Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)

NYSE: NSC · USD

$338

-1.46 (-0.4%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: NSC rated Sell

Norfolk Southern Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$185 / share

Potential value

$225 / share

Upside to FV

-40.8%

from $338

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$70.3B
Revenue (ttm)	13B
Net income (ttm)	2.7B
EPS (ttm)	$11.9
Shares out	224.6M
P/E (trailing)	28.4x
P/E (forward)	22.3x
Dividend	$5.40 (1.60%)
Volume	609,383
Beta	1.28

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 13B
Net income (ttm): 2.7B
EPS (ttm): $11.9
P/E (trailing): 28.4x
P/E (forward): 22.3x
Market cap: $70.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$11.14B	$12.75B	$12.16B	$12.12B	$12.18B	+2.3%
Gross profit	$4.37B	$4.73B	$6.10B	$3.76B	$5.17B	+4.3%
Operating income	$4.45B	$4.81B	$2.85B	$4.07B	$4.36B	-0.5%
Net income	$3.01B	$3.27B	$1.83B	$2.62B	$2.87B	-1.1%
EPS (diluted)	$12.11	$13.88	$8.02	$11.57	$12.75	+1.3%
EBITDA	$5.71B	$6.04B	$2.85B	$5.49B	$5.85B	+0.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$102.0M	$126.0M	$65.0M	$120.0M	$753.0M	+64.8%

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Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$185.33

-40.8% from spot

The modal base case, carrying a probability of 60.0%, reflects steady operational recovery and cost discipline. Operating margins normalize as planned efficiency initiatives take hold, while annual capital expenditures step down in line with reaffirmed management targets. Merchandise carload growth tracks moderate industrial expansion, supported by rail's fuel cost leadership over highway transport. However, because the shares trade at $313.00, the base case target of $185.33 represents an implied return of -40.8%, reflecting substantial multiple contraction toward normalized railroad valuation.

Reaffirmed capital expenditure guidance is achieved, normalizing annual network reinvestment
Operating margins expand gradually toward long-term historical norms as cost takeout targets are realized
Merchandise revenues maintain steady contract rate increases and stable traffic volumes
Terminal valuation multiples align with mature Class I railroad peer benchmarks

Bull20%

Price target

$224.54

-28.3% from spot

Under the bull scenario, with an assigned probability of 20.0%, scheduled railroading productivity accelerates rapidly. Train block speed and origination velocity eliminate network bottlenecks, allowing train sets to be removed from service and redeploying locomotive power and crews. Operating margins expand toward peer-leading levels while capital expenditures moderate below management guidance. Accelerated commercial development along eastern corridors drives robust merchandise volumes, yielding a target valuation of $224.54 and an implied return of -28.3% from the analysis price of $313.00.

Train block speed and origination velocity improvements enable significant train set removals and productivity gains
Operating margins expand toward Class I peer efficiency levels closing the historical performance gap
Capital expenditures decline below full-year guidance targets expanding free cash conversion
Industrial reshoring along the eastern network accelerates commercial merchandise traffic commitments

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($185.33). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
9.1%	$193	$194	$196	$198	$201
9.6%	$187	$189	$190	$192	$194
10.1%	$183	$184	$185	$187	$188
10.6%	$179	$180	$181	$182	$183
11.1%	$175	$176	$177	$178	$179

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E22.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E26.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE16.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC10.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All NSC indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

284

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 284 of 284 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000702165
Company name	Norfolk Southern Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	655844108
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	19,300
Employees change	-300
Employees growth	-1.53%
Enterprise value	$91.5B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1980
In index	SP500
Industry	Railroads
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US6558441084
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-09
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1997-10-10
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$76B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$338.27
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4011
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	NSC
U.S. state	Georgia
Website	https://www.norfolksouthern.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	26x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	20.43x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	24.69x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	22.59x
Earnings yield	3.53%
EV/Earnings	34.25x
EV/EBIT	21.03x
EV/EBITDA	15.86x
EV/FCF	55.76x
EV/Sales	7.08x
FCF / EV yield	1.79%
FCF yield	2.16%
Forward EV/Sales	6.54x
Forward P/E	23.82x
Forward P/S	5.43x
Graham number	141.36508
Graham upside	-58.38%
Industry forward P/E	22.32x
Industry P/E	25.69x
Lynch fair value	$59.62
Lynch upside	-82.44%
P/B ratio	4.56x
P/E ratio	28.37x
P/FCF ratio	46.32x
P/OCF ratio	20.17x
P/S ratio	5.88x
PEG ratio	3.7x
Price / tangible book value	4.56x
Price/EBITDA ratio	13.17x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	33.68%
EBITDA margin	44.68%
Effective tax rate	21.66%
FCF margin	12.71%
Gross margin	44.68%
Operating margin	33.68%
Pretax margin	26.43%
Profit margin	20.71%
Profit per employee	$138,912
Profitable quarters	106
Profitable years	35
Revenue per employee	$671,658
ROA	6.03%
ROA (5Y)	6.8%
ROCE	10.33%
ROE	16.84%
ROE (5Y)	19.77%
ROIC	10.59%
ROIC (5Y)	11.97%
Tax / revenue	5.72%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-9.05%
EPS growth (Q)	6.65%
EPS growth (QoQ)	3.37%
EPS growth 10Y	8.24%
EPS growth 3Y	9.27%
EPS growth 5Y	0.52%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	2
FCF growth	-21.53%
FCF growth (Q)	2.22%
FCF growth (QoQ)	19.67%
FCF growth 3Y	12.98%
FCF growth 5Y	-9.53%
Gross profit growth	2.01%
Gross profit growth (Q)	8.7%
Gross profit growth 3Y	0.99%
Gross profit growth 5Y	0.78%
Net income growth	-9.39%
Net income growth (Q)	6.75%
Net income growth (QoQ)	3.55%
Net income growth 3Y	8.71%
Net income growth 5Y	-1.65%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	-10.97%
OCF growth (Q)	4.01%
OCF growth (QoQ)	25.43%
OCF growth 10Y	2.31%
OCF growth 3Y	4.62%
OCF growth 5Y	-1.99%
Operating income growth	1.63%
Operating income growth (Q)	10.04%
Operating income growth 3Y	0.15%
Operating income growth 5Y	-0.16%
Revenue growth	5.99%
Revenue growth (Q)	13.63%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	1.76%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.72%
Revenue growth 3Y	1.71%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.6%
Revenue growth quarters	3
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.1B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.4B
EBIT	$4.4B
EBITDA	$5.8B
EPS	$11.92
FCF per share	$7.33
Financing cash flow	$-1.9B
Free cash flow	$1.6B
Gross profit	$5.8B
Income taxes	$742M
Investing cash flow	$-1.8B
Net borrowing	$-623M
Net cash flow	$180M
Net income	$2.7B
Operating income	$4.4B
Revenue	$13B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.44
Book value per share	$74.48
Debt / EBITDA	2.76
Debt / equity	1.02
Debt / FCF	10.41
Interest coverage	5.58
Long-term assets	$42.6B
Long-term liabilities	$25.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-15.5B
Net cash / market cap	-20.38%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.68
Net debt / equity	0.93
Net debt / FCF	9.44
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$36.9B
Shareholders' equity	$16.7B
Tangible book value	$16.7B
Tangible book value per share	$74.48
Total assets	$45.9B
Total cash	$1.6B
Total debt	$17.1B
Total liabilities	$29.2B
WACC	9.89%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.29
Current assets	$3.3B
Current liabilities	$3.7B
Current ratio	0.9
Inventory turnover	22.06
Net working capital	$-1.3B
Quick ratio	0.77
Working capital	$-356M
Working capital turnover	-30.72

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.35%
Dividend growth	0%
Dividend growth (10Y)	8.63%
Dividend growth (3Y)	0%
Dividend growth (5Y)	5.36%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-11-20
Dividend payment years	45
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$5.40
Dividend yield	1.6%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-06
FCF payout ratio	73.64%
Last dividend	$1.35
Payout ratio	45.28%
Shareholder yield	1.94%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	271.19%
10Y return CAGR	16.34%
10Y total return	354.14%
150-day SMA	$319.55
15Y price change	351.14%
15Y return CAGR	13.04%
15Y total return	528.97%
1D price change	-0.43%
1M price change	8.33%
1M total return	8.33%
1W price change	4.15%
1W total return	4.15%
1Y price change	20.4%
1Y return CAGR	22.53%
1Y total return	22.52%
20-day SMA	$324.12
200-day SMA	$314.56
20Y price change	535.82%
20Y return CAGR	12.19%
20Y total return	897.64%
3M price change	-1.24%
3M total return	-0.85%
3Y price change	83.75%
3Y return CAGR	25.1%
3Y total return	95.8%
50-day SMA	$326.53
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$358.60
52-week high date	2026-07-23
52-week low	$277.80
52-week low date	2026-01-20
5Y price change	18.12%
5Y return CAGR	5.58%
5Y total return	31.18%
6M price change	6.33%
6M total return	7.21%
All-time high	$358.60
All-time high date	2026-07-23
All-time low	$4.47
All-time low date	1982-06-18
Average true range (ATR)	$5.88
Average volume	801.7K
Beta (1Y)	-0.01
Beta (2Y)	0.69
Beta (5Y)	1.28
Change from 52-week high	-5.67%
Change from 52-week low	21.77%
Change from all-time high	-5.44%
Change from all-time low	7,482.29%
Change from open	-0.07%
Day's gap	-0.36%
Dollar volume	$206.1M
High price	$342.14
Low price	$337.82
Monthly RSI	61.12
Open price	$338.50
Position in 52-week range	10.42%
Premarket change	-1.34%
Premarket close	$339.74
Premarket price	$335.20
Previous close	$339.74
Price vs 150-day SMA	6.11%
Price vs 20-day SMA	4.62%
Price vs 200-day SMA	7.79%
Price vs 50-day SMA	3.84%
Relative volume	0.76
RSI	65.02
Sharpe ratio	0.88
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.79
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.2
Sortino ratio	1.68
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.53
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.54
Volume	609.4K
Weekly RSI	59.96
YTD price change	17.44%
YTD total return	18.94%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	224.3M
Float percentage	99.84%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.09%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.35%
Shares held by insiders	0.05%
Shares held by institutions	76.94%
Shares outstanding	224.6M
Short % of float	3.19%
Short % of shares	3.18%
Short ratio	6.6 days

Deeper analysis on NSC

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this NSC report

What is the latest published NSC stock rating?

Norfolk Southern Corporation is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full NSC analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/NSC/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for NSC?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives NSC a fair value of USD 185 and a potential value of USD 225. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the NSC page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellNSC · Fair value $185-40.8%

Read full analysis →

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)

Our latest published analysis: NSC rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · NSC

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All NSC indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on NSC

Frequently asked questions

История рейтингов

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	4.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	5.5