IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $239, high $326, with mid-point at $283.
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$283
Margin of safety
+18.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$229.76Price
Low $239.16
Mid $282.5
High $326.13
IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs for legacy
High switching costs for legacy enterprise infrastructure
Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via
Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via Red Hat
Free cash flow for IBM (IBM) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
IBM — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, IBM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $230 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $283 (range $239–$326), which implies roughly 22.9% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for IBM is $239–$326, with a midpoint of $283. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for IBM's archetype.
Our current rating for IBM is Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. IBM is rated Buy at $229.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $282.50, implying +22.95% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for IBM are: Hyperscaler Compression; Consulting Collapse; Gen AI Disruption. The single biggest risk is Hyperscaler Compression: Cloud providers aggressively price hybrid solutions, eroding IBM's software operating margin expansion.
Our current rating for IBM is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($239–$326) versus the current price of $230.
IBM is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for IBM.
