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PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $8.05, high $14.0, with mid-point at $11.0.
Stock analysis

PATH UiPath Inc. fair value $11–$14

PATH
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-10Следующее обновление: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Information Technology
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Цена
$10.79
▲ +0.19 (+1.76%)
Справедливая стоимость
$11
$11–$14
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 84/100
Потенциал роста
+1.8%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$9.33
buy below · 15%
Капитализация
$5.7B
P/E fwd 12.0
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $11 with high case $14.
  • Implied upside of 1.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$11
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$10.79Price
FV $10.98
High $13.97

PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs embedded deep
    High switching costs embedded deep within enterprise legacy workflows.
  • Incumbent scale and broad integrations
    Incumbent scale and broad integrations in traditional RPA markets.
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise AI adoption drives massive structural process orchestration needs across sectors.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A recessionary enterprise software budget freeze coupled with Microsoft bundling forces drastic pricing cuts. Base case growth of 9% plummets to 0%, while fixed R&D and SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs severely destroy GAAP margins.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

AI Generative Disruption

· Medium

Generative AI agents bypass traditional RPA workflows entirely, collapsing gross margins and pipeline growth.

FV impact
Severe downside toward the FCFF DCF floor of $4.48 per share.
Trigger
12-24 months

Structural Margin Stagnation

· High

Intense competitive pricing pressure from Microsoft prevents operating margins from reaching the 25% terminal assumption.

FV impact
Fair value composite drops aggressively to the $8.05 bear case.
Trigger
24-36 months

Uncontrolled SBC Escalation

· Low

Inability to retain engineering talent forces higher stock-based compensation, permanently impairing free cash flow to equity.

FV impact
Resets terminal valuation multiple structurally below 15x.
Trigger
12-18 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Net revenue retention falling sustainably below the 110% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remaining stubbornly above 18% of revenue without top-line acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degradation below 80% indicating severe pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin trajectory missing the required 25% terminal target path.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Measurable market share loss in the standalone orchestration segment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Выручка—$1.06B$1.31B$1.43B$1.61B+11.1%
Валовая прибыль—$878.5M$1.11B$1.18B$1.34B+11.1%
Операционная прибыль—$-348.3M$-164.7M$-162.6M$56.8M—
Чистая прибыль—$-328.4M$-89.9M$-73.7M$282.3M—
EPS (разводнённая)$-1.16$-0.60$-0.16$-0.13——
EBITDA—$-329.6M$-142.1M$-145.3M$73.7M—
R&D—$285.8M$332.1M$380.7M$385.2M+7.8%
SG&A—$941.1M$944.8M$964.6M$897.6M-1.2%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
7 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
3.41
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.32×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
2.1%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

PATH — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PATH trades close to fair value. The current price is $10.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $11.0 (range $8.05–$14.0), which implies roughly 1.8% upside to the midpoint.

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