Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $89.9, high $162, with mid-point at $128.
Stock analysis

MS fair value $90–$162

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-08Следующее обновление: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
View archive
Цена
$193.09
▼ -65.03 (-33.68%)
Справедливая стоимость
$128
$90–$162
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 88/100
Потенциал роста
-33.7%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$108.85
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$304.6B
P/E fwd 15.2
Английский по умолчаниюRU
Показываем английский источник, пока идёт перевод
Этот отчёт ещё не переведён. Обновите страницу через несколько минут, когда очередь переводов его обработает.

§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $128 with high case $162.
  • Implied downside of 33.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$128
Margin of safety
-50.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$193.09Price
Low $89.88
Mid $128.06
High $161.78

MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale and brand prestige in
    Scale and brand prestige in Wealth Management ($5T+ client assets).
  • Top-three global ranking in Equities
    Top-three global ranking in Equities and Investment Banking.
  • Cycle upside
    Expanding global money supply, robust IPO/M&A activity, and rising equity markets driving AUM growth.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Under a severe stagflationary environment, the dual impact of plunging asset values on fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and paralyzed M&A/capital markets activity could collapse EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. towards the DDM floor of $71.45. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. reverses violently.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Severe Equity Market Drawdown

25%· Medium

A prolonged 20%+ market correction drives severe AUM attrition, compressing fee yields and crushing capital markets activity simultaneously.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
0-12 months

Wealth Management Margin Compression

15%· Low

Intensified competition for advisor talent and client cash sorting drives structurally lower net interest margins and fee compression.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Capital Penalties

10%· Low

Basel endgame or enhanced capital requirements force MS to hold significantly more equity, permanently impairing ROTCE.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
18-36 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Consecutive quarters of negative net new assets in Wealth Management.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained declines in net interest margin.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Surge in advisor attrition or elevated recruitment costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital markets revenue underperforming peer benchmarks (GS).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
ROTCE falling persistently below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$56.41B$50.21B$50.67B$57.62B$65.97B+4.0%
Валовая прибыль——————
Операционная прибыль——————
Чистая прибыль$15.03B$11.03B$9.09B$13.39B$16.86B+2.9%
EPS (разводнённая)—$6.15$5.18$7.95$10.21+13.5%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$25.27B$23.96B$25.46B$27.14B$30.25B+4.6%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
-1.06
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
—
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Полный отчёт по каждому покрываемому тикеру
Архив рекомендаций за 24 месяца
Брифинги списка наблюдения и алерты по изменению рекомендаций
Экспорт в PDF и DOCX на любом языке
Начать пробный период
Отмена в любое время.
BALANCE SHEET FAQ

MS balance sheet questions

  1. MS (MS)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

MS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $193 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $128 (range $89.9–$162), which implies roughly 33.7% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of MS also follow

Same archetype: financial