Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)

The base scenario projects a target of $47.63 with an estimated probability of 55.0% and an implied return of -58.0% relative to $113.39 (as of 2026-10-02). This outcome requires core physical records storage to sustain inflation-linked contract price increases, while the data center pipeline energizes in line with commercial schedules and asset lifecycle management expands toward full-year targets. Capex intensity is assumed to moderate gradually beyond the initial buildout phase, allowing operating cash generation to narrow the free cash flow deficit. This path would be disconfirmed by prolonged grid interconnection delays or decelerating organic growth in records management, which would become visible through quarterly segment disclosures over the coming fiscal periods.

• Core records management maintains contractual inflation escalators to sustain low-single-digit organic growth.
• Data center development pipeline energizes leasable capacity in line with multi-year management guidance.
• Asset Lifecycle Management continues to scale toward management annual revenue targets.
• Capex intensity normalizes gradually beyond FY2027, allowing owner earnings to expand.