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ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $114, high $227, with mid-point at $165.
Stock analysis

ZS fair value $114–$227

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-09Следующее обновление: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Цена
$152.13
▲ +12.60 (+8.28%)
Справедливая стоимость
$165
$114–$227
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 76/100
Потенциал роста
+8.3%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$140.02
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$24.5B
P/E fwd 33.2
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $165 with high case $227.
  • Implied upside of 8.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$165
Margin of safety
+7.6%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.13Price
Low $113.67
Mid $164.73
High $226.95

ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating enterprise cloud migrations, perimeterless networks, and remote work permanence drive unabated best-of-breed Zero Trust adoption.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn compressing enterprise IT budgets would severely test the premium valuation. If renewals stall and growth drops, the EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple could collapse, exposing the lack of GAAP earnings support and heavy SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. dilutionDilutionThe increase in share count over time, typically driven by SBC vesting, equity issuance, or M&A in stock. Reduces existing shareholders' per-share claim on cash flows..

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Platform Bundling Accelerates

· Medium

Mega-cap competitors successfully bundle Zero Trust solutions, driving severe pricing compression and halting new customer acquisition.

FV impact
Downside to $113.67
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Expansion Failure

· High

Inability to scale SG&A and curb stock-based compensation permanently impairs GAAP operating margins, capping them below 20%.

FV impact
Downside to $125.00
Trigger
24-36 months

Growth Decelerates Abruptly

· Low

Macroeconomic headwinds and market saturation cause top-line growth to abruptly decelerate below 15% earlier than modeled.

FV impact
Downside to $110.00
Trigger
6-12 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Calculated billings growth decelerating significantly faster than revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dollar-based net retention rate dropping below 115%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue increasing year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sales and marketing efficiency ratios deteriorating.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increasing churn among large enterprise customers to bundled competitors.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Выручка$1.09B$1.62B$2.17B$2.67B+34.8%
Валовая прибыль$848.7M$1.25B$1.69B$2.05B+34.3%
Операционная прибыль$-327.4M$-234.6M$-121.5M$-127.1M—
Чистая прибыль$-390.3M$-202.3M$-57.7M$-41.5M—
EPS (разводнённая)$-2.77$-1.40$-0.39$-0.27—
EBITDA$-277.6M$-109.2M$64.8M$108.1M—
R&D$289.1M$350.8M$499.8M$672.5M+32.5%
SG&A$887.0M$1.14B$1.31B$1.51B+19.4%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
-23.45
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
-0.0%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVENUE FAQ

ZS revenue questions

  1. ZS (ZS)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

ZS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ZS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $165 (range $114–$227), which implies roughly 8.3% upside to the midpoint.

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