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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-10Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Fiyat
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$201
$201–$274
Tavsiye
Sat
confidence 82/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
İngilizce yedekTR
Çeviri yapılırken İngilizce kaynak gösteriliyor
Bu rapor henüz çevrilmedi. Çeviri kuyruğu yetiştiğinde birkaç dakika sonra sayfayı yenileyin.

§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Dönem2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Gelir$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Brüt kâr$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Faaliyet kârı$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M
Net kâr$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M
EPS (sulandırılmış)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M
R&D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Kalite puanları

Piotroski F-skor
4 / 9
0–9 kalite bileşkesi
Altman Z-skor
12.78
İflas riski (>3 güvenli)
Beneish M-skor
-2.95
Kazanç manipülasyonu riski
OCF / Net kâr
-9.92
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Fail
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
-0.0%
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
24 ay tavsiye arşivi
İzleme listesi brifingleri + tavsiye değişiklik uyarıları
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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.
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