TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $99.8, high $207, with mid-point at $153.
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§1 Краткое резюме
Composite fair value $153 with high case $207.
Implied downside of 46.9% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$153
Margin of safety
-88.4%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$287.80Price
Low $99.78
Mid $152.73
High $206.88
TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
TXN (TXN)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.
EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.
Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.
FAQ
TXN — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, TXN looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $288 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $153 (range $99.8–$207), which implies roughly 46.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TXN is $99.8–$207, with a midpoint of $153. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for TXN's archetype.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. TXN is rated Sell at $287.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $152.73, implying -46.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for TXN are: Fab execution failure; Structural demand destruction; Aggressive analog pricing war. The single biggest risk is Contrarian: While it is a high-quality mature dividend payer, the current price demands an impossible structural growth rate.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($99.8–$207) versus the current price of $288.
TXN is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TXN.
