network Programming affiliate revenues contract below consensus as pay-TV subscriber attrition accelerates beyond rate escalators or programmatic ad pricing weakens.

An operational miss stemming from deteriorating cable affiliate fees or digital advertising pricing softness would compress operating margins and constrain capital return capacity.

Качество прибыли

Earnings quality remains supported by healthy operating cash flow conversion of net income, modest capital expenditure requirements, and minimal reliance on working capital adjustments. High cash conversion confirms that reported operating income translates directly into distributable free cash flow, while the steady reduction in digital investment drag reflects structural operating improvement rather than accounting accruals.

Динамика прогнозов

Consensus earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal years have held steady following fourth-quarter results, balancing cyclical political advertising momentum against linear pay-TV subscriber attrition and comparison hurdles from non-recurring tournament broadcasts.

Метрики для отслеживания перед отчётом

Метрика:
Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends
ТекущееContractual affiliate escalators are absorbing volume declines, with must-have live sports and news carriage maintaining carriage tier positioning across distributors.
Почему это важно
Measures whether contractual per-subscriber fee increases continue to offset pay-TV cord-cutting attrition, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows that fund capital returns.
Метрика:
Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection

§8 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
Period	2022-06-30	2023-06-30	2024-06-30	2025-06-30	2026-06-30	Trend
Revenue	$13.97B	$14.91B	$13.98B	$16.30B	$17.13B	+5.2%
Gross profit	$13.97B	$14.91B	$13.98B	$5.40B	$6.27B	-18.1%
Operating income	$2.07B	$2.09B	$2.51B	$3.46B	$2.55B	+5.4%
Net income	$1.21B	$1.24B	$1.50B	$2.26B	$1.69B	+8.7%
EPS (diluted)	$2.11	$2.33	$3.13	$4.91	$3.84	+16.1%
EBITDA	$2.43B	$2.50B	$2.90B	$3.85B	$2.96B	+5.0%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.92B	$2.05B	$2.02B	$2.17B	$2.37B	+5.4%

Принятый годовой прогноз
Метрика	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Revenue	$17.69B	$17.66B

Денежный поток

Operating cash flow reached $1,970M in FY2026, which funded capital expenditures of $502M to generate $1,468M in free cash flow. Low capital intensity (capex at 2.93% of revenue) and narrowing digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026 vs <$300M in FY2025) underpin steady cash conversion.^5,6,7

Распределение капитала

Fox maintains an aggressive, disciplined capital return program, deploying $2,000M into share repurchases in FY2026 alongside $243M in dividend payments and a semiannual dividend increase to $0.29 per share. Share buybacks have reduced diluted shares from 570M in FY2022 to 439M in FY2026. While FY2026 repurchases exceeded annual free cash flow of $1,468M, liquidity is supported by $4,205M in cash reserves, though net is guided to reach 2.8x upon closing the planned Roku transaction against total debt of $7,568M.

ROIC

Asset-light broadcast operations, disciplined rights renewals, and minimal fixed capital investment allow Fox to generate economic returns substantially above its cost of capital.

ROIC of 14.41% exceeds computed WACC of 7.4102% and moderate cost of equity Ke of 8.2601% by approximately 700 bps, generating durable economic value.

Share repurchases are the primary driver of double-digit EPS expansion.

Fox repurchased $2,000M of stock in FY2026, lowering diluted share count to 439M and compounding diluted EPS from $3.84 in FY2026 toward consensus $5.85 in FY2028.

Per-share earnings growth will consistently outpace revenue growth even in low-single-digit top-line environments.

Narrow digital investment drag is expanding consolidated .

Последняя выручка17,1 млрд $CAGR выручки +6,3 %

Операционная маржа19,5 %Фискальных периодов: 10

Последний свободный денежный поток1,5 млрд $FY2026

Чистый долг2,4 млрд $FY2026

Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.30 июн. 2026 г.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Данные финансовой истории
Выручка	4 212 000 000 $
Себестоимость выручки	2 182 000 000 $
Валовая прибыль	2 030 000 000 $
Операционные расходы	1 045 000 000 $
Операционная прибыль	985 000 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги	-294 000 000 $
Чистая прибыль	691 000 000 $

Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего	22 482 000 000 $
Денежные средства	4 205 000 000 $
Оборотные активы	8 453 000 000 $
Обязательства, всего	10 754 000 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства	2 667 000 000 $
Акционерный капитал	11 728 000 000 $

Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2026.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Сверка операционного денежного потока

Чистая прибыль1,7 млрд $Амортизация+410 млн $Компенсация акциями+132 млн $Прочие операционные корректировки−257 млн $Операционный денежный поток2 млрд $

Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец

Денежные средства на начало5,4 млрд $Операционный денежный поток+2 млрд $Инвестиционный денежный поток−705 млн $Финансовый денежный поток−2,4 млрд $Денежные средства на конец4,2 млрд $

2 млрд $ − 502 млн $Свободный денежный поток 1,5 млрд $

Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль	1 685 000 000 $
Операционный приток	2 227 000 000 $
Амортизация	410 000 000 $
Компенсация акциями	132 000 000 $
Операционный денежный поток	1 970 000 000 $
Операционный отток	257 000 000 $
Доступные денежные средства	7 321 000 000 $
Денежные средства на начало	5 351 000 000 $
Инвестиционный отток	705 000 000 $
Capex	502 000 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность	203 000 000 $
Финансовый отток	2 411 000 000 $
Выкуп акций	2 000 000 000 $
Выплаченные дивиденды	287 000 000 $
Прочая финансовая деятельность	124 000 000 $
Денежные средства на конец	4 205 000 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток	-705 000 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток	-2 411 000 000 $

Выручка по направлениям бизнесаДоля общей выручки за 2026-06-30.

Выручка по направлениям бизнесаДоля

Cost of2,2 млрд51,8 %

Прочее2 млрд48,2 %

Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по направлениям бизнеса
Выручка по направлениям бизнеса	Выручка	Доля	г/г
Cost of	2,2 млрд	51,8 %	—
Other	2 млрд	48,2 %	—

Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.

Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.

Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.

РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.

Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-10-05.

Данные финансовой истории
Период	Выручка	EBITDA	Чистая прибыль	Операционный денежный поток	Свободный денежный поток	Capex	Амортизация	Компенсация акциями	Выкуп акций	Выплаченные дивиденды	Чистое привлечение долга	Инвестиционный денежный поток	Финансовый денежный поток	Денежные средства на начало	Денежные средства на конец	Денежные средства и инвестиции	Общий долг	Операционная маржа	ROIC	WACC	Спред ROIC−WACC
2017-06-30	9,9 млрд $	2,4 млрд $	1,4 млрд $	1,7 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	191 млн $	169 млн $	0 $	—	35 млн $	—	-242 млн $	-1,4 млрд $	—	19 млн $	19 млн $	—	25,6 %	—	—	—
2018-06-30	10,2 млрд $	2,4 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	1,3 млрд $	1,1 млрд $	215 млн $	171 млн $	0 $	0 $	41 млн $	—	128 млн $	1 млрд $	19 млн $	2,5 млрд $	2,5 млрд $	0 $	21,8 %	—	—	—
2019-06-30	11,4 млрд $	2,6 млрд $	1,6 млрд $	2,5 млрд $	2,3 млрд $	235 млн $	212 млн $	36 млн $	0 $	188 млн $	—	-637 млн $	-1,2 млрд $	2,5 млрд $	3,2 млрд $	3,2 млрд $	6,8 млрд $	21,3 %	—	4,2 %	—
2020-06-30	12,3 млрд $	2,1 млрд $	999 млн $	2,4 млрд $	2 млрд $	359 млн $	258 млн $	137 млн $	600 млн $	335 млн $	—	-1,1 млрд $	146 млн $	3,2 млрд $	4,6 млрд $	4,6 млрд $	7,9 млрд $	20,3 %	—	2,7 %	—
2021-06-30	12,9 млрд $	3,6 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	2,6 млрд $	2,2 млрд $	484 млн $	300 млн $	147 млн $	1 млрд $	330 млн $	—	-528 млн $	-870 млн $	4,6 млрд $	5,9 млрд $	5,9 млрд $	8 млрд $	21,4 %	—	4,8 %	—
2022-06-30	14 млрд $	2,4 млрд $	1,2 млрд $	1,9 млрд $	1,6 млрд $	307 млн $	363 млн $	102 млн $	1 млрд $	307 млн $	-750 млн $	-513 млн $	-2,1 млрд $	5,9 млрд $	5,2 млрд $	5,2 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	18,4 %	—	5,7 %	—
2023-06-30	14,9 млрд $	2,5 млрд $	1,2 млрд $	1,8 млрд $	1,4 млрд $	357 млн $	411 млн $	74 млн $	2 млрд $	299 млн $	0 $	-438 млн $	-2,3 млрд $	5,2 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	18,5 %	—	6,4 %	—
2024-06-30	14 млрд $	2,9 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	1,8 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	345 млн $	389 млн $	90 млн $	1 млрд $	281 млн $	-18 млн $	-452 млн $	-1,3 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	7,2 млрд $	17,7 %	—	6,8 %	—
2025-06-30	16,3 млрд $	3,8 млрд $	2,3 млрд $	3,3 млрд $	3 млрд $	331 млн $	385 млн $	135 млн $	1 млрд $	277 млн $	-600 млн $	-537 млн $	-1,8 млрд $	4,3 млрд $	5,4 млрд $	5,4 млрд $	6,6 млрд $	19,8 %	—	6,2 %	—
2026-06-30	17,1 млрд $	3 млрд $	1,7 млрд $	2 млрд $	1,5 млрд $	502 млн $	410 млн $	132 млн $	2 млрд $	287 млн $	0 $	-705 млн $	-2,4 млрд $	5,4 млрд $	4,2 млрд $	4,2 млрд $	6,6 млрд $	19,5 %	—	6,4 %	—

§9 Сравнение оценки с аналогами

Fox Corporation Class AFOXA

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость83,77 $Report-date price63,33 $

Дата оценки05 окт. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок72 / 100

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.LYV

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость46,58 $Report-date price168,77 $

Дата оценки03 окт. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок50 / 100

Netflix, Inc.NFLX

Цена / справедливая стоимость

Справедливая стоимость63,88 $Report-date price78,25 $

Дата оценки08 сент. 2026 г.

Экономический ровNarrow

Инвестиционная карта оценок63 / 100

Мультипликаторы и рентабельность конкурентов
Тикер	Название	Капитализация	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

Fox Corporation Class A (FOXA) trades at 11.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 16.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Live Nation Entertainment Inc., Fox Corporation Class B, Netflix Inc. and News Corp Class B, as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.

§10 Отрасль и циклEN

Фаза цикла

Contraction

Industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 0.63 and industry capex-to-revenue is -1.3%, reflecting capital discipline and subdued fixed asset reinvestment across the media broadcasting sector. Fox's own capex of $502M in FY2026 relative to D&A of $410M reinforces this low capital intensity. Capacity and lead-time data are unavailable, so the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.⁷

Бычий цикл

The broadcast and media bull cycle is powered by biennial political advertising surges, marquee live sports viewership records, contractual retransmission and affiliate fee inflation, and rapid AVOD streaming monetization.

Медвежий цикл

The media broadcast bear cycle is characterized by accelerating linear pay-TV cord-cutting, subscriber resistance to traditional cable bundle pricing, off-cycle political advertising vacuums, and programmatic connected TV inventory dilution that compresses ad CPMs.

Долгосрочные тренды
Тренд	Влияние	Примечание
Secular pay-TV linear cord-cutting	negative	Accelerating subscriber attrition across traditional cable and satellite distributors erodes pay-TV bundle penetration, putting pressure on linear affiliate revenues.
Migration of viewership to ad-supported connected TV (AVOD/FAST)	positive	Audiences are shifting toward ad-supported streaming platforms, enabling Tubi's 35% revenue growth with high user engagement.

Позиционирование

Fox is positioned as a focused live sports and unscripted news broadcaster with an asset-light AVOD streaming wing (Tubi), intentionally avoiding capital-intensive scripted SVOD entertainment production.

§11 Управление позициейEN

Размер позиции

3-5%

Supported by stable free cash flow ($1,468M in FY2026), locked sports telecast rights through 2029, and continuous $2,000M share repurchases that provide strong downside support.^5,6

Риск

Position risk is managed by capping portfolio weighting at 5%, monitoring quarterly linear cord-cutting trends and affiliate negotiations, and tracking balance sheet net leverage through the completion of planned corporate transactions.

Транши входа
Уровень	Действие	Почему
$60.00 - $64.00	Initiate core position	Provides attractive entry at a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77) with forward P/E of 11.11x.
Below $55.00	Add to position	Offers an enhanced margin of safety, trading near historical trough valuation multiples with dividend yield support.

Транши выхода
Уровень	Действие
$80.00 - $84.00	Trim 30% of position
$95.00 - $100.00	Trim an additional 30% of position as valuation approaches potential value

Квартальные контрольные точки
Метрика	Порог	Действие
Cable Network Programming operating margin	< 22%	Re-underwrite terminal value and assess whether affiliate fee resistance is impairing annuity cash flows.

§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN

Действие

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Fox Corporation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile, trading at USD 63.33 as of October 5, 2026, a 24.4% discount to our Fair value of USD 83.77 (32.3% implied return). Live sports and news franchises insulate cash generation against linear erosion.⁴

Strong free cash flow of $1,468M and $4,205M in cash reserves back consistent $2.0B annual share buybacks, driving per-share earnings compounding even in low top-line growth environments.

FOXA	Fox Corporation Class A	$26.7B	11.1x	1.6x	7.6x	14.3%	—
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment Inc.	$39.8B	87.5x	1.5x	27.9x	17.7%	6.7%
FOX	Fox Corporation Class B	$23.9B	9.9x	1.4x	7.0x	14.3%	25.2%
NFLX	Netflix Inc.	$279.2B	17.6x	5.8x	19.5x	49.5%	33.4%
NWS	News Corp Class B	$17.3B	21.2x	1.9x	13.9x	8.0%	12.5%

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Fox Corporation Class A

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Обзор компании

Cable Network Programming operating margin

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Discounted Earnings

Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends

Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection

Sources

Tubi revenue growth

Annual share repurchases

Television segment revenue growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

PEG-adjusted Peer

Midterm election political advertising revenues

Discretionary share repurchase pacing and capital return

Net leverage trajectory and interest coverage