С вашего разрешения мы используем ограниченную аналитику с защитой конфиденциальности, чтобы понять, какие исследовательские сценарии работают. Мы не используем рекламные трекеры или запись сеансов. Этот выбор можно изменить в настройках. Прочитайте Политику конфиденциальности.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MKC — frequently asked questions
Is McCormick & Company Incorporated overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, MKC looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 48,7 USD versus our fair value of 57,6 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 102 USD. That implies roughly 18.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives MKC a fair value of 57,6 USD and a potential value of 102 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for McCormick & Company Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MKC now?
Our latest published rating for MKC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy. McCormick & Company Incorporated looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 48,7 USD versus fair value of 57,6 USD; potential value is 102 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MKC?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents McCormick & Company Incorporated's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MKC's rating?
Our latest published rating for MKC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 57,6 USD, the potential value of 102 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (48,7 USD).
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§1 Краткое резюмеEN
Ответ за 30 секундBuy
Цена и стоимость
Цена
$48.72
Справедливая стоимость
$57.60
Потенциальная стоимость
$102.44
На дату
2026-09-18
Почему сценарий может сработать
Accelerated international expansion across EMEA ($1,268.5M, 18.5% of revenue) and Asia Pacific ($704.0M, 10.3% of revenue), paired with expanding B2B custom flavor formulations, driving top-line growth and expanding valuation toward Potential value of $102.44.
We rate McCormick & Company a Buy. At the report-date price of $48.72 on September 18, 2026, the stock trades at an 18.2% discount to our Fair value of $57.60. Downside risk centers on customer concentration and private-label retail pushback at Walmart. However, proprietary flavor partnerships and category brand loyalty provide resilient cash generation to drive outperformance.3,6
The committee assigns a Buy rating, indicating that McCormick offers an attractive risk-adjusted return profile for long-term compounder and dividend-oriented investors.
On the analysis date of September 18, 2026, McCormick shares traded at $48.72, standing 15.4% below our house Fair value estimate of $57.60 and well below of $102.44.
The principal risk to this investment thesis is customer concentration and pricing pushback at Walmart, which generates 12.0% of consolidated revenue. If Walmart demands aggressive promotional allowances or favors private-label spices, Consumer segment revenue would contract below negative 2% YoY, compressing consolidated operating margins toward 13.5%.5,6
Conversely, the primary driver of upside is McCormick's dual-engine pricing power and proprietary formulation stickiness. The Consumer segment sustains a 37.9% gross margin via dominant shelf placement, while Flavor Solutions embeds co-developed recipes across multinational food makers. This combination generates $740.4M in free cash flow, supporting dividend growth and expanding value toward Potential value of $102.44.4,5,6
Premium Pricing and Shelf Leadership in Consumer Spices
McCormick commands a 37.9% gross margin in retail seasonings, significantly exceeding packaged food peers and reflecting enduring consumer brand equity.5
High Switching Costs in Custom Flavor Solutions
Co-developed seasoning blends and technical integration across multinational food makers generate $2,890.0M in sticky institutional revenue.6
McCormick is rated Buy based on its durable pricing power in consumer spices and high switching costs in custom flavor formulations.
Обзор компании
McCormick is a global leader in flavor. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED manufactures, market, and distribute spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the entire food and beverage industry–retailers, food manufacturers, and foodservice businesses. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED manages its business in two operating segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions, as described in Item 1 of this report. McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED operates in two business segments: Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments manufacture, market and distribute herbs, spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products throughout the world.
McCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED measures the performance of its business segments based on operating income, excluding special charges. See Note 15 of notes to its consolidated financial statements for additional information on its segment measures as well as for a reconciliation by segment of operating income, excluding special charges.
§2 Медвежий сценарийEN
Under a simulated stress scenario where retail private-label substitution accelerates and commercial accounts dual-source flavor inputs, consolidated revenue growth slows to 1.75% annually. Operating margins contract from 15.65% toward 10.94% as promotional allowances rise and unabsorbed factory overhead accumulates. In this environment, free cash flow generation declines, reducing balance sheet deleveraging capacity against $4,933.5M of total debt and restraining annual dividend expansion.
Private-label store brand substitution accelerates in retail grocery channels.6
Customer dual-sourcing limits production run volumes in B2B flavor systems.6
The downside path models retail shelf space losses to private-label offerings and contract renegotiations from concentrated commercial customers. Disconfirmation of downside risk would occur if retail grocery scanner data shows branded market share gains across core spices over consecutive quarters.
Как может разрушиться эта теза
Private-label share gains and Walmart retail buyer pushback trigger volume contraction and pricing concessions in the Consumer segment
Walmart represents 12.0% of revenue, and gross margins face promotional pressure from packaged food peers. If retail buyer negotiations push consumer growth below negative 2% annually, shelf space compression triggers brand concessions.6
FV impact
-13.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 12 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
01
Consumer Segment Organic Sales Growth
Volume contraction signals private-label shelf encroachment and customer resistance to branded pricing at major retailers, impairing gross margin stability and core cash generation.
Текущее значение:57.8% sales share in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиSustained decline below negative 2.0% YoY for two consecutive quarters
McCormick holds a narrow economic moat underpinned by brand loyalty in retail spices and customer switching costs in commercial flavor systems. In FY2025, consolidated gross margin reached 37.9%, significantly exceeding the packaged foods industry benchmark of 23.2% and peer levels at Campbell Soup (28.57%), Lamb Weston (20.68%), and Hormel Foods (15.74%). Operating income of $1,070.8M confirms pricing power and cost recovery across primary cooking categories.
Franchise durability is bounded by retail concentration, with Walmart accounting for 12.0% of revenue, and commercial exposure to PepsiCo at 12.0% of sales. Nevertheless, proprietary culinary recipes and category captaincy defend core shelf space, keeping advantages stable.
Экономическая прибыль
Return on invested capital of 8.86% exceeds the computed weighted average cost of capital of 6.92%, confirming positive economic profit generation across business cycles.1
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Consumer Brand Equity and Shelf Leadership — Consumer segment generated $3,950.3M representing 57.8% of FY2025 revenue, driving a consolidated 37.9% gross margin.Wide
02Flavor Solutions Technical Switching Costs — Flavor Solutions contributed $2,890.0M in FY2025 revenue through co-developed flavor systems that require costly reformulation to replace.Moderate
Известные угрозы для рва
Угроза
Серьёзность
Временная шкала
Митигация
Retail private-label penetration and grocery buyer pushback
medium
12 to 24 months
Tiered brand architecture and category management optimize retailer margin productivity.
B2B customer reformulation or dual-sourcing initiatives
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($57.60). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $899.6M after modeled capex of $175.0M, with terminal value at 65.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Steady volume growth across core culinary product lines.6
Preservation of operating margins through supply chain productivity initiatives.5
The base path expects steady compound growth driven by essential consumer seasoning demand and ongoing B2B flavor development partnerships. Disconfirmation would appear by mid-FY2027 if retail promotional pressure erodes shelf leadership or key retail partners demand pricing concessions.6
Faster international culinary penetration across developing markets.6
Expanded technical flavor partnerships with packaged food leaders.6
§7 Дерево решений по отчётностиEN
Превышение
Upgrade to Strong Buy; Consider expanding position sizing as operating margin outperformance confirms structural brand strength across global retail channels.
Accelerating volume growth across retail channels paired with robust pricing power would prove market share gains against store brands and warrant the highest rating band.
По плану
Maintain Buy; Maintain planned allocation and reinvest dividends while verifying quarterly cash conversion and shelf productivity.
Триггер: Organic sales growth and operating margins tracking consensus expectations.
Consistent financial delivery validates the compounder thesis and supports retaining the house position.
Ниже плана
Downgrade to Hold; Pause incremental capital commitments, re-evaluate customer concentration risks, and monitor retail order volumes.
Триггер: Volume contraction in Consumer or margin compression from customer pricing pushback.
Significant concessions to major retail partners or volume cancellations in Flavor Solutions would weaken cash generation and require a more defensive stance.
Качество прибыли
Reported earnings reflect high cash generation, with operating cash flow consistently outpacing net income, disciplined working capital management, and steady inventory turns that support long-term dividend distributions.5
Метрики для отслеживания перед отчётом
01
Метрика:
Consumer Segment Organic Volume Growth
ТекущееConsumer revenue represents the primary share of total company sales with stable demand.
Почему это важно
Measures whether brand demand expands independent of pricing actions, showing customer loyalty against store-brand spice alternatives.6
Capital allocation prioritizes continuous dividend growth, supported by thirty-seven consecutive years of increases, alongside disciplined reinvestment in plant automation and selective debt retirement. Share repurchases remain modest at $34.8M in FY2025, preserving cash to manage $4,933.5M in total debt.
Return on invested capital reflects sustained operating profitability across brand seasonings and high customer retention in custom flavor formulations.
Latest ROIC of 8.86% comfortably exceeds the computed WACC of 6.92%, confirming positive economic value addition.
Self-funded cash generation provides ample liquidity to cover annual dividend payments of $483.0M while steadily paying down term obligations.
Последняя выручка6,8 млрд $CAGR выручки +5,0 %
Операционная маржа15,7 %Фискальных периодов: 10
Последний свободный денежный поток740,4 млн $FY2025
Чистый долг3,5 млрд $FY2025
Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Выручка6,8 млрд $Себестоимость выручки−4,2 млрд $Валовая прибыль2,6 млрд $Операционные расходы−1,5 млрд $Операционная прибыль1,1 млрд $Внереализационные статьи и налоги−281,4 млн $Чистая прибыль789,4 млн $
Данные финансовой истории
Выручка
6 840 300 000 $
Себестоимость выручки
4 248 100 000 $
Валовая прибыль
2 592 200 000 $
Операционные расходы
1 521 400 000 $
Операционная прибыль
1 070 800 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги
-281 400 000 $
Чистая прибыль
789 400 000 $
Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Структура активовИсточники финансирования
Активы, всего13,2 млрд $Денежные средства95,9 млн $Оборотные активы2,1 млрд $Обязательства, всего7,4 млрд $Краткосрочные обязательства3,1 млрд $Акционерный капитал5,8 млрд $
Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего
13 200 400 000 $
Денежные средства
95 900 000 $
Оборотные активы
2 138 100 000 $
Обязательства, всего
7 432 300 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства
3 062 200 000 $
Акционерный капитал
5 768 100 000 $
Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Сверка операционного денежного потока
Чистая прибыль789,4 млн $Амортизация+231,3 млн $Компенсация акциями+46,2 млн $Прочие операционные корректировки−104,7 млн $Операционный денежный поток962,2 млн $
Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец
Денежные средства на начало186,1 млн $Операционный денежный поток+962,2 млн $Инвестиционный денежный поток−255,2 млн $Финансовый денежный поток−840,9 млн $Влияние обменного курса+43,7 млн $Денежные средства на конец95,9 млн $
962,2 млн $ − 221,8 млн $Свободный денежный поток 740,4 млн $
Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль
789 400 000 $
Операционный приток
1 066 900 000 $
Амортизация
231 300 000 $
Компенсация акциями
46 200 000 $
Операционный денежный поток
962 200 000 $
Операционный отток
104 700 000 $
Доступные денежные средства
1 192 000 000 $
Денежные средства на начало
186 100 000 $
Влияние обменного курса
43 700 000 $
Инвестиционный отток
255 200 000 $
Capex
221 800 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность
33 400 000 $
Финансовый отток
840 900 000 $
Денежные средства на конец
95 900 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток
-255 200 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток
-840 900 000 $
Выручка по операционным сегментамДоля общей выручки за 2025-11-30.
6,8 млрд $Общая выручка
Выручка по операционным сегментамДоля
Consumer4 млрд $57,8 %+2,6 % г/г
Flavor Solutions2,9 млрд $42,2 %+0,5 % г/г
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-01-22 · SEC EDGAR
Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по операционным сегментам
Выручка по операционным сегментам
Выручка
Доля
г/г
Consumer
4 млрд $
57,8 %
2,6 %
Flavor Solutions
2,9 млрд $
42,2 %
0,5 %
Выручка по регионамДоля общей выручки за 2025-11-30.
6,8 млрд $Общая выручка
Выручка по регионамДоля
Americas4,9 млрд $71,2 %+1,4 % г/г
Europe Middle East And Africa1,3 млрд $18,5 %+2,4 % г/г
Asia Pacific704 млн $10,3 %+3,2 % г/г
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-01-22 · SEC EDGAR
Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по регионам
Выручка по регионам
Выручка
Доля
г/г
Americas
4,9 млрд $
71,2 %
1,4 %
Europe Middle East And Africa
1,3 млрд $
18,5 %
2,4 %
Asia Pacific
704 млн $
10,3 %
3,2 %
Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.
Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.
РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-20.
McCormick & Company Incorporated (MKC) trades at 14.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.6x compares with a peer median of 9.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The J.M. Smucker Company, Hormel Foods Corporation, Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. and Campbell Soup Company, as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
§10 Отрасль и циклEN
Фаза цикла
Expansion
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation is 1.34x. McCormick operates with FY2025 capex of $221.8M representing 3.24% of revenue and 0.96x depreciation.5
Бычий цикл
Culinary premiumization, rising demand for ethnic seasonings, and restaurant food service recovery expand demand for both packaged spices and custom flavor formulations across international regions.
Медвежий цикл
Consumer grocery belt-tightening accelerates store-brand private label adoption, while packaged food conglomerates rationalise SKU counts and seek price concessions to defend their own margins.
Долгосрочные тренды
Тренд
Влияние
Примечание
Global Culinary Flavor Exploration and Home Cooking
positive
Younger demographics demand diverse spices and hot sauces, expanding center-store spice category sales faster than standard center-store packaged groceries.
Private-Label Grocery Penetration
negative
Retail grocers expand store-brand spice offerings at discount price points, forcing branded manufacturers to invest continuously in marketing and packaging innovation.
McCormick occupies category leadership in consumer seasonings and essential co-development status in B2B flavor systems, positioning it well above commoditized food processing peers.
§11 Управление позициейEN
Размер позиции
3-5%
A 3-5% target weighting is appropriate for a mature dividend compounder, balancing high cash flow visibility and dividend yield against customer concentration risks at Walmart and PepsiCo.6
Риск
Limit total portfolio allocation to 5% to constrain exposure to packaged food channel concentration and private-label grocery promotional cycles.
Транши входа
Уровень
Действие
Почему
Below $49.00
Initiate first tranche up to 2% portfolio weight
Offers an attractive discount to Fair value of $57.60 with favorable risk-reward asymmetry.
Below $46.00
Add second tranche to reach full 3-5% recommended position size
Provides enhanced margin of safety against retail promotional headwinds and debt refinancing costs.
Транши выхода
Уровень
Действие
$57.60
Trim one-third of position at Fair value to rebalance gains
$70.00
Trim additional one-third as valuation approaches Potential value range
Thirty-seven consecutive years of dividend increases backed by $740.4M in free cash flow and a 1.22x operating cash conversion ratio provide highly dependable capital return.4,5
Long-Term Quality Compounders
Buy
An 8.86% ROIC exceeding the 6.92% cost of capital confirms durable economic value creation, with shares trading at a wide margin of safety to Potential value of $102.44.1
Defensive Core Allocators
Buy
Essential recipe positioning and custom commercial flavor partnerships protect baseline cash flows against cyclical macro downturns.6
§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN
Действие
Покупать
McCormick represents a high-quality consumer compounder trading at an 18.2% discount to our Fair value of $57.60 on the analysis date of September 18, 2026.3
Strong free cash flow of $740.4M supports a durable dividend payout and steady balance sheet deleveraging, while proprietary flavor formulations protect economic margins.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Refinancing of maturing debt at higher borrowing rates combined with elevated equity risk premium increases corporate cost of capital by 200 bps
McCormick carries $4,933.5M of total debt against $95.9M in cash and current liabilities of $3,062.2M. With pre-tax debt cost at 5.76% relative to baseline WACC of 6.92%, refinancing above 8.92% would severely erode equity value.1,3,5
FV impact
-20.7%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
Dual-sourcing and reformulation at PepsiCo combined with retail grocery shelf slot compression drives bear case execution
PepsiCo accounts for 12.0% of revenue and Walmart accounts for 12.0%. Loss of custom formulation volume creates unabsorbed plant overhead, degrading consolidated operating margin toward historical levels of 13.60%.5,6
FV impact
-6.2%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 18 months
Margin erosion would indicate inability to pass through ingredient packaging inflation or severe price concessions demanded by retail channel partners, permanently lowering operating cash conversion.
Текущее значение:37.9% in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиContraction below 36.5% over any rolling twelve-month period
Stagnation across international culinary markets removes key geographic volume diversification, leaving consolidated revenue tethered to mature, low-growth North American retail grocery channels.
Текущее значение:$1,268.5M EMEA and $704.0M APAC in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиAnnual constant-currency growth dropping below 0.0% in any fiscal year
Higher refinancing expense on $4,933.5M of total debt increases interest burden and drains free cash flow, constraining dividend growth and balance sheet flexibility.
Текущее значение:5.76% as of 2026-09-20
Предупреждение, еслиEffective borrowing cost exceeding 7.50% on debt refinancings
Co-located technical development teams and proprietary recipe integration protect retention.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 78.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
The bull path reflects accelerated geographic expansion across EMEA and Asia Pacific, accompanied by premium brand mix shift and faster food service volume recovery. Disconfirmation would emerge if international sales decelerate or custom flavor contracts fail to expand product lines by late FY2027.6
ТекущееGross margin remains substantially higher than packaged food peer averages.
Почему это важно
Reveals whether cost increases in raw spices and packaging can be passed to retail and commercial partners without sacrificing gross profit.5
03
Метрика:
B2B Custom Flavor Formulation Retention
ТекущееFlavor Solutions delivers steady institutional volume across multinational food partners.
Почему это важно
Indicates customer switching costs and ongoing product co-development with global food manufacturers like PepsiCo.6
04
Метрика:
International Geographic Volume Expansion
ТекущееEurope and Asia Pacific provide meaningful regional diversification outside the domestic core.
Почему это важно
Diversifies top-line performance beyond the Americas and taps faster-growing culinary markets across Europe and Asia.6
