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MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-10Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Fiyat
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$275
$193–$377
Tavsiye
Tut
confidence 77/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
-8.0%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
İngilizce yedekTR
Çeviri yapılırken İngilizce kaynak gösteriliyor
Bu rapor henüz çevrilmedi. Çeviri kuyruğu yetiştiğinde birkaç dakika sonra sayfayı yenileyin.

§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Dönem2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Gelir$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
Brüt kâr$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
Faaliyet kârı$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
Net kâr$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
EPS (sulandırılmış)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
R&D$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
SG&A$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

Kalite puanları

Piotroski F-skor
5 / 9
0–9 kalite bileşkesi
Altman Z-skor
18.58
İflas riski (>3 güvenli)
Beneish M-skor
-2.86
Kazanç manipülasyonu riski
OCF / Net kâr
-7.1
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Fail
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
-0.0%
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Nakit akışı

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Sermaye tahsisi

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

MDB balance sheet questions

  1. MDB (MDB)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

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