Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

NYSE: MPC · USD

$440

+4.36 (+1.0%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: MPC rated Reduce

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$341 / share

Potential value

$586 / share

Upside to FV

-19.4%

from $440

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$123.3B
Revenue (ttm)	154.1B
Net income (ttm)	8.5B
EPS (ttm)	$28.8
Shares out	280.8M
P/E (trailing)	15.3x
P/E (forward)	5.5x
Dividend	$4.00 (0.91%)
Volume	2,308,148
Beta	0.54

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 154.1B
Net income (ttm): 8.5B
EPS (ttm): $28.8
P/E (trailing): 15.3x
P/E (forward): 5.5x
Market cap: $123.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$119.98B	$177.45B	$148.38B	$138.86B	$132.70B	+2.6%
Gross profit	$6.61B	$22.57B	$16.51B	$9.29B	$10.00B	+10.9%
Operating income	$4.30B	$21.47B	$14.51B	$6.80B	$8.29B	+17.8%
Net income	$9.74B	$14.52B	$9.68B	$3.45B	$4.05B	-19.7%
EPS (diluted)	$15.24	$28.12	$23.63	$10.08	$13.22	-3.5%
EBITDA	$7.45B	$24.88B	$18.56B	$10.60B	$11.68B	+11.9%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$2.54B	$2.77B	$3.04B	$3.22B	$3.35B	+7.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	Tut
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	Tut
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	Sat
BKR	Baker Hughes Company	54.3B	18.8x	1.9x	11.7%	+7.0%	+20.1%	Sat
COP	ConocoPhillips	179B	19.8x	2.8x	11.6%	+16.8%	+73.8%	Tut
CVX	Chevron Corporation	448.9B	22.0x	2.2x	8.2%	+12.6%	+54.1%	Azalt

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$340.57

-19.4% from spot

Refining margins normalize gradually from peak FY2026 levels (8.5% operating margin) toward mid-cycle levels of 5.5%. Throughput utilization stabilizes near 92-94%, supported by high system complexity and lowest-decade unplanned downtime. MPLX continues delivering mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, funding steady share count contraction at approximately 3.0% annually and supporting the composite fair value of $340.57.

Operating margin fades from 8.5% in 2026 to 5.5% terminal
Revenue contracts -12.27% in FY2027 before stabilizing at 2.0% terminal growth
Terminal valuation multiple of 9.5x forward earnings

Bull25%

Price target

$585.75

+38.7% from spot

Geopolitical refining capacity constraints across Europe and Russia persist, keeping global refined product inventories lean and supporting structurally elevated distillate and jet fuel crack spreads. Refining utilization remains above 94%, while prompt market capture and heavy crude processing deliver operating margins near cycle peaks. Expanding MPLX distributions cover dividends and capex, enabling aggressive share repurchases that drive per-share value toward the upper valuation range.

Refining operating margin sustained at elevated peak-cycle levels
Refinery utilization maintained at or above 94%
Annual share retirement rate of 4.0% supported by MPLX cash flow

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($340.57). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.8%	$340	$355	$373	$395	$424
7.3%	$322	$334	$348	$365	$387
7.8%	$306	$316	$341	$341	$358
8.3%	$292	$300	$310	$321	$335
8.8%	$279	$286	$294	$304	$315

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E5.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E13.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE42.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC18.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All MPC indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

285

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001510295
Company name	Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	56585A102
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	18,500
Employees change	200
Employees growth	1.09%
Enterprise value	$150.2B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1887
In index	SP500
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
IPO date	2011-07-01
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US56585A1025
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-26
Last earnings date	2026-08-04
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2015-06-11
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$123.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$440.36
Price currency	USD
Sector	Energy
SIC code	2911
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	MPC
U.S. state	Ohio
Website	https://www.marathonpetroleum.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	16.64x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	11.74x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	12.76x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	9.34x
Earnings yield	6.53%
EV/Earnings	17.5x
EV/EBIT	12.38x
EV/EBITDA	9.71x
EV/FCF	11.59x
EV/Sales	0.97x
FCF / EV yield	8.63%
FCF yield	10.48%
Forward EV/Sales	0.89x
Forward P/E	5.38x
Forward P/S	0.74x
Graham number	208.83671
Graham upside	-52.33%
Industry forward P/E	6.12x
Industry P/E	12.2x
Lynch fair value	$143.77
Lynch upside	-67.18%
P/B ratio	6.47x
P/E ratio	15.31x
P/FCF ratio	9.54x
P/OCF ratio	7.18x
P/S ratio	0.8x
PEG ratio	0.15x
Price / tangible book value	17.21x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.99x
Sector forward P/E	10.06x
Sector P/E	15.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	7.84%
EBITDA margin	9.99%
Effective tax rate	19.26%
FCF margin	8.37%
Gross margin	12.82%
Operating margin	7.84%
Pretax margin	8.28%
Profit margin	5.55%
Profit per employee	$461,946
Profitable quarters	5
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$8.3M
ROA	8.74%
ROA (5Y)	7.14%
ROCE	18.06%
ROE	42.1%
ROE (5Y)	26.09%
ROIC	18.09%
ROIC (5Y)	15.6%
Tax / revenue	1.6%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	329.54%
EPS growth (Q)	347.99%
EPS growth (QoQ)	924.86%
EPS growth 10Y	23.01%
EPS growth 3Y	0.95%
EPS growth 5Y	19.51%
EPS growth quarters	4
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	253.69%
FCF growth (Q)	370.22%
FCF growth (QoQ)	4,294.71%
FCF growth 3Y	0.86%
FCF growth 5Y	35.87%
Gross profit growth	67.81%
Gross profit growth (Q)	133.77%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-6.31%
Gross profit growth 5Y	21.26%
Net income growth	300.66%
Net income growth (Q)	322.53%
Net income growth (QoQ)	904.5%
Net income growth 3Y	-12.46%
Net income growth 5Y	2.19%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	164.86%
OCF growth (Q)	291.32%
OCF growth (QoQ)	821.23%
OCF growth 10Y	14.37%
OCF growth 3Y	4.66%
OCF growth 5Y	30.74%
Operating income growth	171.42%
Operating income growth (Q)	257.98%
Operating income growth 3Y	-10.92%
Operating income growth 5Y	67.4%
Revenue growth	15.15%
Revenue growth (Q)	53.71%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	51.44%
Revenue growth 10Y	10.58%
Revenue growth 3Y	-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y	11.87%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-4.2B
Depreciation and amortization	$3.3B
EBIT	$12.1B
EBITDA	$15.4B
EPS	$28.75
FCF per share	$45.93
Financing cash flow	$-4.6B
Free cash flow	$12.9B
Gross profit	$19.8B
Income taxes	$2.5B
Investing cash flow	$-6.4B
Net borrowing	$3.5B
Net cash flow	$6.1B
Net income	$8.5B
Operating income	$12.1B
Revenue	$154.1B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.34
Book value per share	$67.41
Debt / EBITDA	2.02
Debt / equity	1.33
Debt / FCF	2.66
Goodwill	$9.3B
Interest coverage	8.06
Long-term assets	$60B
Long-term liabilities	$41.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-26.5B
Net cash / market cap	-21.56%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.72
Net debt / equity	1.03
Net debt / FCF	2.06
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$39.4B
Shareholders' equity	$25.7B
Tangible book value	$7.1B
Tangible book value per share	$25.26
Total assets	$94.3B
Total cash	$7.8B
Total debt	$34.3B
Total liabilities	$68.6B
WACC	6.42%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.78
Current assets	$34.3B
Current liabilities	$27.4B
Current ratio	1.25
Inventory turnover	13.39
Net working capital	$1.7B
Quick ratio	0.86
Working capital	$6.9B
Working capital turnover	27.19

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	6.6%
Dividend growth	9.89%
Dividend growth (10Y)	11.72%
Dividend growth (3Y)	10.06%
Dividend growth (5Y)	11.51%
Dividend growth years	4
Dividend payment date	2026-09-10
Dividend payment years	16
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$4.00
Dividend yield	0.91%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-19
FCF payout ratio	8.71%
Last dividend	$1.00
Payout ratio	13.91%
Shareholder yield	7.52%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	929.57%
10Y return CAGR	30.09%
10Y total return	1,287.85%
150-day SMA	$316.41
15Y price change	2,261.43%
15Y return CAGR	26.99%
15Y total return	3,500.73%
1D price change	1%
1M price change	12%
1M total return	12%
1W price change	-7.22%
1W total return	-7.22%
1Y price change	124.61%
1Y return CAGR	128.5%
1Y total return	128.37%
20-day SMA	$456.26
200-day SMA	$287.88
3M price change	41.11%
3M total return	41.5%
3Y price change	201.89%
3Y return CAGR	47.39%
3Y total return	220.29%
50-day SMA	$414.65
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$493.98
52-week high date	2026-10-19
52-week low	$161.93
52-week low date	2025-12-31
5Y price change	566.3%
5Y return CAGR	49.43%
5Y total return	644.81%
6M price change	93.99%
6M total return	95.26%
All-time high	$493.98
All-time high date	2026-10-19
All-time low	$13.18
All-time low date	2011-09-29
Average true range (ATR)	$17.66
Average volume	2M
Beta (1Y)	-1.15
Beta (2Y)	0.49
Beta (5Y)	0.54
Change from 52-week high	-10.85%
Change from 52-week low	171.95%
Change from all-time high	-10.77%
Change from all-time low	3,245.43%
Change from open	-0.16%
Day's gap	1.16%
Dollar volume	$1B
High price	$444.44
Low price	$434.00
Monthly RSI	88.45
Open price	$441.05
Position in 52-week range	60.92%
Premarket change	0.88%
Premarket close	$435.98
Premarket price	$439.82
Premarket volume	6.2K
Previous close	$435.98
Price vs 150-day SMA	39.3%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-3.4%
Price vs 200-day SMA	53.1%
Price vs 50-day SMA	6.3%
Relative volume	1.17
RSI	49.52
Sharpe ratio	2.35
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.19
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	1.24
Sortino ratio	3.83
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.89
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.98
Volume	2.3M
Weekly RSI	69.08
YTD price change	171.02%
YTD total return	174.17%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	280M
Float percentage	99.7%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.69%
Shares change (YoY)	-6.6%
Shares held by insiders	0.19%
Shares held by institutions	79.01%
Shares outstanding	280.8M
Short % of float	2.51%
Short % of shares	2.51%
Short ratio	2.3 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	235

Deeper analysis on MPC

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this MPC report

What is the latest published MPC stock rating?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full MPC analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/MPC/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for MPC?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives MPC a fair value of USD 341 and a potential value of USD 586. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the MPC page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceMPC · Fair value $341-19.4%

Read full analysis →

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Our latest published analysis: MPC rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · MPC

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All MPC indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on MPC

Frequently asked questions

Derecelendirme geçmişi

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5