การวิเคราะห์ผลิตภัณฑ์แบบไม่บังคับ
เมื่อคุณอนุญาต เราจะใช้การวิเคราะห์แบบจำกัดที่คำนึงถึงความเป็นส่วนตัวเพื่อดูว่าเส้นทางการวิจัยใดได้ผล เราไม่ใช้ตัวติดตามโฆษณาหรือการบันทึกเซสชัน คุณเปลี่ยนตัวเลือกนี้ได้ในการตั้งค่า อ่าน นโยบายความเป็นส่วนตัว.
Bull: CCEP successfully passes pricing increases without volume degradation.
Elasticity Breakpoint: Consumers reject sustained price hikes, driving permanent volume declines and private label substitution.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is an entrenched, high-quality bottler generating roughly $2 billion in annual free cash flow. While it operates with structurally lower margins than franchisors like KO, its local monopoly on distribution and vast scale provide a wide economic moat. It is a predictable compounder actively returning capital through dividends and buybacks.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is an entrenched, high-quality bottler generating roughly $2 billion in annual free cash flow. While it operates with structurally lower margins than franchisors like KO, its local monopoly on distribution and vast scale provide a wide economic moat. It is a predictable compounder actively returning capital through dividends and buybacks.
Exclusive territorial distribution agreements for top global beverage brands.
Massive local distribution density creating insurmountable scale advantages.
Normalized supply chains and highly stable consumer staples demand driving margin expansion.
Buy. Wide expectations gap compared to structural cash generation capabilities.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells a range of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. It offers flavours, mixers, energy drinks, soft drinks, water, enhanced water, isotonic drinks, tea and coffee, juices, and other drinks. The company provides its products under the Coca-Cola Original Taste, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Diet Coke, Sprite, Sprite Zero Sugar, Fanta, Fanta Zero Sugar, Monster Energy, A&W, Absolut Vodka & SPRITE, Ades, Appletiser, aquaBona, Aquarius, BACARDÍ Mixed with Coca Cola RTD, Barista Bros, Bonaqua, BURN, Deep Spring, Dr Pepper, Dr Pepper Zero Sugar, Feral Brewing Co, Fuze Tea, Giancarlo Coffee, GLACEAU smartwater, Grinders, HALO, Jack Daniel's & Coca-Cola ready-to-drink, Kristal, L&P, MER, Minute Maid, Mother, Mount Franklin, Nordic Mist, Nutriboost, Oasis, Pulpy, pump, pumped, Reign, Rekorderlig Cider, Relentless, Royal, Royal Bliss, Schweppes, Schweppes Mix, SOCO, URGE, Vilas del Turbón, Voyage, Wilkins Pure, and Zephyr Coffee Co brands. It is also involved in the bottling and other operations. The company was formerly known as Coca-Cola European Partners plc and changed its name to Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC in May 2021. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in Uxbridge, United Kingdom.
Consumer elasticity reaches a tipping point amid sticky wage and packaging inflation, compressing operating margins back toward 10% and stunting free cash flow generation.
Consumer elasticity reaches a tipping point. Sticky wage and packaging inflation compresses operating margins, stunting free cash flow generation and halting multiple re-rating.
Consumers reject sustained price hikes, driving permanent volume declines and private label substitution.
Primary franchisor aggressively hikes concentrate pricing, forcing the bottler to absorb the margin compression.
ห้าพัฒนาการที่อาจทำให้กรณีการลงทุนของเราอ่อนแอลง
Margin erosion indicates that packaging inflation and higher distribution costs cannot be offset by pricing actions, impairing operating leverage and lowering overall return on invested capital.
ปัจจุบัน:13.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
แจ้งเตือนหาก< 12.0% for two consecutive quarters
Exclusive territorial distribution agreements for top global beverage brands.
Massive local distribution density creating insurmountable scale advantages.
Inelastic consumer demand profile for defensive anchor brands.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($115.74). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $2.5B after capex $1.1B, with terminal value at 69.0% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
CCEP successfully passes pricing increases without volume degradation. Bolt-on acquisitions and continuous share retirements drive compounding, leading to multiple expansion closer to 20x.
Watch volume resilience against structural price increases. If volumes hold, margins expand toward 15%. If volumes break, margins revert to 10%.
Watch volume resilience against structural price increases. If volumes hold, margins expand toward 15%. If volumes break, margins revert to 10%.
Watch volume resilience against structural price increases. If volumes hold, margins expand toward 15%. If volumes break, margins revert to 10%.
Watch volume resilience against structural price increases. If volumes hold, margins expand toward 15%. If volumes break, margins revert to 10%.
Warning level: < 12.0% for two consecutive quarters. Margin erosion indicates that packaging inflation and higher distribution costs cannot be offset by pricing actions, impairing operating leverage and lowering overall return on invested capital.
Warning level: < 1.20 over any trailing twelve months. A structural decrease in cash flow conversion limits organic capital generation, restricting capacity for dividend distributions, debt service, and essential modernization investments across bottling facilities.
Warning level: < 0.0% over any full fiscal year. Negative revenue trajectory signals consumer pushback against beverage price hikes and acceleration toward private label alternatives, undermining volume-based operational efficiencies across distribution territories.
Warning level: < 33.0% across any full fiscal year. Severe concentrate cost increases imposed by franchisors squeeze unit profitability, proving the bottler lacks pricing power to pass upstream cost inflation to retail partners and consumers.
Warning level: < 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Subdued capital productivity reduces economic value add across European and Pacific bottling assets, jeopardizing management's targeted share repurchase cadence and dividend payout capacity.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| รายได้ | 20,901,000,000 |
|---|---|
| ต้นทุนรายได้ | 13,461,000,000 |
| กำไรขั้นต้น | 7,440,000,000 |
| ค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงาน | 4,648,000,000 |
| กำไรจากการดำเนินงาน | 2,792,000,000 |
| รายการที่ไม่ใช่การดำเนินงานและภาษี | -850,000,000 |
| กำไรสุทธิ | 1,942,000,000 |
| สินทรัพย์รวม | 29,254,000,000 |
|---|---|
| เงินสด | 1,419,000,000 |
| สินทรัพย์หมุนเวียน | 6,605,000,000 |
| หนี้สินรวม | 21,278,000,000 |
| หนี้สินหมุนเวียน | 7,278,000,000 |
| ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น | 7,976,000,000 |
ข้อมูลการเงิน ณ จุดเวลาที่ใช้ในการวิเคราะห์วันที่ 2026-05-20
| ช่วงเวลา | รายได้ | EBITDA | กำไรสุทธิ | กระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงาน | กระแสเงินสดอิสระ | Capex | ค่าเสื่อมราคาและค่าตัดจำหน่าย | ค่าตอบแทนที่จ่ายเป็นหุ้น | การซื้อหุ้นคืน | เงินปันผลที่จ่าย | การออกหนี้สุทธิ | กระแสเงินสดจากการลงทุน | กระแสเงินสดจากการจัดหาเงิน | เงินสดต้นงวด | เงินสดปลายงวด | เงินสดและเงินลงทุน | หนี้สินรวม | อัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงาน | ROIC | WACC | ส่วนต่าง ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | 17.3B | 2.9B | 1.5B | 2.9B | 2.3B | 603M | 816M | 33M | 0 | 763M | -1.2B | — | — | — | — | 1.4B | 11.9B | 12.9% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 18.3B | 3.2B | 1.7B | 2.8B | 2B | 812M | 792M | 57M | 0 | 841M | -465M | — | — | — | — | 1.4B | 11.4B | 12.7% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 20.4B | 3.1B | 1.4B | 3.1B | 2.1B | 939M | 933M | 45M | 0 | 910M | -199M | — | — | — | — | 1.6B | 11.3B | 12.4% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 20.9B | 3.8B | 1.9B | 3B | 2B | 950M | 923M | 47M | 1B | 927M | -497M | — | — | — | — | 918M | 10.7B | 13.4% | — | — | — |
CCEP trades at 16.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.5x; EV/EBITDA of 15.0x against a peer median of 22.9x; 6 peers.
Normal phase. Mature, predictable maintenance capex required to sustain existing local monopolies.
Normalized supply chains and highly stable consumer staples demand driving margin expansion.
Severe commodity and labor inflation combined with weak consumer purchasing power.
Normal phase. Mature, predictable maintenance capex required to sustain existing local monopolies.
Core portfolio holding given highly defensive characteristics and visible cash flow baseline.
Reassess if operating margins structurally breach 12% or capex-to-D&A exceeds 1.2x permanently.
Strong Buy. The asset trades at an excessively pessimistic valuation despite durable local monopolies and highly visible $2B+ annual free cash flow.
The market prices in negative implied growth, creating a compelling expectations gap. CCEP’s 20-year moat-fade trajectory justifies a premium to standard near-term internal valuation anchors.
Buy. The asset trades at an excessively pessimistic valuation despite durable local monopolies and highly visible $2B+ annual free cash flow.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Maintenance capex-to-D&A structurally rises above 1.2x, permanently impairing free cash flow conversion.
A structural decrease in cash flow conversion limits organic capital generation, restricting capacity for dividend distributions, debt service, and essential modernization investments across bottling facilities.
ปัจจุบัน:1.521 as of 2026-05-20
แจ้งเตือนหาก< 1.20 over any trailing twelve months
Negative revenue trajectory signals consumer pushback against beverage price hikes and acceleration toward private label alternatives, undermining volume-based operational efficiencies across distribution territories.
ปัจจุบัน:2.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
แจ้งเตือนหาก< 0.0% over any full fiscal year
Severe concentrate cost increases imposed by franchisors squeeze unit profitability, proving the bottler lacks pricing power to pass upstream cost inflation to retail partners and consumers.
ปัจจุบัน:35.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
แจ้งเตือนหาก< 33.0% across any full fiscal year
Subdued capital productivity reduces economic value add across European and Pacific bottling assets, jeopardizing management's targeted share repurchase cadence and dividend payout capacity.
ปัจจุบัน:12.1% as of 2026-05-20
แจ้งเตือนหาก< 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Valuation is grounded in structural cash generation and a 20-year moat-fade trajectory. Current market pricing incorrectly implies zero-to-negative long-term volume growth, creating an expectations gap.
| อัตรากำไร |
|---|
| CCEP | Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $40.7B | 16.2x | 1.9x | 15.0x | — | — |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | 23.5x | 7.2x | 22.9x | 43.4% | 35.1% | |
| PEP | PepsiCo Inc. | 16.4x | 2.2x | 13.2x | 43.9% | 17.0% | |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corporation | 33.5x | 9.6x | 28.9x | 26.7% | 31.0% | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 11.4x | 2.3x | 17.0x | 6.3% | 19.0% | |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 40.8x | 1.5x | 25.8x | 21.8% | 4.6% |
