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SMCI trades against a final fair-value range of $48.45-$105.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $48.5, high $105, with mid-point at $71.4.
Stock analysis

SMCI fair value $48–$105

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-10Следующее обновление: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Цена
$35.37
▲ +36.02 (+101.84%)
Справедливая стоимость
$71
$48–$105
Рекомендация
Активно покупать
confidence 75/100
Потенциал роста
+101.8%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$60.68
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$21.2B
P/E fwd 11.0
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $71 with high case $105.
  • Implied upside of 101.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 75/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$71
Margin of safety
+50.5%
Confidence
75/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$35.37Price
Low $48.45
Mid $71.39
High $105.45

SMCI trades against a final fair-value range of $48.45-$105.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • First-to-market advantage in specialized liquid
    First-to-market advantage in specialized liquid cooling for AI servers
  • Tight engineering integration with Nvidia
    Tight engineering integration with Nvidia for accelerated time-to-market
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks ($36.75) views SMCI strictly as a peak-cycle value trap with immediate mean-reverting multiples.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A sudden cyclical downturn in AI infrastructure build-outs alongside a working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). trap could freeze liquidity. SMCI's cash conversion is exceptionally poor; an inventory glut and forced price cuts would rapidly deplete its cash buffer, pushing free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. deeply negative and forcing dilutive capital raises.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

AI Capex Normalization

· Medium

Hyperscaler demand plateaus before broad enterprise demand matures, stranding SMCI with excess manufacturing capacity.

FV impact
-32% to $48.45 Floor
Trigger
12-24 months

Nvidia GPU Allocation Squeeze

· Low

Nvidia prioritizes other OEMs or direct hyperscaler relationships, choking SMCI's core revenue growth engine.

FV impact
-25% to Fair Value
Trigger
6-12 months

Structurally Crushed Margins

· High

Aggressive pricing wars in commodity server assembly compress SMCI operating margins below 4%, destroying intrinsic owner earnings.

FV impact
-40% to Fair Value
Trigger
12-18 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Operating margins slipping below 5.0% for two consecutive quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Days in inventory increasing significantly against historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major cloud provider switching to white-box or competitor infrastructureMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising cost of debt on short-term working capital facilitiesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward EPS internal valuation cross-checks downgrades exceeding 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Выручка$5.20B$7.12B$14.99B$21.97B+61.7%
Валовая прибыль$800.0M$1.28B$2.06B$2.43B+44.8%
Операционная прибыль$335.2M$761.1M$1.21B$1.25B+55.2%
Чистая прибыль$285.2M$640.0M$1.15B$1.05B+54.4%
EPS (разводнённая)$0.53$1.14$2.01$1.68+46.7%
EBITDA$375.7M$799.7M$1.27B$1.33B+52.4%
R&D$272.3M$307.3M$463.5M$636.6M+32.7%
SG&A$192.6M$214.6M$387.1M$540.4M+41.1%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
5 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
4.71
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.44
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.58×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
9.1%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

SMCI scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for SMCI (SMCI) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

SMCI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SMCI looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $35.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $71.4 (range $48.5–$105), which implies roughly 101.8% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: cyclical