Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

In the baseline scenario, Weyerhaeuser executes a gradual, multi-year recovery as residential construction stabilizes and industry mill curtailments tighten commodity wood supply. Operating margins normalize from 10.59% in FY2025 to 10.8% in FY2026 and 14.5% by FY2029-FY2030, supported by 53 internal cost reduction initiatives. Reinvestment rates decline from 45% in FY2026 post-Monticello toward 25% by FY2030. This baseline expected path yields our intrinsic Fair value of $11.44.

• Revenue expands from $6,905M in FY2025 to consensus targets of $7,208M in FY2026 and $7,760M in FY2027.
• Consolidated EBIT margin recovers toward historical mid-cycle levels in FY2027 and reaches steady-state profitability by FY2029-FY2030.
• Weighted average cost of capital is 8.03% and cost of equity is 8.79%.
• Terminal growth of 2.5% and terminal P/E multiple of 18.5x.