The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows. Fair value range: low $77.2, high $122, with mid-point at $99.5.
Fair value midpoint of $99.46 implies nearly 27% upside.
Pricing power neutralizes near-term CSD volume sluggishness.
Weak OCF/NI conversion warrants monitoring but terminal stability is intact.
Fair value
$99
Margin of safety
+21.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$78.33Price
Low $77.20
Mid $99.46
High $121.75
The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows.
KO (KO)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.
EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.
Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.
FAQ
KO — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, KO looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $78.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $99.5 (range $77.2–$122), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for KO is $77.2–$122, with a midpoint of $99.5. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for KO's archetype.
Our current rating for KO is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. Assigning a strong-Strong Buy rating based on a $99.46 fair value midpoint, offering ~27% upside. High confidence anchored by exceptional margin stability. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for KO are: Health Trend Acceleration; Persistent FX Headwinds; Input Cost Margin Squeeze. The single biggest risk is Health Trend Acceleration: Accelerated secular shifts away from carbonated soft drinks permanently compress volume growth.
Our current rating for KO is Strong Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($77.2–$122) versus the current price of $78.3.
KO is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for KO.