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MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-10Следующее обновление: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Цена
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
Справедливая стоимость
$275
$193–$377
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 77/100
Потенциал роста
-8.0%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Выручка$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
Валовая прибыль$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
Операционная прибыль$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
Чистая прибыль$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
EPS (разводнённая)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
R&D$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
SG&A$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
5 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
18.58
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.86
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
-7.1
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
-0.0%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

MDB income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of MDB (MDB) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

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