Необязательная аналитика продукта
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internal valuation cross-checks: private calibration expectations ($232.74) ignore real economic cost of dilution.
Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).
Snowflake is a high-growth, foundational data platform benefiting from secular tailwinds in cloud data migration and AI data readiness. Despite stellar revenue growth and strong FCF generation, profound GAAP unprofitability driven by outsized SBC requires careful dilution modeling.
Snowflake is a high-growth, foundational data platform benefiting from secular tailwinds in cloud data migration and AI data readiness. Despite stellar revenue growth and strong FCF generation, profound GAAP unprofitability driven by outsized requires careful modeling.
High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).
Hold. Snowflake possesses a dominant data moat but is hampered by structurally dilutive compensation that heavily caps intrinsic per-share value.
Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company's platform includes artificial intelligence (AI) Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data applications, and share data and data products, as well as applies AI for solving business problems. It serves financial services, advertising, media and entertainment, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, technology, telecom, travel and hospitality, and government and defense industries, as well as the public sector. the company has a collaboration with OpenAI, L.L.C. for the development of AI solutions for joint enterprise customers that deliver tangible return on investment. The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Menlo Park, California.
A prolonged macro downturn accelerates enterprise cloud optimization. Snowflake's consumption-based model experiences sharp revenue deceleration. Consequently, terminal growth drops to 2%, and operating margin stalls at 15%.
Prolonged IT cost-cutting stalls Snowflake's growth trajectory. High SBC continues to deeply dilute shareholders, preventing the realization of true per-share value creation. Multiple compresses toward mature legacy tech levels.
AWS, GCP, and Azure bundle native data platforms at zero margin, stalling Snowflake's customer acquisition and forcing massive pricing concessions.
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
Declining net expansion rates curtail product consumption growth across existing enterprise accounts, indicating reduced workload deployment and challenging the long-term scale growth thesis for data warehousing.
Текущее значение:29.2% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Предупреждение, если< 15.0% for two consecutive quarters
High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
Network effects from data sharing ecosystem
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
Data gravity intensifies dramatically. Snowflake successfully monetizes AI workloads, sustaining 25%+ growth longer than expected and leveraging gross margins past 75% to generate massive mature cash flows.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Warning level: < 15.0% for two consecutive quarters. Declining net expansion rates curtail product consumption growth across existing enterprise accounts, indicating reduced workload deployment and challenging the long-term scale growth thesis for data warehousing.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Выручка | 4 683 946 000 |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 1 537 805 000 |
| Валовая прибыль | 3 146 141 000 |
| Операционные расходы | 4 581 306 000 |
| Операционная прибыль | -1 435 165 000 |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | 103 549 000 |
| Чистая прибыль | -1 331 616 000 |
| Активы, всего | 9 132 495 000 |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 2 828 163 000 |
| Оборотные активы | 5 742 612 000 |
| Обязательства, всего | 7 208 393 000 |
| Краткосрочные обязательства | 4 421 691 000 |
| Акционерный капитал | 1 924 102 000 |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-05-10.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-31 | 2,1 млрд | -752,5 млн | -796,7 млн | 545,6 млн | 495,8 млн | 49,8 млн | 63,5 млн | 861,5 млн | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 939,9 млн | 251,7 млн | -40,8 % | — | 10,5 % | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 2,8 млрд | -729,3 млн | -836,1 млн | 848,1 млн | 750,2 млн | 98 млн | 119,9 млн | 1,2 млрд | 591,7 млн | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1,8 млрд | 288 млн | -39,0 % | — | 11,3 % | — |
| 2025-01-31 | 3,6 млрд | -1,1 млрд | -1,3 млрд | 959,8 млн | 884,1 млн | 75,7 млн | 182,5 млн | 1,5 млрд | 1,9 млрд | — | 2,3 млрд | — | — | — | — | 2,6 млрд | 2,7 млрд | -40,2 % | — | 11,3 % | — |
| 2026-01-31 | 4,7 млрд | -1,1 млрд | -1,3 млрд | 1,2 млрд | 1,1 млрд | 104,7 млн | 220,4 млн | 1,6 млрд | 873,5 млн | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2,8 млрд | 2,7 млрд | -30,6 % | — | 10,8 % | — |
SNOW trades at 62.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.0x; EV/EBITDA of -39.9x against a peer median of 18.6x; 6 peers.
Aggressive reinvestment into R&D and aggressive SBC to secure specialized talent.
Accelerating enterprise cloud migrations and AI data-readiness workloads.
IT budget scrutiny driving extreme cloud cost optimization and consumption pauses.
Aggressive reinvestment into R&D and aggressive SBC to secure specialized talent.
Limit to maximum 2% of portfolio given binary valuation risks and lack of current GAAP profitability.
Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.
Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).
Valuation: Fairly valued at $154.60; fully priced for execution perfection.
Hold. Upside is fully priced in at current multiples, and massive SBC remains a structural headwind to true shareholder returns.
Upside case: internal valuation cross-checks: private calibration expectations ($232.74) ignore real economic cost of dilution. Downside case: Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Customers migrate AI/ML workloads to specialized compute engines, relegating Snowflake to legacy storage and compressing terminal EV/Revenue multiples below 5x.
Excessive stock compensation expense causes persistent per-share losses and severe equity dilution, preventing the realization of GAAP profitability and eroding per-share equity value for common shareholders.
Текущее значение:-3.95 for the period ended 2026-01-31
Предупреждение, если< -5.00 over trailing twelve months
Shrinking gross margins suggest increased cloud infrastructure hosting costs and aggressive price discounting to secure renewals, diminishing gross margin expansion leverage across multi-cloud deployments.
Текущее значение:67.2% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Предупреждение, если< 62.0% for two consecutive quarters
Persistent deep operational losses demonstrate that heavy research and sales investments fail to generate sufficient operational leverage, delaying the company's path toward self-sustaining profitability and cash flow generation.
Текущее значение:-30.6% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Предупреждение, если< -35.0% for two consecutive quarters
Losing major enterprise accounts to competitive cloud and lakehouse platforms impairs recurring platform usage, widening bottom-line net losses and weakening competitive positioning across enterprise data infrastructure.
Текущее значение:-28.4% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Предупреждение, если< -35.0% for two consecutive quarters
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
| Commoditization of compute layer | medium | Monitor | Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Snowflake sustains robust top-line growth but structural SBC dilution persists. Operating margins converge to 25% rather than software industry averages. The 8x terminal multiple appropriately caps upside relative to internal valuation cross-checks.
Warning level: < -5.00 over trailing twelve months. Excessive stock compensation expense causes persistent per-share losses and severe equity dilution, preventing the realization of GAAP profitability and eroding per-share equity value for common shareholders.
Warning level: < 62.0% for two consecutive quarters. Shrinking gross margins suggest increased cloud infrastructure hosting costs and aggressive price discounting to secure renewals, diminishing gross margin expansion leverage across multi-cloud deployments.
Warning level: < -35.0% for two consecutive quarters. Losing major enterprise accounts to competitive cloud and lakehouse platforms impairs recurring platform usage, widening bottom-line net losses and weakening competitive positioning across enterprise data infrastructure.
| Маржа |
|---|
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | $52.7B | 62.7x | 11.3x | -39.9x | — | — |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc. | 17.4x | 2.9x | 22.9x | 35.3% | 14.6% | |
| CRM | Salesforce Inc. | 12.2x | 3.6x | 14.0x | 12.4% | 19.2% | |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. | 47.5x | 11.6x | 64.1x | 11.3% | 15.7% | |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 15.0x | 5.5x | 18.6x | 23.5% | 18.4% | |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | 9.6x | 4.2x | 10.7x | 58.8% | 38.8% |
