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MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $89.9, high $162, with mid-point at $128.
Stock analysis

MS fair value $90–$162

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-08Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Fiyat
$193.09
▼ -65.03 (-33.68%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$128
$90–$162
Tavsiye
Sat
confidence 88/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
-33.7%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$108.85
MoS level · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$304.6B
P/E fwd 15.2
İngilizce yedekTR
Çeviri yapılırken İngilizce kaynak gösteriliyor
Bu rapor henüz çevrilmedi. Çeviri kuyruğu yetiştiğinde birkaç dakika sonra sayfayı yenileyin.

§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Composite fair value $128 with high case $162.
  • Implied downside of 33.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$128
Margin of safety
-50.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$193.09Price
Low $89.88
Mid $128.06
High $161.78

MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale and brand prestige in
    Scale and brand prestige in Wealth Management ($5T+ client assets).
  • Top-three global ranking in Equities
    Top-three global ranking in Equities and Investment Banking.
  • Cycle upside
    Expanding global money supply, robust IPO/M&A activity, and rising equity markets driving AUM growth.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

Under a severe stagflationary environment, the dual impact of plunging asset values on fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and paralyzed M&A/capital markets activity could collapse EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. towards the DDM floor of $71.45. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. reverses violently.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Severe Equity Market Drawdown

25%· Medium

A prolonged 20%+ market correction drives severe AUM attrition, compressing fee yields and crushing capital markets activity simultaneously.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
0-12 months

Wealth Management Margin Compression

15%· Low

Intensified competition for advisor talent and client cash sorting drives structurally lower net interest margins and fee compression.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Capital Penalties

10%· Low

Basel endgame or enhanced capital requirements force MS to hold significantly more equity, permanently impairing ROTCE.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
18-36 months
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Consecutive quarters of negative net new assets in Wealth Management.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained declines in net interest margin.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Surge in advisor attrition or elevated recruitment costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital markets revenue underperforming peer benchmarks (GS).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
ROTCE falling persistently below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Dönem2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Gelir$56.41B$50.21B$50.67B$57.62B$65.97B+4.0%
Brüt kâr——————
Faaliyet kârı——————
Net kâr$15.03B$11.03B$9.09B$13.39B$16.86B+2.9%
EPS (sulandırılmış)—$6.15$5.18$7.95$10.21+13.5%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$25.27B$23.96B$25.46B$27.14B$30.25B+4.6%

Kalite puanları

OCF / Net kâr
-1.06
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Pass
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
—
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Nakit akışı

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Sermaye tahsisi

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

MS income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of MS (MS) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

MS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $193 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $128 (range $89.9–$162), which implies roughly 33.7% downside to the midpoint.

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