American International Group Inc. (AIG)

In the bull scenario, intrinsic value reaches $195.82, reflecting a potential return of 161.3% with an assigned probability of 20.0%. This trajectory requires commercial property and casualty pricing cycles to re-accelerate globally, underwriting margins to expand toward top-tier specialty peers, and elevated fixed-income reinvestment yields to compound investment income while share count reductions accelerate. Disconfirmation would occur if renewal pricing contracts broadly across core commercial lines or catastrophe losses overwhelm underwriting provisions, which would be visible by mid-year FY2027.

• Commercial renewal pricing re-accelerates across North America and International specialty accounts
• Underwriting operating margins expand toward top-tier peer levels supported by technology efficiency
• High fixed-income portfolio reinvestment yields sustain expanding net investment income
• Continued aggressive share repurchases reduce diluted share count beyond baseline expectations