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If net income grows and weighted-average diluted shares fall, earnings per share can outgrow revenue.
FY2026 branded postpaid-phone revenue falls below $49.44 billion.
Strong Buy. The report used a $181.69 price on 2026-09-08, below Fair value of $253.05. The main risk is postpaid-phone revenue contraction, which would weaken sales, fixed-cost absorption and cash generation. Strong FY2025 free cash flow is the clearest upside support.34
The Strong Buy rating reflects the report-date price standing below Fair value. Position size and entry pacing remain separate judgments governed by the operating tests set out below.
The report used a $181.69 price from 2026-09-08. Fair value is $253.05, with of $588.67.
The main risk is FY2026 branded postpaid-phone revenue below its $49.44 billion FY2025 level. Because the line represented 56.0% of FY2025 revenue, a decline would lower consolidated sales unless other revenue offsets it. Weaker sales could then pressure operating profit and cash generation.56
The case can work because FY2025 free cash flow reached $18.00 billion after $9.96 billion of capital spending. Sustained cash could support shareholder returns and value per share.45
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.1
Strong Buy because the report-date price stands below Fair value, while upside still depends on preserving a concentrated postpaid-phone revenue base.6
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.1
Strong Buy because the report-date price stands below Fair value, while upside still depends on preserving a concentrated postpaid-phone revenue base.6
T-MOBILE US, INC. provides wireless communications and broadband services through a variety of service plan options. T-MOBILE US, INC. also offers for sale to customers a wide selection of wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, 5G broadband gateways and other mobile communication devices that are manufactured by various suppliers.
T-MOBILE US, INC. provides wireless communications and broadband services to a variety of customers needing connectivity, but focus primarily on two categories of customers:
The downside becomes serious when revenue concentration, weaker margins and higher capital needs occur together. Sales and cash would then weaken while refinancing absorbs more of the remaining cash.
Lower revenue weakens fixed-cost absorption, while higher capital needs leave less cash for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction. The case is disconfirmed if both revenue and cash remain resilient.
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
T-Mobile’s operating base is the revenue pool supporting consolidated sales and profit. Branded postpaid-phone revenue was $49.44 billion of $88.31 billion in FY2025, or 56.0%. That scale is also concentration, not proof of switching costs, network superiority, cost advantage or regulatory protection. Those structural factors remain unknown from the cited evidence. Direct telecom and adjacent connectivity comparisons therefore constrain the durability assessment.
FY2025 free cash flow was $18.00 billion after $9.96 billion of capital spending. This shows cash remaining after capital spending for that year, but it does not establish durable switching costs or another structural advantage.45
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($253.05). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $17.6B after modeled capex of $10.0B, with terminal value at 72.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
This path requires FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS to track analyst consensus forecasts dated 2026-09-09. Annual free cash flow must also stay above the stated threshold. A postpaid-revenue decline or adjusted EPS below the dated analyst consensus range would disconfirm it.146
Outperformance would matter most if revenue and EPS improve together rather than through a temporary cost shift.
Results in line would preserve near-term support without proving that stronger earnings growth lasts beyond FY2027.
A miss would weaken the case that stable margins and fewer shares can lift earnings per share faster than revenue.
In FY2025, operating cash flow exceeded net income, while that year also required capital spending. This describes the observed relationship only; it does not establish the durability of earnings or future cash.5
FY2025 operating cash flow was $27.95 billion, while $9.96 billion of capital spending left $18.00 billion of free cash flow. This establishes cash after capital spending for that year, not its persistence. The FY2025 result does not establish what later years will require.45
Total debt was $120.43 billion as of 2026-09-09, retrieved 2026-09-09T03:15:41+00:00. Strong cash flow supports capital returns, but refinancing needs can compete with dividends, repurchases and network investment.
A directly comparable dated return-on-invested-capital measure is not used, so the direction is not stated.
WACC was 5.8574% as of 2026-09-09; no return spread is asserted.
Fiscal year ended 2025-12-31; retrieved 2026-09-09T12:08:03+00:00.
Cash after network spending can support shareholder returns, provided capital needs do not rise.
1.073 billion end-period shares versus 1.131 billion FY2025 diluted-average shares.
A lower share burden can support earnings per share, but continued reduction remains conditional.
| Выручка | 88 309 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Себестоимость выручки | 46 241 000 000 $ |
| Валовая прибыль | 42 068 000 000 $ |
| Операционные расходы | 23 789 000 000 $ |
| Операционная прибыль | 18 279 000 000 $ |
| Внереализационные статьи и налоги | -7 287 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 10 992 000 000 $ |
| Активы, всего | 219 237 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Денежные средства | 5 598 000 000 $ |
| Оборотные активы | 24 461 000 000 $ |
| Обязательства, всего | 160 034 000 000 $ |
| Краткосрочные обязательства | 24 500 000 000 $ |
| Акционерный капитал | 59 203 000 000 $ |
| Чистая прибыль | 10 992 000 000 $ |
|---|---|
| Операционный приток | 27 950 000 000 $ |
| Амортизация | 13 508 000 000 $ |
| Компенсация акциями | 829 000 000 $ |
| Прочие операционные корректировки | 2 621 000 000 $ |
| Операционный денежный поток | 27 950 000 000 $ |
| Доступные денежные средства | 33 664 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на начало | 5 713 000 000 $ |
| Влияние обменного курса | 1 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный отток | 17 607 000 000 $ |
| Capex | 9 955 000 000 $ |
| Прочая инвестиционная деятельность | 7 652 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый отток | 10 081 000 000 $ |
| Чистое привлечение долга | 4 559 000 000 $ |
| Выкуп акций | 9 974 000 000 $ |
| Выплаченные дивиденды | 4 121 000 000 $ |
| Прочая финансовая деятельность | 545 000 000 $ |
| Денежные средства на конец | 5 976 000 000 $ |
| Инвестиционный денежный поток | -17 607 000 000 $ |
| Финансовый денежный поток | -10 081 000 000 $ |
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Выручка по направлениям бизнеса | Выручка | Доля | г/г |
|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Postpaid Revenue Phone | 49,4 млрд $ | 56 % | 8 % |
| Product Equipment | 16 млрд $ | 18,1 % | 12 % |
| Branded Prepaid Revenue | 10,5 млрд $ | 11,9 % | 0,9 % |
| Branded Postpaid Revenue Other | 8,5 млрд $ | 9,6 % | 29,1 % |
| Wholesale And Other Service Revenue | 2,9 млрд $ | 3,3 % | -16,3 % |
| Product And Service Other | 1 млрд $ | 1,2 % | 7,5 % |
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-09.
| Период | Выручка | EBITDA | Чистая прибыль | Операционный денежный поток | Свободный денежный поток | Capex | Амортизация | Компенсация акциями | Выкуп акций | Выплаченные дивиденды | Чистое привлечение долга | Инвестиционный денежный поток | Финансовый денежный поток | Денежные средства на начало | Денежные средства на конец | Денежные средства и инвестиции | Общий долг | Операционная маржа | ROIC | WACC | Спред ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 37,5 млрд $ | 10,3 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | -1,9 млрд $ | 4,7 млрд $ | 6,2 млрд $ | 235 млн $ | 0 $ | 55 млн $ | — | -2,3 млрд $ | 463 млн $ | — | 5,5 млрд $ | 5,5 млрд $ | 24,8 млрд $ | 10,8 % | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 40,6 млрд $ | 10,8 млрд $ | 4,5 млрд $ | 3,8 млрд $ | -1,4 млрд $ | 5,2 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | 306 млн $ | 427 млн $ | 55 млн $ | — | -6,7 млрд $ | -1,4 млрд $ | 5,5 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 30,9 млрд $ | 12,0 % | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 43,3 млрд $ | 11,8 млрд $ | 2,9 млрд $ | 3,9 млрд $ | -1,6 млрд $ | 5,5 млрд $ | 6,5 млрд $ | 424 млн $ | 1,1 млрд $ | 0 $ | — | -579 млн $ | -3,3 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 15,5 млрд $ | 12,3 % | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 45 млрд $ | 12,4 млрд $ | 3,5 млрд $ | 6,8 млрд $ | 433 млн $ | 6,4 млрд $ | 6,6 млрд $ | 495 млн $ | 0 $ | 0 $ | — | -4,1 млрд $ | -2,4 млрд $ | 1,2 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 25 млрд $ | 12,7 % | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 68,4 млрд $ | 20,4 млрд $ | 3,1 млрд $ | 8,6 млрд $ | -2,4 млрд $ | 11 млрд $ | 14,2 млрд $ | 694 млн $ | 19,5 млрд $ | 54,1 млрд $ | — | -12,7 млрд $ | 13 млрд $ | 1,5 млрд $ | 10,5 млрд $ | 10,4 млрд $ | 71,1 млрд $ | 9,7 % | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 80,1 млрд $ | 23,1 млрд $ | 3 млрд $ | 13,9 млрд $ | 1,6 млрд $ | 12,3 млрд $ | 16,4 млрд $ | 540 млн $ | 0 $ | 0 $ | — | -19,4 млрд $ | 1,7 млрд $ | 10,5 млрд $ | 6,7 млрд $ | 6,6 млрд $ | 74,2 млрд $ | 8,6 % | — | 3,6 % | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 79,6 млрд $ | 20,2 млрд $ | 2,6 млрд $ | 16,8 млрд $ | 2,8 млрд $ | 14 млрд $ | 13,7 млрд $ | 595 млн $ | 3 млрд $ | 0 $ | -3,1 млрд $ | -12,4 млрд $ | -6,5 млрд $ | 6,7 млрд $ | 4,7 млрд $ | 4,5 млрд $ | 72 млрд $ | 8,2 % | — | 5,9 % | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 78,6 млрд $ | 27,2 млрд $ | 8,3 млрд $ | 18,6 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | 9,8 млрд $ | 12,8 млрд $ | 667 млн $ | 13,1 млрд $ | 747 млн $ | 2,2 млрд $ | -5,8 млрд $ | -12,1 млрд $ | 4,7 млрд $ | 5,3 млрд $ | 5,1 млрд $ | 75 млрд $ | 18,2 % | — | 5,2 % | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 81,4 млрд $ | 31 млрд $ | 11,3 млрд $ | 22,3 млрд $ | 13,5 млрд $ | 8,8 млрд $ | 12,9 млрд $ | 649 млн $ | 11,2 млрд $ | 3,3 млрд $ | 2,1 млрд $ | -9,1 млрд $ | -12,8 млрд $ | 5,3 млрд $ | 5,7 млрд $ | 5,4 млрд $ | 78,3 млрд $ | 22,1 % | — | 6,1 % | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 88,3 млрд $ | 31,3 млрд $ | 11 млрд $ | 28 млрд $ | 18 млрд $ | 10 млрд $ | 13,5 млрд $ | 829 млн $ | 10 млрд $ | 4,1 млрд $ | 4,6 млрд $ | -17,6 млрд $ | -10,1 млрд $ | 5,7 млрд $ | 6 млрд $ | 5,6 млрд $ | 86,3 млрд $ | 20,7 % | — | 5,5 % | — |
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) trades at 12.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 9.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.1x compares with a peer median of 7.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., The Walt Disney Company and Comcast Corporation, as of 2026-09-09.
Industry capital spending equals 1.05 times depreciation, while T-Mobile spent $9.96 billion in FY2025.5
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.
A weaker cycle would feature slower demand and stronger price responses from direct telecom or bundled-connectivity rivals. That would pressure revenue and customer economics.
T-Mobile enters this phase with a large postpaid-phone base and strong FY2025 cash generation, but those strengths remain exposed to recurring network spending.46
No portfolio percentage is prescribed; sizing stays the reader's decision. The $181.69 report-date price is below Fair value of $253.05. However, FY2027 analyst consensus adjusted EPS forecasts dated 2026-09-09 span $11.50-$16.58. Total debt was $120.43 billion as of 2026-09-09. That forecast spread and debt load argue for staged rather than concentrated exposure.13
Do not manage the position from Potential value alone. Track revenue concentration, annual free cash flow, FY2027 EPS and financing costs together.
Fair value exceeds the report-date price, so existing holders can add, while the wide valuation range and revenue concentration argue for staged additions.6
Enter in stages and confirm that postpaid-phone revenue and annual free cash flow remain above their stated thresholds.
FY2025 cash generation supports capital returns, but debt and recurring capital spending can compete for that cash.34
Strong Buy at the $181.69 report-date price, which stands below Fair value of $253.05.3
FY2025 free cash flow supports upside, but branded postpaid-phone revenue was $49.44 billion and FY2025 capital spending was $9.96 billion. Total debt adds another claim on cash, keeping the outcome conditional.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Competitive pricing or acquisition spending pushes normalized operating margin below 17.7%, reducing profit and cash generation.
Annual free cash flow falls below $13 billion, reducing capacity for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction.45
FY2027 adjusted EPS falls below $11.50, showing that earnings per share failed to grow as expected.1
WACC rises above 6.8574%, reducing the present value of long-duration cash flows.2
FY2030 revenue growth falls below 1.5%, weakening the long-run cash and earnings path.
Lower pricing or higher customer-acquisition spending would leave less operating profit from each revenue dollar and weaken free cash flow.
Текущее значение:20.7% normalized path.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow 17.7% within 18 months.
Less cash after capital spending would shrink the pool available for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction. If persistent, that would weaken capital returns and the lower-share-burden route to per-share value.
Текущее значение:$18.00 billion in FY2025.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow $13 billion in any fiscal year through FY2028.
A result below the dated analyst consensus range would show that adjusted EPS missed even its low-end FY2027 forecast. That would weaken the near-term per-share earnings case.
Текущее значение:$13.90 mean analyst consensus adjusted EPS forecast for FY2027, dated and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Предупреждение, еслиBelow $11.50 for FY2027.
Higher financing costs would reduce the present value of future cash and could divert cash from shareholder returns toward debt service.
Текущее значение:5.8574% as of 2026-09-09.
Предупреждение, еслиAbove 6.8574% within 12 months.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 72.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 82.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Upside persists if stable margins and shareholder returns let earnings per share grow faster than revenue. The path fades if cash weakens or the share burden rises.
Lower cash after capital spending would constrain shareholder returns and debt reduction.4
The outcome tests whether earnings per share can grow faster than mature revenue.1
| $101.07B |
| $103.60B |
| $106.19B |
| Operating income | $19.53B | $20.41B | $20.92B | $21.44B | $21.98B |
| NOPAT | $14.97B | $15.64B | $16.03B | $16.43B | $16.85B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $14.97B | $15.64B | $16.03B | $16.43B | $16.85B |
| Revenue growth | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 20.7% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Tax rate | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Маржа |
|---|
| TMUS | T-Mobile US Inc. | $194.9B | 12.9x | 2.1x | 9.1x | 18.0% | — |
| T | AT&T Inc. | 10.0x | 1.4x | 7.6x | 18.3% | 24.8% | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 9.5x | 1.5x | 7.9x | 15.8% | 23.0% | |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 14.1x | 1.8x | 10.9x | 8.0% | 19.3% | |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | 7.3x | 0.7x | 5.2x | 11.5% | 17.2% |
| Below $13 billion through FY2028. |
| Reassess dividend, repurchase and debt-reduction capacity.4 |
| FY2027 adjusted EPS | Below $11.50. | Reassess the expected per-share earnings path and pause further additions until it recovers.1 |
