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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
WELL — frequently asked questions
Is Welltower Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, WELL looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 233 USD versus our fair value of 73,9 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 83,0 USD. That implies roughly 68.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives WELL a fair value of 73,9 USD and a potential value of 83,0 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Welltower Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy WELL now?
Our latest published rating for WELL, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell. Welltower Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 233 USD versus fair value of 73,9 USD; potential value is 83,0 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for WELL?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents Welltower Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is WELL's rating?
Our latest published rating for WELL, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 73,9 USD, the potential value of 83,0 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (233 USD).
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§1 Краткое резюмеEN
Ответ за 30 секундSell
Цена и стоимость
Цена
$232.76
Справедливая стоимость
$73.89
Потенциальная стоимость
$82.97
На дату
2026-09-21
Почему сценарий может сработать
Accelerating occupancy recovery past 90% and compounding RevPOR increases above wage inflation across the $8,489,095,000 Senior Housing Operating portfolio, expanding cash flows towards Potential value of $82.97.
Что изменит нашу оценку
Consolidated operating margin falling below 2.0% across any 12-month period due to wage inflation.
We rate Welltower a Sell. For an ordinary investor, this means avoiding new purchases and selling existing shares because the stock price trades far above what the underlying healthcare properties are worth.
On September 21, 2026, the report was prepared at a price of $232.76. This sits 215.0% above our Fair value of $73.89 and well above our Potential value of $82.97. The market is paying 77.52 times expected earnings, pricing in aggressive growth that leaves no margin of safety.4
The primary risk to the company is caregiver wage inflation across its senior housing communities. If facility operating costs rise faster than resident rent increases, operating profit will fall from FY2025's $355,168,000. Investors would see consolidated drop below 2.0%, leaving less cash to cover $19,720,804,352 in total debt as debt is refinanced at higher interest rates.
The strongest case for the business is accelerating occupancy and rent per room across Senior Housing Operating assets, which generated $8,489,095,000 in FY2025 revenue. As aging demographics boost demand for senior living, higher rental rates could drive consensus revenue to $16,764,843,920 by FY2027, lifting cash flow towards our Potential value of $82.97.1,7
Senior Housing Demographic Tailwinds
Growth in the 80+ population supports sustained occupancy expansion and rental pricing power across the Senior Housing Operating segment, which delivered $8,489,095,000 in FY2025 revenue.7
Defensive Contractual Rental Income
Long-term triple-net leases and outpatient medical facilities contributed $1,197,042,000 and $781,932,000 in FY2025, providing stable cash flows.7
Efficient Scale in Senior Housing
Welltower operates a premier senior housing portfolio generating $8,489,095,000 in FY2025 SHO revenue across supply-constrained markets.7
Рекомендация дома
We rate Welltower a Sell because the report-date price of $232.76 trades 215.0% above our Fair value of $73.89, leaving the stock severely overvalued against property-level cash generation.
Обзор компании
On October 24, 2025, the company acquired all of the shares of HC-One Topco Limited (“HC-One”) via a share purchase agreement. HC-One operates 282 seniors housing properties in the U.K. including owned properties and leasehold interests. Long-Term/Post-Acute Care Facilities Post-acute care is at the leading edge of reducing healthcare costs while improving quality. These high-impact centers help patients recover from illness or surgery with the goals of getting the patient home and healed faster and reducing hospital readmission rates. Its long-term/post-acute care portfolio predominantly consists of skilled nursing/post-acute care facilities where most residents require 24-hour nursing and/or medical care.
Outpatient Medical Buildings Its remaining outpatient medical portfolio, exclusive of held for sale properties, primarily consists of triple-net leased properties leased to investment grade healthcare providers. As of December 31, 2025, 66% of its portfolio included leases with full pass through of expenses to the tenant, 24% with a partial
§2 Медвежий сценарийEN
A simultaneous shock of 100-200 bps margin contraction and rising debt refinancing rates across $19,720,804,352 of total debt would compress AFFO and reduce dividend coverage given pre-tax cost of debt of 16.84%.
Operating margin compression signals that facility wage increases and operational expenses outpace resident rent growth. This breaks positive operating leverage in senior housing and reduces net operating income available for debt servicing and capital returns.
Текущее значение:2.03% in FY2025
§3 Конкурентный ровEN
Narrow
Welltower possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by efficient scale in premier metropolitan senior housing markets and established healthcare partnerships.
While high replacement costs limit new competing facilities, operational exposure to caregiver labor inflation constrains economic moat widening.
Экономическая прибыль
Current ROIC of 0.52% remains below the cost of equity of 8.11% and WACC of 9.01% due to recent major asset deliveries.2
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Efficient Scale in Senior Housing — Welltower operates a premier senior housing portfolio generating $8,489,095,000 in FY2025 SHO revenue across supply-constrained markets.Moderate
02Cost Advantage in Healthcare Real Estate — Scale provides debt access, though FY2025 ROIC of 0.52% trails the cost of equity of 8.11%.Narrow
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($73.89). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Senior housing operating margins gradually normalize towards historical levels
Consolidated top-line revenue reaches consensus expectations for FY2026 and FY2027
Triple-net and outpatient medical leases maintain high retention and contractual rent escalations
The base path projects steady occupancy recovery across senior housing facilities, with annual resident rate increases offsetting labor expenses. Contractual rental income from triple-net and outpatient properties provides cash flow stability, leading to an intrinsic target of $73.89 representing an expected return of -68.3% with probability 60.0%.
Operating cash flow was $2,881,677,000 in FY2025, exceeding net income of $936,845,000 due to $2,084,868,000 in depreciation. Free cash flow of $2,847,878,000 after capex of $33,799,000 supported dividends of $1,877,289,000.4,5,6
Распределение капитала
Welltower actively utilizes capital markets, issuing $2,609,873,000 in net debt in FY2025. Total debt of $19,720,804,352 requires ongoing market access given pre-tax cost of debt of 16.84%.
Последний свободный денежный поток2,8 млрд $FY2025
Чистый долг14,2 млрд $FY2025
Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Выручка8,5 млрд $Себестоимость выручки−4,3 млрд $Валовая прибыль4,2 млрд $Операционные расходы−3,8 млрд $Операционная прибыль355,2 млн $Внереализационные статьи и налоги+581,7 млн $Чистая прибыль936,8 млн $
Данные финансовой истории
Выручка
8 452 996 000 $
Себестоимость выручки
4 273 941 000 $
Валовая прибыль
4 179 055 000 $
Операционные расходы
3 823 887 000 $
Операционная прибыль
355 168 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги
581 677 000 $
Чистая прибыль
936 845 000 $
Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Структура активовИсточники финансирования
Активы, всего67,3 млрд $Денежные средства5 млрд $Оборотные активы9,9 млрд $Обязательства, всего24,1 млрд $Краткосрочные обязательства1,9 млрд $Акционерный капитал42,9 млрд $
Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего
67 303 047 000 $
Денежные средства
5 033 678 000 $
Оборотные активы
9 912 121 000 $
Обязательства, всего
24 100 108 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства
1 855 679 000 $
Акционерный капитал
42 939 716 000 $
Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Сверка операционного денежного потока
Чистая прибыль936,8 млн $Амортизация+2,1 млрд $Компенсация акциями+1,6 млрд $Прочие операционные корректировки−1,7 млрд $Операционный денежный поток2,9 млрд $
Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец
Денежные средства на начало3,7 млрд $Операционный денежный поток+2,9 млрд $Инвестиционный денежный поток−10,5 млрд $Финансовый денежный поток+9 млрд $Влияние обменного курса+129,4 млн $Денежные средства на конец5,2 млрд $
2,9 млрд $ − 33,8 млн $Свободный денежный поток 2,8 млрд $
Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль
936 845 000 $
Операционный приток
4 578 445 000 $
Амортизация
2 084 868 000 $
Компенсация акциями
1 556 732 000 $
Операционный денежный поток
2 881 677 000 $
Операционный отток
1 696 768 000 $
Доступные денежные средства
15 722 288 000 $
Денежные средства на начало
3 711 457 000 $
Финансовый приток
8 999 760 000 $
Влияние обменного курса
129 394 000 $
Инвестиционный отток
10 512 749 000 $
Capex
33 799 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность
10 478 950 000 $
Денежные средства на конец
5 209 539 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток
-10 512 749 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток
8 999 760 000 $
Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.
Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.
РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-21.
Welltower Inc. (WELL) trades at 77.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 83.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 55.1x compares with a peer median of 24.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Healthpeak Properties Inc., Prologis Inc., Equinix Inc. and Ventas Inc., as of 2026-09-21.
§10 Отрасль и циклEN
Фаза цикла
Expansion
Industry capex to depreciation stands at 0.17 with capex to revenue at -12.7%, while Welltower invested $33,799,000 in FY2025 capex.4
Бычий цикл
Demographic expansion of the 80+ population drives steady occupancy gains and pricing power across senior living facilities.
Медвежий цикл
Caregiver labor shortages and elevated financing costs compress facility net operating income despite constrained new construction.
Долгосрочные тренды
Тренд
Влияние
Примечание
Aging Demographics (80+ Population Growth)
positive
Growth in the 80+ population supports multi-year demand for senior housing.
Healthcare Labor Cost Inflation
negative
Persistent staffing shortages elevate operating expenses across assisted living facilities.
Outpatient Healthcare Migration
positive
Health systems expanding outpatient networks support medical office occupancy.
Позиционирование
Welltower holds scale in senior housing with $8,489,095,000 in FY2025 SHO revenue, offering greater pricing leverage than peer Ventas but higher operational labor risk than outpatient peer DOC.3,7
§11 Управление позициейEN
Размер позиции
0%
With a Sell rating and the report-date price of $232.76 trading at a 215.0% premium to Fair value of $73.89, no capital allocation is warranted.4
Риск
Manage portfolio risk by avoiding equity exposure when valuation multiples trade at extreme historical premiums (77.52x forward P/E) against elevated balance sheet debt of $19,720,804,352.
The report-date price of $232.76 trades at an extreme 215.0% premium to Fair value of $73.89, offering no margin of safety.
Income / Dividend Investor
Avoid
Elevated leverage with $19,720,804,352 in debt and low initial yield relative to cost of capital make the dividend vulnerable if operating costs rise.4
Growth / Momentum Investor
Avoid
Post-earnings consensus revisions lowered FY2026 EPS to $2.88 and FY2027 EPS to $3.18, signaling slowing growth momentum.1
§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN
Действие
Продавать
We recommend a Sell rating on Welltower. The report-date price of $232.76 trades 215.0% above our Fair value of $73.89, driven by an unsustainable 77.52x forward P/E multiple.4
Capital preservation requires exiting equity positions, as property-level net operating income and elevated debt obligations cannot justify current market valuation.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Post-event consensus lowered FY2026 diluted EPS to $2.88 and FY2027 diluted EPS to $3.18; failure to meet consensus revenue of $16,764,843,920 in FY2027 reduces cash generation.1
FV impact
0%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Предупреждение, еслиFalls below 2.0% over two consecutive quarters
Предупреждение, еслиDecelerates below 3.0% annualized across two consecutive quarters
03
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
A rising cost of capital increases the hurdle rate for accretive property acquisitions and raises debt refinancing expenses across existing obligations. This compresses property-level equity yields and diminishes economic profit generation.
Текущее значение:9.01% as of September 2026
Предупреждение, еслиRises above 10.5% over the next 12 months
04
International Portfolio Occupancy
Lower international occupancy signals weakened private-pay healthcare demand and operational headwinds across United Kingdom and Canadian facilities. This impairs geographic diversification benefits and reduces foreign currency cash contribution to consolidated operations.
Текущее значение:$1,886,954,000 UK and $668,344,000 Canada revenue in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиFalls below 80.0% over any annual reporting period
05
Outpatient Medical Facility Occupancy
Occupancy declines in outpatient properties indicate health system tenant consolidation or lease non-renewals. This erodes the non-cyclical rental ballast that buffers operational volatility in the senior housing segment and lowers operating cash conversion.
Limitation: Terminal value is 77.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
The bull path envisions accelerating senior housing occupancy exceeding pre-pandemic peaks, coupled with double-digit RevPOR growth that drives operating margins above historical norms. Capital deployment via accretive acquisitions further enhances cash generation, yielding an intrinsic target of $82.97 and an expected return of -64.4% with probability 20.0%.
Same-Store Senior Housing RevPOR Growth
ТекущееRate adjustments show steady progression supported by strong demographic demand for senior living accommodation.
Почему это важно
Revenue per occupied room expansion proves pricing power and tenant absorption capacity across prime metropolitan corridors.
