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FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $48.0, high $79.5, with mid-point at $64.0.
Stock analysis

FTNT fair value $48–$80

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
วิเคราะห์เมื่อ: 2026-05-09อัปเดตครั้งถัดไป: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Growth infrastructure
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ราคา
$114.07
▼ -50.08 (-43.90%)
มูลค่ายุติธรรม
$64
$48–$80
เรตติ้ง
ขาย
confidence 68/100
อัปไซด์
-43.9%
upside to fair value
ส่วนเผื่อความปลอดภัย
$54.39
MoS level · 15%
มูลค่าตลาด
$83.5B
P/E fwd 33.4
สำรองภาษาอังกฤษTH
แสดงต้นฉบับภาษาอังกฤษระหว่างที่กำลังแปล
รายงานนี้ยังไม่ได้แปล โปรดรีเฟรชอีกครั้งในไม่กี่นาทีเมื่อคิวการแปลทำงานเสร็จ

§1 บทสรุปผู้บริหาร

  • Composite fair value $64 with high case $80.
  • Implied downside of 43.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 68/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$64
Margin of safety
-78.3%
Confidence
68/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$114.07Price
Low $47.99
Mid $63.99
High $79.53

FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior
    Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior performance-to-cost ratios.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated network-security deployments.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is erroneously pricing a software-only future onto a capital-heavy hardware business model.

§2 กรณีลบ

If enterprise firewall refresh cycles extend and SASE adoption favors software-only competitors, Fortinet's product revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. stalls. High fixed R&D and hardware capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). commitments will rapidly reverse operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., driving fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $48 absolute floor.

วิธีที่ธีสิสนี้อาจล้มเหลว

SASE Commoditization

· Medium

Software-defined network security architectures fully commoditize Fortinet's legacy ASIC hardware advantage.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
24-36 Months

Margin Contraction

· Medium

Intensifying price war with Palo Alto Networks forces aggressive discounting to defend market share.

FV impact
Midpoint fair value drops below $50
Trigger
12-24 Months

Refresh Cycle Freeze

· High

Macroeconomic headwinds permanently stretch firewall upgrade timelines, halting core product revenue growth.

FV impact
Immediate EPS downside
Trigger
6-12 Months
สัญญาณเตือนล่วงหน้าที่ต้องเฝ้าระวัง
ตัวชี้วัดปัจจุบันเกณฑ์ทริกเกอร์
Consecutive quarters of product revenue deceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins compressing sustainably below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Billings growth trailing revenue growth by more than 500 bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned spikes in channel inventory levels.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Erosion in the OCF to Net Income ratio below 1.1x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 ประวัติการเงิน

งบกำไรขาดทุน — หกงวดล่าสุด
รายการT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
ช่วงเวลา2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
รายได้$3.34B$4.42B$5.30B$5.96B$6.80B+19.4%
กำไรขั้นต้น$2.56B$3.33B$4.07B$4.80B$5.47B+20.9%
กำไรจากการดำเนินงาน$650.4M$969.6M$1.24B$1.80B$2.08B+33.8%
กำไรสุทธิ$606.8M$857.3M$1.15B$1.75B$1.85B+32.2%
EPS (เจือจาง)$1.06$1.46$2.26$2.42+22.9%
EBITDA$727.7M$1.08B$1.47B$2.20B$2.45B+35.5%
R&D$424.2M$512.4M$613.8M$716.8M$815.5M+17.8%
SG&A$1.49B$1.86B$2.22B$2.28B$2.58B+14.7%

คะแนนคุณภาพ

OCF / กำไรสุทธิ
1.4×
>1 บ่งบอกคุณภาพกำไรสูง
เกณฑ์คุณภาพบัญชี
Fail
เกณฑ์ปรับตามภาคอุตสาหกรรม
ROIC
81.4%
ผลตอบแทนต่อทุนที่ลงทุน
ส่วนที่ 3

Numbers analysis

กระแสเงินสด

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

การจัดสรรทุน

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

สมาชิกรายบุคคล — §4 เป็นต้นไปอีก 11 ส่วน

อ่านวิเคราะห์เต็มฉบับ — อีก 11 ส่วน

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

FTNT margins questions

  1. FTNT (FTNT)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

FTNT — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, FTNT looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $114 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $64.0 (range $48.0–$79.5), which implies roughly 43.9% downside to the midpoint.
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