Необязательная аналитика продукта
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If demand returns faster than expected, earnings per share could reach the upper end of the estimate range for the year ending 2028-01-31 while cash generation stays strong.
Sales growth in the main store business falls below two percent for two consecutive fiscal years.
The rating is Sell. The report-date price sits above our estimate of what Home Depot is worth.
Sell means we would reduce a holding rather than add to one. The report-date price is above our Fair value, so a buyer today pays more than the business appears to be worth.
The main risk is that sales in the largest business slow. That line supplied $151.97 billion of the $164.68 billion of total sales in the year ended 2026-02-01. Store and staffing costs do not fall as fast, so profit would drop faster than sales.7
The clearest reason it could work: the business turns reported profit into cash. Operating cash was $16.33 billion against $14.16 billion of profit in the year ended 2026-02-01, funding the dividend and store investment.6
Demand improves modestly. Analyst sales estimates for the year ending 2028-01-31 point to growth, with a mid estimate of $177.49 billion. That is an expectation, not a result already achieved.
Sell: the report-date price exceeds our estimate of the company's worth.
Sell: the report-date price exceeds our estimate of the company's worth.
The Home Depot, Inc. offers its associates the opportunity to benefit from robust development opportunities. Its Home Depot University, or “HDU,” program, is a key part of this development, offering relevant content through multiple platforms, including instructor-led classes, e-learning, mobile learning, and additional online resources.
The Home Depot, Inc. also provides a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. The Home Depot, Inc. currently conducts these operations in the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S.
The primary business transmits the weakness because smaller segments offer limited offset. Positive FY2025 free cash flow cushions funding pressure but does not prevent lower earnings and value.
Home projects stay deferred and sales growth in the main store business falls under two percent. Fixed costs then take a larger share of each sales dollar, so profit falls faster than sales. Two consecutive weak fiscal years would confirm this path.
Annual revenue growth falls below 2%, removing most expected expansion and causing operating deleverage in the primary business.
Operating margin falls below 10%, causing earnings and cash generation to decline faster than sales.
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
A breach would remove most forecast growth and spread fixed store and payroll costs across a weaker sales base, reducing earnings and cash.
Текущее значение:FY2025 revenue was $164.68 billion.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 2% in FY2027 or FY2028
Home Depot earns solid profits and turns reported profit into cash. Those are results, not protection. Available public information does not show a structural advantage that keeps rivals out, such as high switching costs, a distribution edge, or a scale advantage rivals cannot copy.
The nearest home-improvement retailer trades at a lower price per dollar of expected earnings than Home Depot. That gap means investors currently pay more for Home Depot's earnings. Other companies in the comparison sell coffee, food and apparel, so they test valuation only, not competitive strength.
Free cash flow was positive in the fiscal year ended 2026-02-01. That shows cash resilience. It does not show returns above what investors require.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($215.78). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $15.9B after modeled capex of $3.6B, with terminal value at 55.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Sales recover at a low-single-digit rate through the year ending 2028-01-31, consistent with the annual revenue estimate. Even with that recovery, the report-date market valuation remains above the $215.78 fair-value midpoint.1
The report-date price remains above fair value, so one strong result would improve confidence in the recovery but would not by itself remove the valuation concern.
Expected delivery would preserve a modest recovery without extending visibility beyond FY2028.
Weak primary-business sales or poorer cash backing would show that earnings power is falling rather than merely delayed.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, although one period does not establish durable cash growth.6
Slower growth would increase pressure from fixed store costs and reduce profit.6
Weakness in the dominant business would flow directly into consolidated sales and profit.7
In the year ended 2026-02-01 the business produced $16.33 billion of operating cash, spent $3.68 billion on stores and equipment, and kept $12.65 billion.56
Dividends of $9.15 billion took most of that free cash in the same year. Debt stood at $63.19 billion on 2026-09-08, so paying down borrowings competes directly with the dividend.
Available public information does not establish a multi-year trend in returns on the money invested in the business. Operating profit was $20.89 billion in the year ended 2026-02-01.
No comparison of returns earned against the return investors require is supported here, so no conclusion is drawn.
Operating cash flow was $16.33 billion against reported profit of $14.16 billion for the year ended 2026-02-01
Profit arrived as real cash that year, which supports the dividend.
Free cash flow was $12.65 billion and dividends paid were $9.15 billion in the year ended 2026-02-01
Little room remains for buybacks or debt reduction without cash improving.
Total debt was $63.19 billion on 2026-09-08
If lenders demand more, interest costs rise and less cash reaches owners.
| Выручка | 164 683 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 109 818 000 000 $ |
| Валовая прибыль | 54 865 000 000 $ |
| Операционные расходы | 33 975 000 000 $ |
| Операционная прибыль | 20 890 000 000 $ |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | -6 734 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 14 156 000 000 $ |
| Активы, всего | 105 095 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 1 389 000 000 $ |
| Оборотные активы | 34 391 000 000 $ |
| Обязательства, всего | 92 282 000 000 $ |
| Краткосрочные обязательства | 32 424 000 000 $ |
| Акционерный капитал | 12 813 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 14 156 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Операционный приток | 18 192 000 000 $ |
| Амортизация | 3 514 000 000 $ |
| Компенсация акциями | 522 000 000 $ |
| Операционный денежный поток | 16 325 000 000 $ |
| Операционный отток | 1 867 000 000 $ |
| Доступные денежные средства | 18 083 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на начало | 1 659 000 000 $ |
| Влияние обменного курса | 99 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный отток | 8 980 000 000 $ |
| Capex | 3 679 000 000 $ |
| Прочая инвестиционная деятельность | 5 301 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый отток | 7 714 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на конец | 1 389 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный денежный поток | -8 980 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый денежный поток | -7 714 000 000 $ |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-03-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по операционным сегментам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 152 млрд $ | 92,3 % | -0,7 % |
| All Other Segments | 12,7 млрд $ | 7,7 % | 98,5 % |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-03-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по регионам | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 152,2 млрд $ | 92,4 % | 3,5 % |
| Non Us | 12,5 млрд $ | 7,6 % | 0 % |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-08.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-29 | 94,6 млрд $ | 15,4 млрд $ | 8 млрд $ | 9,8 млрд $ | 8,2 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 2 млрд $ | 267 млн $ | 6,9 млрд $ | 3,4 млрд $ | — | -1,6 млрд $ | -7,9 млрд $ | — | 2,5 млрд $ | 2,5 млрд $ | 23,6 млрд $ | 14,2 % | — | 6,5 % | — |
| 2018-01-28 | 100,9 млрд $ | 16,8 млрд $ | 8,6 млрд $ | 12 млрд $ | 10,1 млрд $ | 1,9 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 273 млн $ | 8 млрд $ | 4,2 млрд $ | — | -2,2 млрд $ | -8,9 млрд $ | 2,5 млрд $ | 3,6 млрд $ | 3,6 млрд $ | 27 млрд $ | 14,5 % | — | 6,9 % | — |
| 2019-02-03 | 108,2 млрд $ | 17,9 млрд $ | 11,1 млрд $ | 13,2 млрд $ | 10,7 млрд $ | 2,4 млрд $ | 2,2 млрд $ | 282 млн $ | 10 млрд $ | 4,7 млрд $ | — | -2,4 млрд $ | -12,5 млрд $ | 3,6 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 29,2 млрд $ | 14,4 % | — | 6,9 % | — |
| 2020-02-02 | 110,2 млрд $ | 18,2 млрд $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 13,7 млрд $ | 11 млрд $ | 2,7 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 251 млн $ | 7 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | — | -2,7 млрд $ | -10,8 млрд $ | 1,8 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 29,5 млрд $ | 14,4 % | — | 5,7 % | — |
| 2021-01-31 | 132,1 млрд $ | 20,8 млрд $ | 12,9 млрд $ | 18,8 млрд $ | 16,4 млрд $ | 2,5 млрд $ | 2,5 млрд $ | 310 млн $ | 791 млн $ | 6,5 млрд $ | — | -10,2 млрд $ | -3 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | 7,9 млрд $ | 7,9 млрд $ | 34,8 млрд $ | 13,8 % | — | 5,5 % | — |
| 2022-01-30 | 151,2 млрд $ | 25,9 млрд $ | 16,4 млрд $ | 16,6 млрд $ | 14 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 2,9 млрд $ | 399 млн $ | 14,8 млрд $ | 7 млрд $ | — | -3 млрд $ | -19,1 млрд $ | 7,9 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 36,4 млрд $ | 15,2 % | — | 6,3 % | — |
| 2023-01-29 | 157,4 млрд $ | 27,1 млрд $ | 17,1 млрд $ | 14,6 млрд $ | 11,5 млрд $ | 3,1 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 366 млн $ | 6,7 млрд $ | 7,8 млрд $ | 3,4 млрд $ | -3,1 млрд $ | -11 млрд $ | 2,3 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 41,2 млрд $ | 15,3 % | — | 7,8 % | — |
| 2024-01-28 | 152,7 млрд $ | 25,1 млрд $ | 15,1 млрд $ | 21,2 млрд $ | 17,9 млрд $ | 3,2 млрд $ | 3,1 млрд $ | 380 млн $ | 8 млрд $ | 8,4 млрд $ | 724 млн $ | -4,7 млрд $ | -15,4 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 3,8 млрд $ | 3,8 млрд $ | 42,2 млрд $ | 14,2 % | — | 8,6 % | — |
| 2025-02-02 | 159,5 млрд $ | 25,4 млрд $ | 14,8 млрд $ | 19,8 млрд $ | 16,3 млрд $ | 3,5 млрд $ | 3,3 млрд $ | 442 млн $ | 649 млн $ | 8,9 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | -21 млрд $ | -694 млн $ | 3,8 млрд $ | 1,7 млрд $ | 1,7 млрд $ | 51,4 млрд $ | 13,5 % | — | 9,0 % | — |
| 2026-02-01 | 164,7 млрд $ | 24,3 млрд $ | 14,2 млрд $ | 16,3 млрд $ | 12,6 млрд $ | 3,7 млрд $ | 3,5 млрд $ | 522 млн $ | 0 $ | 9,2 млрд $ | 1,3 млрд $ | -9 млрд $ | -7,7 млрд $ | 1,7 млрд $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 1,4 млрд $ | 49,4 млрд $ | 12,7 % | — | 8,5 % | — |
The Home Depot Inc. (HD) trades at 21.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.5x compares with a peer median of 16.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lowe's Companies Inc., Starbucks Corporation, McDonald's Corporation and The TJX Companies Inc., as of 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending runs near six percent of sales, with spending slightly above the rate assets wear out.
Demand improves modestly. Analyst sales estimates for the year ending 2028-01-31 point to growth, with a mid estimate of $177.49 billion. That is an expectation, not a result already achieved.
Home projects are easy to delay. If customers postpone them, sales in the main store business slow, and that business supplied $151.97 billion of the $164.68 billion total in the year ended 2026-02-01.
Home Depot's scale is real, but growth depends on one large business recovering. At today's size, the smaller businesses would need very rapid growth to offset a sustained shortfall there.7
No new position; reduce any existing holding. The Sell rating requires lower exposure while the accepted valuation remains below the report-date price.4
Reduce in stages and accelerate when an operating threshold breaks. Substantial debt increases the financial effect of weaker cash generation.
The dividend was covered by free cash in the year ended 2026-02-01, but $9.15 billion of payouts took most of the $12.65 billion generated.5
No structural advantage was established, and the report-date price sits above our estimate of value.
Shares cost more per dollar of expected earnings than the nearest home-improvement rival, without proven faster growth.3
The rating is Sell because the report-date price is above our estimate of what the business is worth.
Home Depot generates real cash and pays a covered dividend. But growth is modest, concentrated in one large business, and no lasting competitive barrier was established. That combination does not support the report-date market valuation.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Forward P/E falls below 17x before earnings accelerate, reducing the price investors pay for expected profit.3
Full-year operating cash falls below 0.8 times reported profit, weakening support for dividends and reinvestment.
The moderate cost of equity exceeds 11.78%, reducing the present value of future cash while debt remains substantial.24
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 2% for two consecutive fiscal years
Lower profit per sales dollar would turn weak demand into sustained earnings pressure and leave less internally generated cash for dividends and investment.
Текущее значение:FY2025 operating income was $20.89 billion.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 10% of revenue within 24 months
Less cash behind reported profit would force dividends, capital spending and debt repayment to compete for a smaller internally funded pool.
Текущее значение:FY2025 operating cash was $16.33 billion against $14.16 billion of profit.
Предупреждение, еслиFull-year operating cash below 0.8 times reported profit
A higher required return would reduce what future dividends and cash flows are worth today, even if operating results remain positive.
Текущее значение:The moderate cost of equity was 9.7802% on 2026-09-08.
Предупреждение, еслиAbove 11.78% within 12 months
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Demand returns faster, earnings per share reach the upper end of the estimate range for the year ending 2028-01-31, and investors continue to award the same earnings multiple. Meaningful upside requires stronger earnings and sustained valuation support at the same time.1
A thinner margin would reduce earnings and the cash available for dividends.6
Poorer cash backing would increase reliance on borrowing for dividends and investment.6
Peer outgrowth alongside weaker margins could cause investors to pay less for Home Depot earnings.1
| $182.81B |
| $187.75B |
| $192.44B |
| Operating income | $21.75B | $22.51B | $23.18B | $23.81B | $24.40B |
| NOPAT | $16.56B | $17.13B | $17.65B | $18.12B | $18.58B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $16.56B | $17.13B | $17.65B | $18.12B | $18.58B |
| Revenue growth | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Tax rate | 23.9% | 23.9% | 23.9% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Маржа |
|---|
| HD | The Home Depot Inc. | $320.3B | 21.2x | 1.9x | 15.5x | 104.3% | — |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies Inc. | 15.7x | 1.3x | 12.1x | — | 13.4% | |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | 33.5x | 3.1x | 24.4x | — | 12.9% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 18.3x | 6.5x | 15.7x | — | 46.5% | |
| TJX | The TJX Companies Inc. | 22.9x | 2.3x | 17.3x | 62.2% | 10.9% |
| Two consecutive fiscal years below 2% |
| Exit fully because smaller segments offer limited offset to sustained primary-business weakness.7 |
