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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX fair value $133–$237

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-08Следующее обновление: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
Справедливая стоимость
$183
$133–$237
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 87/100
Потенциал роста
-37.8%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$155.96
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$295.16Price
Low $132.71
Mid $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year internal valuation cross-checks revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Выручка$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
Валовая прибыль$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
Операционная прибыль$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
Чистая прибыль$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
EPS (разводнённая)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
R&D$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
SG&A$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
8 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
23.45
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.36
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.15×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
33.8%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

LRCX scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for LRCX (LRCX) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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