Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

NYSE: COF · USD

$205

+1.55 (+0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: COF rated Hold

Capital One Financial Corporation's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$201 / share

Potential value

$284 / share

Upside to FV

+0.3%

from $205

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$122.8B
Revenue (ttm)	48.9B
Net income (ttm)	10.5B
EPS (ttm)	$16.9
Shares out	601.5M
P/E (trailing)	12.1x
P/E (forward)	8.5x
Dividend	$3.20 (1.56%)
Volume	2,057,371
Beta	1.04

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 48.9B
Net income (ttm): 10.5B
EPS (ttm): $16.9
P/E (trailing): 12.1x
P/E (forward): 8.5x
Market cap: $122.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$4.78B	$5.42B	$5.65B	$5.92B	$8.06B	+14.0%
Gross profit	$32.38B	$28.40B	$26.36B	$27.40B	$32.78B	+0.3%
Operating income	$15.81B	$9.24B	$6.05B	$5.91B	$2.28B	-38.4%
Net income	$12.39B	$7.36B	$4.89B	$4.75B	$2.45B	-33.3%
EPS (diluted)	$26.94	$17.91	$11.95	$11.59	$4.03	-37.8%
EBITDA	$19.29B	$12.45B	$9.27B	$9.15B	$7.54B	-20.9%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$7.42B	$8.43B	$9.30B	$9.40B	$12.47B	+13.9%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	Güçlü Al
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	Güçlü Al
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	Tut
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	Al
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	Güçlü Al
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	Al

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$200.80

+0.3% from spot

The base scenario represents the modal outcome with probability 55.0%, establishing target value of $200.80 and return of 0.3%, which reconciles directly to Fair value of $200.80 with an upside of 0.3% relative to $200.20. In this scenario, core domestic credit card loans deliver steady single-digit growth while deliberate portfolio trimming runs its course. Operating margins sustain normalized levels and credit provisions track historical norms. Disconfirmation would arise if loan growth remains stalled past the Discover integration window or if deposit funding costs rise faster than asset yields.

Core domestic revolving credit delivers steady growth offsetting portfolio dial-backs
Operating margin stabilizes near normalized banking efficiency levels
Credit provisions reflect normalized post-pandemic delinquency rates
Moderate cost of equity and terminal valuation multiple remain stable

Bull20%

Price target

$284.02

+41.9% from spot

Under the bull scenario, with probability 20.0%, target value reaches $284.02, offering a return of 41.9% and aligning with Potential value of $284.02. This path requires accelerating domestic card originations, swift realization of network and corporate payment synergies, and operating leverage from cloud infrastructure that drives rapid earnings expansion through FY2027. Disconfirmation would occur if net interest margin compresses or if credit policy adjustments fail to reinvigorate loan balance growth by early next fiscal year.

Accelerating domestic card originations and enterprise corporate card adoption expand revolving loan assets
Net interest margin remains elevated with deposit pricing power defending spreads
Credit loss provisioning subsides rapidly as charge-off inventories normalize
Valuation multiple expands toward mature peer network levels

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($200.80). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.3%	$210	$210	$210	$211	$212
8.8%	$205	$205	$206	$206	$206
9.3%	$200	$200	$201	$201	$202
9.8%	$196	$196	$196	$197	$197
10.3%	$192	$192	$192	$192	$193

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E8.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E11.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE9.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All COF indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

250

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 250 of 250 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000927628
Company name	Capital One Financial Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	14040H105
Earnings date	2026-10-20
Earnings time	amc
Employees	76,300
Employees change	23,700
Employees growth	45.06%
Enterprise value	$124.2B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1988
In index	SP500
Industry	Credit Services
IPO date	1994-11-15
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US14040H1059
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-19
Last earnings date	2026-10-20
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1999-06-02
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$123.3B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-21
Options	Yes
Price	$204.99
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6021
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	COF
U.S. state	Virginia
Website	https://www.capitalone.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	9.86x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	16.49x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	30.43x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	20.03x
Earnings yield	8.24%
EV/Earnings	11.83x
EV/FCF	4.18x
EV/Sales	2.54x
FCF / EV yield	23.92%
FCF yield	24.09%
Forward EV/Sales	1.87x
Forward P/E	8.96x
Forward P/S	1.85x
Graham number	257.87243
Graham upside	25.8%
Industry forward P/E	19.57x
Industry P/E	22.74x
Lynch fair value	$84.46
Lynch upside	-58.8%
P/B ratio	1.16x
P/E ratio	12.13x
P/FCF ratio	4.15x
P/OCF ratio	3.92x
P/S ratio	2.52x
PEG ratio	0.83x
Price / tangible book value	2.13x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
Effective tax rate	20.43%
FCF margin	61.74%
Operating margin	31.13%
Pretax margin	26.97%
Profit margin	22.23%
Profit per employee	$137,641
Profitable quarters	4
Profitable years	17
Revenue per employee	$640,799
ROA	1.57%
ROA (5Y)	1.39%
ROE	9.39%
ROE (5Y)	10.52%
Tax / revenue	5.51%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	626.99%
EPS growth (Q)	16.19%
EPS growth (QoQ)	18.6%
EPS growth 10Y	9.21%
EPS growth 3Y	8.29%
EPS growth 5Y	-8.78%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	62.98%
FCF growth 3Y	22.07%
FCF growth 5Y	18.96%
Net income growth	667.99%
Net income growth (Q)	10.87%
Net income growth (QoQ)	16.59%
Net income growth 3Y	27.19%
Net income growth 5Y	-2.85%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	60.15%
OCF growth 10Y	9.8%
OCF growth 3Y	22.1%
OCF growth 5Y	19%
Revenue growth	69.26%
Revenue growth (Q)	6.19%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	4.41%
Revenue growth 10Y	9.89%
Revenue growth 3Y	22.9%
Revenue growth 5Y	9.04%
Revenue growth quarters	4
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-1.8B
EPS	$16.89
FCF per share	$49.38
Financing cash flow	$-2.9B
Free cash flow	$29.7B
Gross profit	$48.9B
Income taxes	$2.7B
Investing cash flow	$-34.2B
Net borrowing	$-8B
Net cash flow	$-5.7B
Net income	$10.5B
Operating income	$15.2B
Revenue	$48.9B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$174.96
Debt / equity	0.45
Debt / FCF	1.68
Goodwill	$31.9B
Net cash (debt)	$-885M
Net cash / market cap	-0.72%
Net debt / equity	0.01
Net debt / FCF	0.03
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$6.2B
Shareholders' equity	$109.7B
Tangible book value	$57.8B
Tangible book value per share	$96.07
Total assets	$672.9B
Total cash	$48.9B
Total debt	$49.8B
Total liabilities	$563.2B
WACC	7.1%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Working capital	$-428.6B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-30.03%
Dividend growth	33.33%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.18%
Dividend growth (3Y)	10.06%
Dividend growth (5Y)	16.36%
Dividend growth years	1
Dividend payment date	2026-09-01
Dividend payment years	32
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$3.20
Dividend yield	1.56%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-17
FCF payout ratio	6.48%
Last dividend	$0.80
Payout ratio	18.94%
Shareholder yield	-28.47%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	173.93%
10Y return CAGR	12.55%
10Y total return	226.07%
150-day SMA	$200.01
15Y price change	335.31%
15Y return CAGR	12.13%
15Y total return	456.96%
1D price change	0.76%
1M price change	2.35%
1M total return	2.35%
1W price change	1.66%
1W total return	1.66%
1Y price change	-8.32%
1Y return CAGR	-6.9%
1Y total return	-6.89%
20-day SMA	$199.62
200-day SMA	$201.47
20Y price change	150.92%
20Y return CAGR	6.4%
20Y total return	245.9%
3M price change	-1.04%
3M total return	-0.69%
3Y price change	109.64%
3Y return CAGR	29.97%
3Y total return	119.6%
50-day SMA	$205.08
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$259.64
52-week high date	2026-01-06
52-week low	$174.24
52-week low date	2026-06-11
5Y price change	34.36%
5Y return CAGR	7.97%
5Y total return	46.73%
6M price change	5.56%
6M total return	6.39%
All-time high	$259.64
All-time high date	2026-01-06
All-time low	$4.63
All-time low date	1994-12-09
Average true range (ATR)	$4.72
Average volume	3.9M
Beta (1Y)	1.2
Beta (2Y)	1.48
Beta (5Y)	1.04
Change from 52-week high	-21.05%
Change from 52-week low	17.65%
Change from all-time high	-21.08%
Change from all-time low	4,330.27%
Change from open	0.14%
Day's gap	0.62%
Dollar volume	$421.7M
High price	$205.49
Low price	$203.13
Monthly RSI	54.4
Open price	$204.71
Position in 52-week range	78.81%
Premarket change	0.11%
Premarket close	$203.44
Premarket price	$203.66
Premarket volume	2.6K
Previous close	$203.44
Price vs 150-day SMA	2.45%
Price vs 20-day SMA	2.65%
Price vs 200-day SMA	1.7%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-0.09%
Relative volume	0.53
RSI	55.35
Sharpe ratio	-0.21
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.92
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.21
Sortino ratio	-0.1
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.56
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.46
Volume	2.1M
Weekly RSI	50.43
YTD price change	-15.46%
YTD total return	-14.47%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	592.9M
Float percentage	98.57%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.87%
Shares change (YoY)	30.03%
Shares held by insiders	0.78%
Shares held by institutions	89.93%
Shares outstanding	601.5M
Short % of float	1.51%
Short % of shares	1.49%
Short ratio	2.5 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	115

Deeper analysis on COF

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this COF report

What is the latest published COF stock rating?

Capital One Financial Corporation is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full COF analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/COF/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for COF?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives COF a fair value of USD 201 and a potential value of USD 284. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the COF page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldCOF · Fair value $201+0.3%

Read full analysis →

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Our latest published analysis: COF rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · COF

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All COF indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on COF

Frequently asked questions

Derecelendirme geçmişi

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	4.0