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INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $369, high $605, with mid-point at $486.
Stock analysis

INTU Intuit Inc. fair value $486–$605

INTU
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-09Следующее обновление: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Цена
$396.31
▲ +89.90 (+22.68%)
Справедливая стоимость
$486
$486–$605
Рекомендация
Покупать
confidence 88/100
Потенциал роста
+22.7%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$413.28
buy below · 15%
Капитализация
$110.3B
P/E fwd 15.0
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $486 with high case $605.
  • Implied upside of 22.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$486
Margin of safety
+18.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$396.31Price
FV $486.21
High $605.35

INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core accounting software (QuickBooks) limiting SMB defection.
  • Strong network effects and cross-selling
    Strong network effects and cross-selling capabilities within the Intuit ecosystem.
  • Bull thesis
    Market implied expectations (9.1% growth) sit below analyst consensus (14%).

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A combined macro shock and IRS direct intervention. SMB bankruptcies spike, collapsing QuickBooks seat growth and Mailchimp cross-sells. Concurrently, IRS Direct File captures 20% of the simple return market. Operating margins compress to 25% as fixed R&D and elevated SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. (10.4% of revenue) deleverage.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

IRS Direct File Domination

· Low

Government filing service expands beyond simple returns, permanently impairing TurboTax volume and pricing power.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

SMB Ecosystem Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged recession triggers a wave of SMB insolvencies, driving double-digit churn in QuickBooks and Mailchimp.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Mailchimp Integration Failure

· Low

Synergies between QuickBooks and Mailchimp fail to materialize, leading to substantial goodwill impairment ($13.9B total goodwill) and stunted ARPU.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
2 Years
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
TurboTax unit volume growth turns consistently negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
QuickBooks Online subscriber churn exceeds historical mid-single-digit averages.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation surpasses 12% of total revenue without offset.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Mailchimp average revenue per user (ARPU) stagnates or declines.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to maintain the 28% floor modeled in the base case.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Выручка$12.73B$14.37B$16.29B$18.83B+14.0%
Валовая прибыль$10.32B$11.23B$12.82B$14.98B+13.2%
Операционная прибыль$2.56B$3.14B$3.85B$4.94B+24.5%
Чистая прибыль$2.07B$2.38B$2.96B$3.87B+23.3%
EPS (разводнённая)$7.28$8.42$10.43$13.67+23.4%
EBITDA$3.37B$4.04B$4.58B$5.89B+20.5%
R&D$2.35B$2.54B$2.75B$2.93B+7.7%
SG&A$5.00B$5.06B$5.73B$6.64B+9.9%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.6×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
15.2%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

INTU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, INTU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $396 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $486 (range $369–$605), which implies roughly 22.7% upside to the midpoint.

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