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BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-09Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
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Fiyat
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$126
$126–$179
Tavsiye
Tut
confidence 78/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4
İngilizce yedekTR
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§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Dönem2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Gelir$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Brüt kâr
Faaliyet kârı
Net kâr$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
EPS (sulandırılmış)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA
R&D
SG&A$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Kalite puanları

OCF / Net kâr
1.54×
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Fail
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
24 ay tavsiye arşivi
İzleme listesi brifingleri + tavsiye değişiklik uyarıları
Herhangi bir dilde PDF + DOCX dışa aktarma
Ücretsiz denemeyi başlat
İstediğin zaman iptal edebilirsin.
FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.
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