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Rocket Lab is executing a high-risk, high-reward transition from small-lift (Electron) to medium-lift (Neutron) and high-margin space systems. The current valuation prices in flawless execution and capturing significant orbital market share from SpaceX. Fair value range: low $14.9, high $28.8, with mid-point at $21.2.
Stock analysis

RKLB fair value $15–$29

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-20Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Fiyat
$134.28
▼ -113.07 (-84.20%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$21
$15–$29
Tavsiye
Sat
confidence 53/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
-84.2%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$18.03
MoS level · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$77.7B
P/E fwd 0.0
İngilizce yedekTR
Çeviri yapılırken İngilizce kaynak gösteriliyor
Bu rapor henüz çevrilmedi. Çeviri kuyruğu yetiştiğinde birkaç dakika sonra sayfayı yenileyin.

§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Extreme market disconnect: 62% implied growth gap required to justify current price.
  • Heavy reliance on a single relative valuation model (EV/Revenue) due to massive cash burn.
  • Significant capital intensity and dilution execution risk during the Neutron buildout phase.
Fair value
$21
Margin of safety
-533.1%
Confidence
53/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$134.28Price
Low $14.89
Mid $21.21
High $28.80

Rocket Lab is executing a high-risk, high-reward transition from small-lift (Electron) to medium-lift (Neutron) and high-margin space systems. The current valuation prices in flawless execution and capturing significant orbital market share from SpaceX.

  • Cycle upside
    Surging demand for mega-constellations and sovereign space infrastructure driving inelastic launch and hardware demand.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

An aggressive 12.33% WACCWACCWeighted average cost of capital. The blended after-tax discount rate applied to free cash flows in a DCF, reflecting both equity and debt financing costs. isolates the stock's vulnerability. Any slip in Neutron's timeline triggers a severe free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. cliff, demanding highly dilutive equity raises in a capital-constrained environment to bridge the burn.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Neutron Development Failure

· High

Neutron experiences costly delays or launch failures, forcing highly dilutive capital raises while legacy primes compress margins.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

SpaceX Rideshare Pricing War

· High

SpaceX aggressively drops rideshare payload pricing, permanently impairing Electron unit economics and capping Space Systems margin expansion.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
0-12 months

Catastrophic Dilutive Capital Raise

· Medium

Prolonged negative free cash flows necessitate a massive equity offering at depressed valuations, permanently diluting shareholder baseline returns.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-18 months
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Space Systems gross margin failing to break 40% post-Neutron deployment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consecutive quarters of operating cash flow burn exceeding $200M.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained loss of orbital market share to SpaceX rideshare programs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delays in Neutron engine hot-fire testing or pad integration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected upward revisions in capital expenditure guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Dönem2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Gelir—$211.0M$244.6M$436.2M$601.8M+30.0%
Brüt kâr—$19.0M$51.4M$116.1M$207.2M+81.7%
Faaliyet kârı—$-135.2M$-177.9M$-189.8M$-228.8M—
Net kâr—$-135.9M$-182.6M$-190.2M$-198.2M—
EPS (sulandırılmış)$-0.56$-0.29$-0.38$-0.38——
EBITDA—$-95.2M$-131.7M$-129.6M$-155.5M—
R&D—$65.2M$119.1M$174.4M$270.7M+42.8%
SG&A—$89.0M$110.3M$131.6M$165.3M+16.7%

Kalite puanları

OCF / Net kâr
0.84×
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Fail
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
-8.0%
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Nakit akışı

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Sermaye tahsisi

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
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REVERSE DCF FAQ

RKLB reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for RKLB (RKLB) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

RKLB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, RKLB looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $134 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $21.2 (range $14.9–$28.8), which implies roughly 84.2% downside to the midpoint.

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