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NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $61.8, high $149, with mid-point at $106.
Stock analysis

NOW fair value $62–$149

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-19Следующее обновление: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$101.83
▲ +3.70 (+3.63%)
Справедливая стоимость
$106
$62–$149
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 82/100
Потенциал роста
+3.6%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$89.70
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$105.0B
P/E fwd 20.3
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $106 with high case $149.
  • Implied upside of 3.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$106
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$101.83Price
Low $61.76
Mid $105.53
High $148.71

NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Rapid generative AI workflow integration drives a new IT spending super-cycle, expanding ARPU.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

If forward revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. estimates drop below 15% without a commensurate drop in stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., the forward-earnings premium will collapse, exposing heavily burdened trailing cash realities.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

IT Budget Contraction

30%· Medium

Macro IT budget optimization slows seat growth significantly across enterprise clients.

FV impact
Downside to $61.76 floor.
Trigger
12-18 months

AI Monetization Failure

20%· Medium

Generative AI products fail to offset core market saturation, compressing revenue growth below 15%.

FV impact
20% multiple compression.
Trigger
24 months

Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Stock-based compensation continues to exceed 14.7% of revenue, impairing true cash conversion and depressing institutional demand.

FV impact
15% downside.
Trigger
6-12 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Operating margin failing to expand toward 20% in the next 12-24 months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward revenue growth estimates dropping below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 16% of revenue amidst plateauing seat growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention dipping below 120% indicating stalled cross-selling.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow margins compressing below 30% due to aggressive capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$7.25B$8.97B$10.98B$13.28B+22.4%
Валовая прибыль$5.67B$7.05B$8.70B$10.30B+22.0%
Операционная прибыль$355.0M$762.0M$1.36B$1.82B+72.6%
Чистая прибыль$325.0M$1.73B$1.43B$1.75B+75.2%
EPS (разводнённая)$0.32$1.68$1.37$1.67+73.5%
EBITDA$788.0M$1.32B$2.33B$3.02B+56.5%
R&D$1.77B$2.12B$2.54B$2.96B+18.7%
SG&A$3.55B$4.16B$4.79B$5.51B+15.8%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
3.11×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
11.7%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

NOW income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of NOW (NOW) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
FAQ

NOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $102 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $106 (range $61.8–$149), which implies roughly 3.6% upside to the midpoint.
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