การวิเคราะห์ผลิตภัณฑ์แบบไม่บังคับ
เมื่อคุณอนุญาต เราจะใช้การวิเคราะห์แบบจำกัดที่คำนึงถึงความเป็นส่วนตัวเพื่อดูว่าเส้นทางการวิจัยใดได้ผล เราไม่ใช้ตัวติดตามโฆษณาหรือการบันทึกเซสชัน คุณเปลี่ยนตัวเลือกนี้ได้ในการตั้งค่า อ่าน นโยบายความเป็นส่วนตัว.
The most substantial upside catalyst is the accelerated deployment of domain-specific agentic AI and stair-step consumption monetization across Roper's 21 vertical software franchises.
Consolidated organic revenue growth decelerating below 2.0% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
We rate Roper Technologies Inc. a Buy with a Fair value of $410.13 per share, offering 15.75% upside from the October 2, 2026 closing price of $354.32.
We assign a Buy rating to Roper Technologies Inc.. For an ordinary investor, this rating signifies that Roper's equity provides an attractive risk-adjusted total return profile supported by durable vertical software cash generation, high customer switching costs, and non-discretionary compliance demand, justifying an active investment position at current market prices.
As of the October 2, 2026 analysis date, Roper shares closed at $354.32. This market price reflects a 13.61% discount to our central Fair value of $410.13 per share, representing 15.75% upside, and sits well beneath our Potential value ceiling of $491.66 per share.4
The primary risk that could challenge our thesis is an enterprise IT budget contraction or delayed software renewal cycle that reduces organic below 2.0% YoY. Because Application Software contributes 56.7% of total ($4,483.0M in FY2025), prolonged customer procurement freezes or module cancellations would impede conversion, reduce from FY2025 levels of 28.29%, and constrain debt service on Roper's $11,319.4M debt balance.
The fundamental driver supporting equity upside is Roper's deeply embedded system-of-record moats across specialized vertical software platforms, which yield high customer retention and reliable pricing power. Operating an asset-light model where capital expenditures were just $47.4M (0.60% of revenue) against $2,540.3M of operating cash flow in FY2025, Roper converts over 100% of GAAP net income ($1,536.3M) into free cash flow to comfortably service borrowings and self-fund value-accretive vertical acquisitions.456
Application Software generates 56.7% of consolidated revenues ($4,483.0M in FY2025) and operates as the core administrative and regulatory backbone for specialized enterprise customers, creating exceptionally high switching costs and multi-year renewal durability.57
Requiring only $47.4M in capital expenditures (0.60% of revenue) in FY2025, Roper converted $1,536.3M of GAAP net income into $2,540.3M of operating cash flow, generating approximately $2.49B in free cash flow to de-risk its balance sheet and fund accretive acquisitions.46
Roper monetizes customer workflows through stair-step consumption tiers and agentic AI features in platforms such as Deltek, DAT, and SoftWriters, driving consensus EPS progression toward $24.38 by FY2027.15
Buy: Roper's asset-light compounder model delivers durable 15.75% upside to Fair value ($410.13) anchored by mission-critical vertical software systems with high switching costs and superior free cash flow conversion.
Roper Technologies Inc. is a diversified technology company operating specialized vertical software franchises and technology-enabled product businesses designed to serve defensible niche markets. The company designs and deploys mission-critical solutions featuring high customer switching costs, embedded regulatory workflows, and proprietary domain data across 21 specialized vertical sectors.
The company reports its operating results through three specialized segments: Application Software, Technology Enabled Products, and Network Software and Systems. In FY2025, Application Software generated $4,483.0M or 56.7% of consolidated revenues, providing vertical systems of record, enterprise resource management, and regulatory compliance platforms for healthcare, government contracting, legal, and insurance end markets. Technology Enabled Products contributed $1,818.7M (23.0% of revenues), providing automated municipal water meters, medical devices, and specialized measurement instruments. Network Software and Systems contributed $1,600.8M (20.3% of revenues), delivering cloud-based supply chain networks, electronic freight marketplaces, and financial distribution exchanges.
Roper's customer base is predominantly domestic, with the United States generating $6,872.8M or 87.0% of consolidated FY2025 revenues. International operations are distributed across Canada ($291.7M), Europe ($541.4M), Asia ($71.1M), and the rest of the world ($125.5M), reflecting targeted expansion in developed governance markets.
Under a severe stress test combining enterprise software budget freezes, sustained elevated interest rates, and commodity input inflation, Roper's compounding flywheel faces compounding headwinds. With total debt of $11,319.4M and $2,255.9M in maturities due over the next 24 months ($705.8M in year 1 and $1,550.1M in year 2), refinancing at current elevated benchmark yields (risk-free rate 5.24%, pre-tax debt cost 5.89%) would increase annual interest expense beyond the FY2025 baseline of $325.0M. Simultaneously, if Technology Enabled Products ($1,818.7M FY2025 revenue) continues to experience margin pressure from copper and mechanical meter costs at Neptune while enterprise clients delay software expansions across Application Software ($4,483.0M FY2025 revenue), consolidated operating margins would contract toward 25.0%. In this environment, annual operating cash flow of $2,540.3M would be absorbed by debt service and working capital requirements, limiting capital available for accretive programmatic acquisitions and impairing intrinsic valuation.
Application Software generated $4,483.0M or 56.7% of FY2025 revenue. Management guided organic growth in the 6% range. If enterprise IT scrutiny or client budget freezes cause organic growth to drop below 2.0% YoY over a 12-month horizon, top-line compounding breaks down, triggering an estimated 28.5% fair value decline.57
ห้าพัฒนาการที่อาจทำให้กรณีการลงทุนของเราอ่อนแอลง
A deceleration in organic revenue growth below 2.0% YoY would indicate enterprise IT budget freezes and renewal friction, directly invalidating the vertical lock-in thesis across Application Software.
ปัจจุบัน:6.0% FY2026 organic growth guidance midpoint
แจ้งเตือนหากBelow 2.0% YoY organic revenue growth
Roper Technologies commands a defensible narrow moat rooted in high customer switching costs and proprietary intangible domain assets across 21 specialized vertical software platforms. Its largest business line, Application Software, generated $4,483.0M in FY2025, representing 56.7% of consolidated revenues ($7,902.5M). Platforms such as Deltek, Vertafore, and PowerPlan act as compliance and operational systems of record within regulated end-markets. Migrating away from these deeply integrated platforms imposes severe operational risk, substantial data conversion friction, and extensive employee retraining, ensuring annual gross renewal rates in the mid-to-high 90% range.
Beyond standalone switching costs, Roper benefits from proprietary domain data and entrenched distribution networks that compound value over time. By embedding vertical automation directly into customer workflows with low latency, platforms like DAT and SoftWriters capture network and learning effects that improve predictive utility and support stair-step consumption pricing. This domain specialization protects gross profit margins of 69.24% ($5,472.0M in FY2025) from horizontal software encroachment, as enterprise vendors such as Workday (11.82% operating margin) and ADP (23.46% operating margin) focus on broad horizontal enterprise suites rather than fragmented vertical micro-markets.
The durability of Roper's economic moat is demonstrated by its asset-light financial profile, which generated $2,540.3M in operating cash flow on net income of $1,536.3M in FY2025 while requiring only $47.4M in capital expenditures (0.60% of revenue). While accounting return on total invested capital is 6.37% due to $21,341.2M in accumulated balance-sheet goodwill, the cash return on tangible operating capital vastly exceeds its computed WACC of 7.9611%, supporting a durable multi-stage competitive advantage period.
Roper's accounting ROIC on total invested capital is 6.37%, dampened by $21,341.2M of accumulated goodwill from past acquisitions. However, on tangible operating capital, Roper generates exceptional economic returns well above its computed WACC of 7.9611%. In FY2025, operating profit of $2,235.4M was generated on physical capex of just $47.4M, reflecting superior underlying asset economics.246
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($410.13). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.8B after modeled reinvestment of $153.8M, with terminal value at 79.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the Base case, Roper compounds through steady execution across its vertical software franchises, where system-of-record positions sustain mid-single-digit organic growth and high customer renewal rates. Consolidated operating margins expand gradually through fixed overhead leverage, while asset-light cash conversion generates substantial free cash flow to service debt and fund disciplined vertical acquisitions. This modal path supports our Fair value of $410.13.
An earnings beat driven by organic software expansion confirms workflow lock-in and pricing power across regulated niches, increasing intrinsic compounding velocity toward $491.66.
Results matching consensus confirm that steady-state compounding remains on track, supporting progression toward $410.13 without requiring multiple expansion.
A material miss in organic growth or margins would challenge the vertical software moat durability and warrant lowering the valuation anchor.
Earnings quality is exceptionally high, characterized by strong cash flow conversion where operating cash flow substantially exceeds reported GAAP net income. Working capital requirements remain low and capital expenditure intensity represents a minimal fraction of revenue, reflecting the asset-light nature of Roper's vertical software and technology platforms. Operating profits translate directly into unencumbered cash flows with minimal accrual distortion.
Application software represents the primary system-of-record engine. A slowdown in organic expansion indicates customer IT procurement friction or competitive churn, reducing cash flow compounding.
In FY2025, Roper demonstrated elite cash conversion dynamics, generating $2,540.3M in cash flow from operations on GAAP net income of $1,536.3M, representing a conversion ratio of 165.35%. With capital expenditures of only $47.4M (0.60% of revenue), free cash flow reached $2,492.9M, representing 31.55% of revenue. For the first half of 2026, capex remained negligible at $25.3M, underscoring the structural asset-light nature of its vertical software business model.46
Roper's capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-hurdle vertical software acquisitions and debt service over large share repurchases or dividend payouts. generation of nearly $2.5B annually provides substantial capacity to service $11,319.4M in total debt ($705.8M due in 1 year and $1,550.1M in year 2) while maintaining cash balances ($297.4M at year-end FY2025). As highlighted by CEO Neil Hunn, management continuously evaluates share repurchases against acquisitions on a risk-adjusted per share compounding basis, deploying capital into proprietary system-of-record franchises while avoiding dilutive equity financing.
Roper's accounting ROIC on total invested capital is 6.37%, reflecting the substantial goodwill asset balance ($21,341.2M or 61.7% of total assets of $34,577.0M) generated through acquisitions. However, return on tangible capital employed is exceptionally high, as core operations require virtually no physical reinvestment ($47.4M capex in FY2025) to generate $2,235.4M in operating profit.
While accounting ROIC of 6.37% appears below the computed WACC of 7.9611% due to accumulated historical goodwill, Roper's cash flow return on tangible operating assets exceeds WACC by over 1,500 basis points, confirming robust economic value creation.
| รายได้ | US$7,902,500,000 |
|---|---|
| ต้นทุนรายได้ | US$2,430,500,000 |
| กำไรขั้นต้น | US$5,472,000,000 |
| ค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงาน | US$3,236,600,000 |
| กำไรจากการดำเนินงาน | US$2,235,400,000 |
| รายการที่ไม่ใช่การดำเนินงานและภาษี | -US$699,100,000 |
| กำไรสุทธิ | US$1,536,300,000 |
| สินทรัพย์รวม | US$34,577,000,000 |
|---|---|
| เงินสด | US$297,400,000 |
| สินทรัพย์หมุนเวียน | US$1,928,100,000 |
| หนี้สินรวม | US$14,695,500,000 |
| หนี้สินหมุนเวียน | US$3,725,600,000 |
| ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น | US$19,881,500,000 |
| กำไรสุทธิ | US$1,536,300,000 |
|---|---|
| กระแสเงินสดรับจากการดำเนินงาน | US$2,600,800,000 |
| ค่าเสื่อมราคาและค่าตัดจำหน่าย | US$898,200,000 |
| ค่าตอบแทนที่จ่ายเป็นหุ้น | US$166,300,000 |
| กระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงาน | US$2,540,300,000 |
| กระแสเงินสดจ่ายจากการดำเนินงาน | US$60,500,000 |
| เงินสดที่มีอยู่ | US$3,685,400,000 |
| เงินสดต้นงวด | US$188,200,000 |
| เงินสดรับจากการจัดหาเงิน | US$923,600,000 |
| ผลกระทบจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน | US$33,300,000 |
| เงินสดจ่ายจากการลงทุน | US$3,388,000,000 |
| Capex | US$47,400,000 |
| กิจกรรมลงทุนอื่น | US$3,340,600,000 |
| เงินสดปลายงวด | US$297,400,000 |
| กระแสเงินสดจากการลงทุน | -US$3,388,000,000 |
| กระแสเงินสดจากการจัดหาเงิน | US$923,600,000 |
แหล่งข้อมูล: SEC EDGAR · ยื่นเมื่อ 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| รายได้ตามส่วนงานดำเนินงาน | รายได้ | สัดส่วน | เทียบปีก่อน |
|---|---|---|---|
| Application Software | US$4.5B | 56.7% | 15.9% |
| Technology Enabled Products | US$1.8B | 23% | 7.3% |
| Network Software And Systems | US$1.6B | 20.3% | 8.5% |
แหล่งข้อมูล: SEC EDGAR · ยื่นเมื่อ 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| รายได้ตามภูมิภาค | รายได้ | สัดส่วน | เทียบปีก่อน |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$6.9B | 87% | 13.4% |
| Europe | US$541.4M | 6.9% | 9.4% |
| Canada | US$291.7M | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Rest Of World | US$125.5M | 1.6% | 6% |
| Asia | US$71.1M | 0.9% | -4% |
ข้อมูลการเงิน ณ จุดเวลาที่ใช้ในการวิเคราะห์วันที่ 2026-10-03
| ช่วงเวลา | รายได้ | EBITDA | กำไรสุทธิ | กระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงาน | กระแสเงินสดอิสระ | Capex | ค่าเสื่อมราคาและค่าตัดจำหน่าย | ค่าตอบแทนที่จ่ายเป็นหุ้น | การซื้อหุ้นคืน | เงินปันผลที่จ่าย | การออกหนี้สุทธิ | กระแสเงินสดจากการลงทุน | กระแสเงินสดจากการจัดหาเงิน | เงินสดต้นงวด | เงินสดปลายงวด | เงินสดและเงินลงทุน | หนี้สินรวม | อัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงาน | ROIC | WACC | ส่วนต่าง ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$3.8B | US$1.3B | US$658.6M | US$963.8M | US$926.5M | US$37.3M | US$240.5M | US$78.8M | — | US$121.1M | — | -US$3.8B | US$2.8B | — | US$757.2M | US$757.2M | US$6.2B | 27.8% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$4.6B | US$1.6B | US$971.8M | US$1.2B | US$1.2B | US$48.8M | US$345M | US$83.1M | — | US$142.8M | — | -US$209.6M | -US$1.2B | US$757.2M | US$671.3M | US$671.3M | US$5.2B | 26.3% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$5.2B | US$1.7B | US$944.4M | US$1.4B | US$1.4B | US$49.1M | US$367M | US$133.8M | — | US$170.1M | — | -US$1.3B | -US$388.1M | US$671.3M | US$364.4M | US$364.4M | US$4.9B | 26.9% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$4.7B | US$2.8B | US$1.8B | US$1.5B | US$1.4B | US$62.9M | US$408.8M | US$101.2M | — | US$191.7M | — | -US$1.3B | US$177M | US$364.4M | US$709.7M | US$709.7M | US$5.3B | 28.1% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$4B | US$1.8B | US$949.7M | US$1.5B | US$1.5B | US$48.9M | US$491.6M | US$108.3M | — | US$214.1M | — | -US$6.1B | US$4.1B | US$709.7M | US$308.3M | US$308.3M | US$9.6B | 26.9% | — | 4.7% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$4.8B | US$1.9B | US$1.2B | US$2B | US$1.9B | US$62.6M | US$615.9M | US$123M | — | US$236.4M | — | -US$142.9M | -US$1.8B | US$308.3M | US$351.5M | US$351.5M | US$7.9B | 25.7% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$5.4B | US$2.1B | US$4.5B | US$734.6M | US$664.3M | US$70.3M | US$650.1M | US$118.5M | — | US$262.3M | -US$1.3B | US$1.2B | -US$1.5B | US$351.5M | US$792.8M | US$792.8M | US$6.7B | 28.4% | — | 7.9% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$6.2B | US$1.7B | US$1.4B | US$2B | US$1.9B | US$108M | US$755.2M | US$123.5M | US$0 | US$290.2M | -US$340M | -US$2.1B | -US$499.5M | US$792.8M | US$214.3M | US$214.3M | US$6.3B | 28.2% | — | 7.9% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$7B | US$3B | US$1.5B | US$2.4B | US$2.3B | US$66M | US$812.8M | US$145.9M | US$0 | US$321.9M | US$1.3B | -US$3.5B | US$1.1B | US$214.3M | US$188.2M | US$188.2M | US$7.6B | 28.4% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$7.9B | US$3.1B | US$1.5B | US$2.5B | US$2.5B | US$47.4M | US$898.2M | US$166.3M | US$500M | US$355M | US$1.7B | -US$3.4B | US$923.6M | US$188.2M | US$297.4M | US$297.4M | US$9.3B | 28.3% | — | 7.5% | — |
Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP) trades at 15.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.2x compares with a peer median of 17.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Paychex Inc., Autodesk Inc., Workday Inc. and Automatic Data Processing Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
The broader software and technology industry benchmark displays an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.45 and an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 17.8%, demonstrating aggressive industry-wide capital deployment into cloud data centers and AI computing capacity. By contrast, Roper operates with extreme capital discipline, spending only $47.4M in capex in FY2025, or 0.60% of revenue,.46
In an industry upcycle, enterprise digital transformation and AI workflow adoption accelerate, driving high organic software subscription upgrades, rapid expansion in stair-step consumption tiers, and strong pricing power across vertical niches.
In an industry downcycle or IT spending pause, corporate customers delay software module rollouts, scrutinize renewal pricing, and experience procurement delays, while supply chain and raw material cost inflation pressure industrial technology components.
Roper occupies a counter-cyclical, defensive niche position by focusing on mission-critical system-of-record applications in regulated and compliance-driven end markets. Its high gross margin (69.24% in FY2025) and asset-light model isolate it from heavy capex cycles, although its debt obligations ($11,319.4M) require ongoing cash flow discipline during elevated interest rate environments.456
Roper represents a high-quality compounder with defensive vertical software moats, strong operating margins (28.29% in FY2025), and exceptional cash flow conversion ($2,540.3M operating cash flow). At the analysis price of $354.32, the stock offers 15.75% upside to Fair value of $410.13, warranting a core 4-6% portfolio allocation balanced against debt refinancing considerations.46
Position risk is controlled through disciplined entry sizing, strict allocation ceilings (maximum 5-6% portfolio weight), and trailing stops as the stock reaches Fair value ($410.13). Balance sheet leverage ($11,319.4M total debt) is monitored quarterly against annual operating cash flow generation ($2,540.3M), ensuring the company maintains ample liquidity to service upcoming maturities ($705.8M in year 1 and $1,550.1M in year 2) without diluting shareholders.
Roper offers a high-quality compounding engine combining durable 6% organic revenue growth, high recurring ARR across 21 vertical niches, and superior operating margins of 28.29%, justifying equity accumulation at a 13.61% discount to Fair value.56
Trading at a forward P/E of 14.97x against an asset-light free cash flow conversion of over 160% of net income ($2,540.3M operating cash flow on $47.4M capex), Roper trades at an unwarranted discount to vertical software peers given its unencumbered cash generation.46
While total debt of $11,319.4M warrants prudent monitoring, non-discretionary system-of-record utility across regulated end markets provides exceptional cash flow resilience, ensuring comfortable debt coverage and dividend sustainability.45
We recommend an investment rating of Buy for Roper Technologies Inc.. At the October 2, 2026 price of $354.32, Roper trades at an attractive 13.61% discount to our central Fair value of $410.13, offering 15.75% upside backed by mission-critical vertical software systems of record and exceptional operating cash flow conversion of $2,540.3M on $47.4M capex.467
While Roper carries $11,319.4M in total debt, its asset-light business model generates nearly $2.5B in annual free cash flow, providing ample liquidity to service scheduled debt maturities ($705.8M within one year) while compounding earnings per share toward consensus targets of $22.22 in FY2026 and $24.38 in FY2027.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the Bear case, macroeconomic spending scrutiny and client procurement freezes decelerate organic software growth, while persistent raw material inflation pressures component margins in industrial technology lines. Higher refinancing yields on maturing debt increase annual interest expense, reducing free cash flow available for reinvestment and compressing equity valuation multiples toward peer baselines.
Roper trades at a forward P/E of 14.97x against peer Workday at 14.07x. Roper carries $11,319.4M in total debt at a pre-tax debt cost of 5.89%. Refinancing debt maturing over 2026 and 2027 at higher benchmark yields (risk-free rate 5.24%) alongside software sector multiple compression to 12.0x would reduce equity valuation by 22.0% over an 18-month timeline.234
FY2025 operating margin was 28.29% ($2,235.4M operating income on $7,902.5M revenue,). In Q2 2026, core EBITDA margins contracted 70 bps driven by Neptune copper input costs and Network segment contract dilution. If persistent supply inflation drops operating margin below 25.0% over the next 12 months, cash flow conversion collapses, causing an estimated 19.5% fair value decline.56
Operating margin contraction below 25.0% would confirm that raw material cost inflation at Neptune and contract dilution in Network Software cannot be offset by software price escalators, impairing cash flow conversion,.
ปัจจุบัน:28.29% in FY2025 ($2,235.4M operating income on $7,902.5M revenue,)
แจ้งเตือนหากAt or below 25.0% of revenue
An increase in annual net interest expense exceeding $350.0M upon refinancing near-term maturities ($705.8M within 1 year, $1,550.1M in year 2) at prevailing benchmark yields (risk-free rate 5.24%) would divert cash flow from accretive acquisitions to debt service.
ปัจจุบัน:$325.0M in FY2025 on $11,319.4M total debt
แจ้งเตือนหากAbove $350.0M annualized
Capital expenditure intensity rising above 2.50% would indicate escalating software re-architecture demands or mandatory cloud infrastructure investments, directly compressing free cash flow conversion.
ปัจจุบัน:0.60% of revenue ($47.4M on $7,902.5M revenue in FY2025,)
แจ้งเตือนหากAbove 2.50% of revenue
A multiple derating to 12.0x forward earnings driven by debt refinancing concerns or software peer multiple compression would compress equity valuation toward bear case levels.
ปัจจุบัน:14.97x forward P/E
แจ้งเตือนหากAt or below 12.0x forward P/E
| Customer IT budget constraints delaying enterprise software contract expansions | medium | 12-24 months | Over 80% of software revenues are anchored to non-discretionary compliance, payroll, legal, and operational systems of record that customers cannot defer or eliminate without severe business disruption.5 |
| Horizontal enterprise software vendors encroaching on adjacent vertical workflows | low | 24-36 months | Horizontal vendors lack the deep, bespoke regulatory integrations and domain expertise required for Roper's niche markets, making ground-up vertical development economically dilutive for large-scale peers. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$86.21 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$358 from the long-term value, totaling US$444.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (US$72.63) plus discounted terminal value (US$276) minus signed per current share (US$91.04) equals the US$257 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the Bull case, accelerated adoption of embedded workflow automation and proprietary domain intelligence drives high organic software expansion across Application Software. Stair-step consumption pricing and enhanced module cross-selling lift consolidated operating margins, while free cash flow generation accelerates debt repayment and funds accretive vertical acquisitions without equity dilution. This path supports Potential value of $491.66.
Durability of operating margins demonstrates pricing power against input cost inflation in industrial technology units. Margin erosion compresses free cash flow conversion.
Asset-light operations require minimal capital expenditure, allowing operating profit to convert directly to unencumbered cash. A rise in capital intensity limits acquisition capacity.
Higher debt yields on maturing notes increase annual interest expense, reducing net income and cash flow per share available for equity compounding.
Upward revisions confirm market confidence in software pricing power and execution, supporting equity valuation.
| $9.64B |
| $10.17B |
| $10.67B |
| Revenue growth | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 28.5% | 28.7% | 28.8% | 28.9% | 29.0% |
| Operating income | $2.44B | $2.61B | $2.78B | $2.94B | $3.10B |
| Tax rate | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| NOPAT | $1.92B | $2.06B | $2.19B | $2.32B | $2.44B |
| Reinvestment | $153.79M | $164.64M | $175.13M | $185.40M | $195.35M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.77B | $1.89B | $2.01B | $2.13B | $2.25B |
| Application Software revenue | $4.85B | $5.16B | $5.47B | $5.77B | $6.06B |
| Technology Enabled Products revenue | $1.97B | $2.09B | $2.22B | $2.34B | $2.46B |
| Network Software and Systems revenue | $1.73B | $1.84B | $1.95B | $2.06B | $2.16B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Application Software generated $4,483.0M or 56.7% of FY2025 revenue, powering consolidated operating income of $2,235.4M and gross profit of $5,472.0M.
High-margin, recurring software revenues insulate the overall business from industrial cyclicity and expand consolidated margins as software outgrows non-software lines.
Capital expenditures were just $47.4M in FY2025 (0.60% of revenue),, and $25.3M in the first half of 2026.
Minimal maintenance capex ensures that nearly all operating cash flow ($2,540.3M in FY2025) converts directly to owner earnings available for debt reduction and acquisitions.
Total debt stands at $11,319.4M with pre-tax debt cost of 5.89%, including $705.8M due in year 1 and $1,550.1M in year 2.
Refinancing at prevailing benchmark yields (risk-free rate 5.24%) will raise annual interest expense slightly, but annual free cash flow exceeding $2.4B provides full liquidity to retire or roll over maturities.
| อัตรากำไร |
|---|
| ROP | Roper Technologies Inc. | $35.0B | 15.0x | 4.2x | 14.2x | 13.1% | — |
| PAYX | Paychex Inc. | $35.2B | 15.5x | 5.3x | 12.6x | 47.1% | 38.5% |
| ADSK | Autodesk Inc. | $44.3B | 14.9x | 5.7x | 19.2x | 53.9% | 29.2% |
| WDAY | Workday Inc. | $44.9B | 14.1x | 4.4x | 28.5x | 16.0% | 11.8% |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing Inc. | $102.1B | 19.2x | 4.7x | 16.2x | 72.2% | 23.5% |
| Higher Interest Rate and Corporate Debt Refinancing Environment | negative | Sustained high benchmark rates (risk-free rate 5.24%) elevate refinancing costs on corporate debt, reducing levered free cash flow and raising the hurdle rate for debt-financed acquisitions. |
| Add second tranche (remaining 50% to reach full allocation) |
| Further market-wide or sector volatility that expands the discount beyond 15% offers exceptional risk-adjusted compounding return. |
| Downgrade stance, evaluate supply-chain pass-through efficacy at Neptune, and model reduced free cash flow generation. |
| Capital Expenditure to Revenue | Capex-to-revenue exceeding 2.5% | Investigate unexpected capital intensity in cloud architecture or infrastructure, adjusting owner earnings projections downward. |
| Annual Net Interest Expense | Interest expense exceeding $350.0M annualized upon debt refinancing | Assess leverage trajectory and evaluate whether debt service restricts capacity for programmatic M&A. |
| Forward P/E Multiple Derating | Multiple compression at or below 12.0x | Re-examine cost of capital assumptions, evaluate broader sector derating vs. company-specific risk, and update target multiples. |
