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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
STZ — frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Brands Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-09, STZ looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 123 versus our fair value of USD 181; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 277. That implies roughly 47.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-09, gives STZ a fair value of USD 181 and a potential value of USD 277. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Constellation Brands Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy STZ now?
Our latest published rating for STZ, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy. Constellation Brands Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 123 versus fair value of USD 181; potential value is USD 277. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for STZ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-09 documents Constellation Brands Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is STZ's rating?
Our latest published rating for STZ, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 181, the potential value of USD 277, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 123).
Bu rapor henüz çevrilmedi. Çeviri kuyruğu yetiştiğinde birkaç dakika sonra sayfayı yenileyin.
§1 Yönetici özetiEN
30 saniyelik yanıtStrong Buy
Fiyat ve değer karşılaştırması
Fiyat
$122.64
Adil değer
$181.25
Potansiyel değer
$276.58
Tarih
2026-10-09
Neden işe yarayabilir
The largest opportunity is the imminent normalization of capital expenditure as the Veracruz brewery enters commercial service in early FY2028.
Görüşümüzü ne değiştirir
Macroeconomic discretionary spending weakness and aggressive competitor discounting forcing promotional couponing and elevated marketing expenses exceeding 11% of sales in Q3.
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) is assigned a Strong Buy rating with a house fair value of $181.25 per share, representing 47.79% upside from the October 9, 2026 price of $122.64. The primary downside risks stem from balance-sheet leverage ($10,315.7M total debt) and flat net pricing realization. The investment thesis centers on the enduring power of its Mexican beer franchise (accounting for 91% of sales) and a multi-year free cash flow inflection as capital expenditures normalize following the commissioning of the Veracruz brewery in early FY2028.3,5
Constellation Brands represents a high-conviction turnaround in the consumer defensive sector. At $122.64, the stock trades at an attractive 10.02x forward P/E, reflecting market skepticism over distributor inventory rebalancing, flat net pricing realization in Q2, and balance-sheet leverage ($10,315.7M total debt). This valuation overlooks the fundamental earnings power of Constellation's Mexican beer portfolio, which captured three times more market share gains than competitors and generated $3,161.0M in segment operating profit in FY2026.3,5,7
The pivotal operational catalyst is the inflection in capital intensity. Constellation's annual capex moderated from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026. Executive leadership confirmed that the Veracruz brewery is on track to enter commercial service in early FY2028, marking the completion of major multi-year capacity expansions. As reinvestment rates step down from construction peaks toward steady-state maintenance levels (~18% of NOPAT), annual free cash flow will expand substantially. This cash generation provides ample liquidity to service scheduled debt maturities and execute the remaining $2.5B share repurchase authorization through FY2028.5,6
Our house fair value midpoint of $181.25 synthesizes forward earnings ($135.85 midpoint, 40% weight), free cash flow discounting ($232.19 midpoint, 20% weight), owner earnings ($128.25 midpoint, 20% weight), and discounted earnings ($274.09 midpoint, 20% weight). Our fair value sits 28.4% above the present-value equivalent of the analyst consensus 12-month price target ($141.12 present value vs $151.74 undiscounted target). This divergence is justified by our multi-year explicit modeling of the Veracruz free cash flow inflection, which short-term sell-side targets underappreciate. We assign a 4-6% portfolio sizing, balancing high core brewing conviction against balance-sheet debt and wholesale customer concentration.
Franchise Dominance Across Imported Mexican Beer
Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico form an unmatched brand moat in US brewing, capturing 3x higher market share gains than competitors and sustaining guided second-half operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%.5
With capex stepping down from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026 and Veracruz entering service in early FY2028, annual free cash flow will expand substantially, supporting debt repayment and share repurchases under the active $2.5B authorization.5,6
Trading at 10.02x forward earnings, STZ trades at an unwarranted 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25) and well below staples peer multiples (CLX 13.17x, KMB 13.05x), providing exceptional margin of safety.3
Kurum tavsiyesi
The investment committee assigns a Strong Buy recommendation for Constellation Brands Inc. with a house fair value of $181.25, supported by exceptional beer unit economics and an approaching free cash flow inflection as Veracruz construction concludes.
Şirkete genel bakış
Constellation Brands Inc. is a leading producer, marketer, and distributor of beer, wine, and spirits in the United States. The company's economic engine is its imported Mexican beer franchise, which includes Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, Pacifico, and Victoria. In FY2026, the beer division generated $8,315.2M in net sales, accounting for 91% of consolidated net sales, and $3,161.0M in segment operating income. Its premium wine and spirits division accounts for the remaining 9% of net sales ($823.8M in FY2026).
Constellation distributes its products through independent wholesale distributors. Distribution is highly consolidated: the Reyes Beer Division represents 27.5% of total company net sales, and the top ten wholesale customers collectively account for approximately 60% of consolidated net sales. The company operates major brewing and packaging facilities in Nava and Obregon, Mexico, with a new state-of-the-art brewery under construction in Veracruz scheduled for commercial startup in early FY2028.
§2 Olumsuz senaryoEN
Our stress testing evaluates the resilience of Constellation Brands under a compound deterioration scenario combining severe promotional discounting, distributor inventory destocking, and rising debt capital costs. Under this stress test, beer segment operating margins compress to 32.0% as marketing spend is sustained above 10% to defend shelf space amidst flat net realized pricing. Concurrently, wholesale distributor destocking across primary partners like Reyes Beer Division (27.5% share) holds consolidated revenue growth stagnant. Furthermore, refinancing challenges on Constellation's $10,315.7M debt load lift WACC from 6.52% to 7.50%. In this compounded downside framework, annual free cash flow is restricted to debt service, forcing management to pause its $2.5B share repurchase authorization. This pushes the valuation toward the conservative valuation floor of $121.28, establishing that the October 9, 2026 price of $122.64 already prices in near-complete operational impairment.
Beer segment operating margin contracts below 32.0% due to promotional couponing
Distributor destocking results in stagnant consolidated revenue growth
Veracruz commissioning incurs higher initial operational costs and sustained capex5
WACC expands toward 7.50% due to debt refinancing pressure2
In the downside stress case, consumer spending softness and promotional competition constrain pricing power, keeping net pricing flat and necessitating sustained marketing spend above 10%. Distributor inventory destocking across top wholesalers leads to multi-quarter shipment headwinds. Furthermore, start-up depreciation and operational friction at Veracruz in early FY2028 delay free cash flow expansion, while high debt service ($10,315.7M total debt) restricts share repurchase activity.
Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar
Severe beer operating margin compression from sustained promotional discounting and elevated marketing
Management guided second-half beer operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%. However, Q2 pricing net of mix was roughly flat with a 25 bps headwind from portfolio repositioning, while Q3 marketing expense is guided above 11% and full-year second half marketing around 10%. If competitive pressure forces continued discounting, beer operating margin dropping below 32% impairs consolidated operating profit given beer represents 91% of revenue.5,7
Promotional discounting, commercial couponing, and marketing expense exceeding 11% in Q3 compress core brewing margins, directly impairing consolidated EBIT given beer generates 91% of sales.
Güncel:Guided at 34.5%-35.5% for 2H FY2027
Şu durumda uyar< 32.0%
02
§3 Rekabet kalkanıEN
Narrow
Constellation Brands commands a solid Narrow economic moat derived from high-barrier intangible brand assets and low-cost scale advantages in Mexican brewing. Through its perpetual, exclusive US commercial rights to Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, Pacifico, and Victoria, Constellation has built the leading import beer franchise in North America. In FY2026, the beer division generated $8,315.2M in net sales, representing 91% of consolidated net sales, and delivered $3,161.0M in segment operating income. Brand strength is demonstrated by market share capture; management confirmed that Constellation captured three times more market share gains in beer than the next best competitor.
The company's structural cost advantage stems from concentrated brewing and bottling infrastructure in Mexico. Operating mega-breweries in Nava and Obregon allows Constellation to exploit significant scale economies in raw material procurement, high-speed automated packaging, and cross-border rail logistics. This production efficiency enables Constellation to generate peer-leading beer operating margins, guided at 34.5% to 35.5% for the second half of FY2027. These brewing economics far exceed the broader packaged goods peer group, where median operating margins sit near 19.0% (KMB at 19.00%, CLX at 12.89%). Furthermore, programmatic continuous improvement initiatives have captured approximately $600M in cumulative cost efficiencies since Investor Day.
The third pillar supporting the moat is Constellation's entrenched route-to-market distribution system. Constellation distributes its beer portfolio via exclusive wholesale franchise agreements, led by the Reyes Beer Division, which accounted for 27.5% of total company net sales in FY2026. The ten largest distributor customers represented approximately 60% of total net sales across each of the past three fiscal years. This extensive wholesale alignment secures dominant shelf-space allocation in high-velocity cold boxes and retail displays, creating significant distribution friction for sub-scale competitors attempting to enter the imported Mexican beer segment.
Ekonomik kâr
Constellation generates an 11.42% return on invested capital, exceeding its computed WACC of 6.52% by 490 basis points and outpacing its moderate cost of equity of 7.52%. This consistent economic profit is generated almost entirely by the beer division, which earned $3,161.0M in operating income on $8,315.2M in net sales in FY2026.2,7
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible Assets (Exclusive Brand Licensing & Consumer Brand Equity) — Perpetual exclusive US rights to Grupo Modelo brands generate $8,315.2M in annual beer revenue (91% of consolidated net sales) and $3,161.0M in segment operating profit, outperforming competitors with 3x higher beer market share gains.Wide
02Cost Advantage & Scale in Mexican Brewing Operations — Large-scale brewing facilities in Nava and Obregon, complemented by the upcoming Veracruz facility entering service in early FY2028, deliver superior production and packaging scale that supports guided second-half beer operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($181.25). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.6B after modeled reinvestment of $518.4M, with terminal value at 85.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal expected path reflects steady execution of the capital and operating turnaround. Revenue growth normalizes from -0.57% in FY2027 toward 3.5%-3.8% over the forecast horizon, led by core Mexican beer volume gains. Second-half FY2027 beer operating margins hold within the guided 34.5%-35.5% band, supporting consolidated operating margins around 29.8% to 30.4%. Veracruz comes online in early FY2028, initiating depreciation but moderating annual capex from $875.0M toward steady-state levels, generating over $1.6B in free cash flow and funding steady share repurchases.1,5,6
An earnings beat confirms that marketing spend (guided at 10%) successfully stimulated volume without degrading net pricing realization, reaffirming core earnings power.
Beklenti içi
Maintain Strong Buy; Maintain allocation steady and monitor quarterly distributor depletions relative to shipments.
Tetikleyici: Comparable EPS within $11.20-$11.90 and second-half beer operating margin within 34.5%-35.5%5
Inline results demonstrate faithful execution against management guidance while keeping the Veracruz capex step-down thesis intact for FY2028.
Altında kaldı
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental accumulation, reduce position sizing toward the lower allocation threshold, and verify whether promotional couponing has compromised brand equity.
A margin decline below 32% indicates that promotional couponing and marketing overhead have failed to defend volumes, eroding the structural pricing power of the core Mexican beer franchise.
Kazanç kalitesi
Earnings quality is high and underpinned by cash-generative brewing operations. In FY2026, beer operating income of $3,161.0M drove consolidated EBIT of $2,721.4M and net income of $1,686.7M. Annual stock-based compensation of $67.7M represents a modest 0.74% of revenue, closely aligning with the industry benchmark of 0.6%. Non-operating adjustments in recent quarters have primarily reflected non-cash wine brand impairments and routine transactional items rather than aggressive operational capitalization.6,7
Tahminlerin yönü
Post-earnings consensus estimate revisions have drifted marginally lower, with FY2027 consensus EPS trimmed by -0.13% and FY2028 EPS down by -0.17%. These adjustments incorporate distributor inventory rebalancing and flat net pricing in Q2, but consensus remains well within management's reiterated full-year comparable EPS guidance of $11.20-$11.90.5
Constellation's cash generation is poised for a multi-year inflection. Historically, the company demonstrated solid cash conversion, generating $1,696.0M in operating cash flow and $788.6M in free cash flow in FY2017. During the heavy transformation phase of FY2024-FY2026, free cash flow was constrained by capital expenditures exceeding $1.2B annually. As Veracruz enters service in early FY2028, capital intensity drops toward maintenance levels (~18% of NOPAT), driving free cash flow expansion above $1.6B annually and providing strong support for equity intrinsic value.3,5,6,8
Sermaye tahsisi
Constellation's capital allocation strategy is entering a new phase defined by moderation, debt deleveraging, and shareholder capital return. Having funded the multi-year Veracruz brewery buildout, declined from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026, and is slated to step down to steady-state maintenance levels following commercial commissioning in early FY2028. The company carries total debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M with a pre-tax of 5.87%. With strong exceeding $2.6B, management has the capability to address upcoming debt maturities while actively repurchasing shares under the remaining $2.5B authorization through FY2028.
Constellation's ROIC of 11.42% is on an improving trajectory as capital expenditures normalize. As the $875.0M capex invested in FY2026 converts into operational brewing capacity at Veracruz in early FY2028, asset turnover and NOPAT will expand simultaneously, widening economic profits.
Constellation's 11.42% ROIC maintains a favorable spread of 490 basis points over its computed WACC of 6.52% and exceeds its moderate cost of equity of 7.52%, confirming positive economic value addition.
Beer Franchise Profitability Far Outweighs Wine & Spirits Drag
Beer operating income reached $3,161.0M on $8,315.2M (91% of sales) in FY2026, whereas Wine & Spirits generated just $10.5M operating profit on $823.8M revenue.
Son gelir$9,1 MrGelir CAGR +%2,5
Faaliyet marjı%29,810 mali dönem
Son serbest nakit akışı$1,8 MrFY2026
Net borç$10,2 MrFY2026
Gelir tablosu dökümüİşletme ölçeğinin raporlanan kâra nasıl dönüştüğü.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Gelir$9,1 MrSatışların maliyeti−$4,4 MrBrüt kâr$4,7 MrFaaliyet giderleri−$2 MrFaaliyet kârı$2,7 MrFaaliyet dışı kalemler ve vergiler−$1 MrNet kâr$1,7 Mr
Finansal geçmiş verileri
Gelir
$9.139.000.000
Satışların maliyeti
$4.427.500.000
Brüt kâr
$4.711.500.000
Faaliyet giderleri
$1.990.100.000
Faaliyet kârı
$2.721.400.000
Faaliyet dışı kalemler ve vergiler
-$1.034.700.000
Net kâr
$1.686.700.000
Bilanço özetiRaporlanan varlıkların seçili dönemde nasıl tutulduğu ve finanse edildiği.
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) trades at 10.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.2x compares with a peer median of 10.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Kimberly-Clark Corporation, The J.M. Smucker Company, Target Corporation and The Clorox Company, as of 2026-10-08.
§10 Sektör ve döngüEN
Döngü aşaması
Peak
Constellation's capital expenditure peaked at $1,214.1M in FY2025 and moderated to $875.0M in FY2026. Executive management reaffirmed that the Veracruz facility will enter service at the beginning of fiscal 2028, confirming the culmination of the mega-brewery expansion program. Industry capex-to-depreciation stands elevated at 2.17x, reflecting heavy category-wide packaging and brewing investments that are now cresting.5,6
Yükseliş döngüsü
During an industry upcycle, strong on-premise dining and entertainment traffic combined with robust consumer discretionary spending accelerate imported beer consumption. Breweries benefit from full capacity utilization, favorable packaging mix, and compound annual price realization of 1%-2% that expands operating margins above 35%.
Düşüş döngüsü
In an industry downturn, consumer real wage pressures lead to trade-down from premium imported beer into domestic sub-premium offerings, while distributors aggressively destock inventories to preserve working capital. Under this phase, breweries suffer unabsorbed fixed overhead and margin compression as promotional couponing intensifies to defend tap handles and retail shelf allocations.
Uzun vadeli eğilimler
Eğilim
Etki
Not
Demographic Expansion and Cross-Cultural Adoption of Mexican Beer
positive
The rapid demographic expansion of Hispanic consumers and growing cross-cultural adoption among non-Hispanic cohorts provide structural volume tailwinds for Modelo Especial and Pacifico.
Premiumization and Flavor Exploration
positive
Consumer preferences in alcohol continue to shift from traditional domestic lagers toward authentic, premium imports and flavorful alcoholic beverages.
Konumlandırma
Constellation occupies the premier position within the US brewing industry, focused squarely on high-end imported Mexican lagers. While domestic brewing conglomerates struggle with category volume attrition, Constellation has consistently outperformed, generating three times the market share gains of its nearest competitor. Its route-to-market integration with leading wholesalers secures priority placement across retail cold boxes and on-premise accounts.5,7
§11 Pozisyon yönetimiEN
Pozisyon büyüklüğü
4-6%
A high conviction 4-6% position is justified by the 47.79% upside to house fair value ($181.25) and the exceptional cash generation of the core Mexican beer franchise ($3,161.0M operating income). Position size is capped at 6% to account for balance-sheet debt ($10,315.7M total debt) and wholesale distributor concentration.3,7
Risk
Risk management is governed by strict allocation bounds (max 6% fund exposure), monitoring quarterly distributor shipment-to-depletion spreads, and tracking refinancing spreads on the company's debt obligations.
Giriş dilimleri
Seviye
Eylem
Neden
$120.00 - $123.00 (Initial Entry Zone)
Initiate 60% of target allocation
Captures deep value at 10.02x forward P/E and a 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25).
$110.00 - $115.00 (Pullback Zone)
Deploy remaining 40% of target allocation
Takes advantage of temporary post-earnings volatility or distributor shipment timing noise to establish an attractive average cost basis.
Çıkış dilimleri
Seviye
Eylem
$165.00
Trim 30% of position to capture initial gains as forward multiple re-rates toward peer medians
$181.25
Trim an additional 40% of position as the stock achieves house fair value
$210.00+
Hold remaining 30% runner to capture full Veracruz operational scale and long-term share repurchase compounding
Trim position by 25% and reduce projected margin assumptions; investigate whether promotional couponing has impaired pricing power.5
§12 Yatırımcı bakış açılarıEN
Institutional / Value Perspective
Buy
Compelling free cash flow inflection underpinned by a 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25), superior beer unit economics, and capex step-down post-FY2028.5
Tactical / Earnings-Cycle Perspective
Buy
Attractive entry multiple at 10.02x forward P/E offering multiple expansion toward peer medians of 13.0x as distributor inventories stabilize.3,4,5
Income / Risk-Averse Perspective
Hold
While long-term intrinsic value upside is substantial, income investors should note total debt of $10,315.7M and await initial balance-sheet deleveraging following Veracruz commissioning.3
§14 Nihai tavsiyeEN
Eylem
Güçlü Al
Constellation Brands offers a compelling turnaround opportunity in the consumer defensive sector, trading at an attractive 10.02x forward P/E compared to peers above 13.0x. The core Mexican beer franchise remains dominant, generating $3,161.0M in FY2026 operating income with 3x higher market share gains than competitors.3,4,5,7
With the Veracruz brewery scheduled to begin commercial operations in early FY2028, peak capital expenditure has passed, paving the way for a powerful free cash flow inflection and aggressive execution of the remaining $2.5B share repurchase authorization.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData covering 2026-10-09 to 2028-02-29 · cited for 2 figuresCited in Olumsuz senaryo, Senaryolar
Financial statementsData as of 2017-02-28 · Published 2026-10-09 · cited for 1 figureCited in Mali geçmiş
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Cost of capital repricing driven by elevated balance-sheet leverage and macroeconomic refinancing pressure
Constellation carries total debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M and pre-tax cost of debt of 5.87%. If WACC expands from 6.52% past 7.50% due to credit spread widening and refinancing pressure, enterprise valuation models contract steeply.2,3,6
FV impact
-13.8%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Distributor inventory destocking and shelf space contraction inducing multi-year revenue stagnation
FY2027 consensus estimates anticipate negative revenue growth of -0.57%, and post-earnings revisions show repeated downward estimate adjustments. With Reyes Beer Division representing 27.5% of net sales and the top 10 customers representing 60%, prolonged distributor destocking following inventory rebuilds would stall multi-year revenue growth.1,5,7
FV impact
-8.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Construction delays or equipment installation overruns at Veracruz in Mexico past early FY2028 would prevent capex normalization, depressing free cash flow conversion.
Güncel:$875.0M in FY2026
Şu durumda uyar> $1,100M in FY2028
03
Shipment vs depletion growth spread
Distributor inventory unwinds cause shipments to lag end-consumer demand, producing revenue contraction and brewery under-absorption across wholesalers representing 60% of volume.
Güncel:Shipments rebuilding inventory in 1H FY2027
Şu durumda uyarShipments trailing retail depletions by > 300 bps across consecutive quarters
04
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Widening corporate credit spreads and elevated refinancing rates across $10,315.7M total debt lift capital costs, compressing DCF valuations.
Disruption or contract renegotiations with the primary wholesale partner threatens national distribution reach and volume velocity across key metropolitan territories.
Güncel:27.5% of net sales in FY2026
Şu durumda uyar< 24.0%
Wide
03Route-to-Market Distribution Integration & Cold-Box Control — Deep operational integration with major wholesale distributors, led by Reyes Beer Division accounting for 27.5% of net sales and the top 10 wholesalers representing 60%, ensures premier placement in retail cold boxes and on-premise tap handles.Moderate
Maintaining long-term exclusive wholesale contracts and coordinating commercial promotion calendars to align shipments with consumer depletions.5
Cross-border trade policy changes or import tariffs between Mexico and the United States impacting imported beer cost structures
low
12-24 months
Completing the localized Veracruz brewery in early FY2028 to optimize logistics and maintain operational compliance under North American trade frameworks.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($42,72) plus discounted terminal value ($250) minus signed per current share ($60,25) equals the $232 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Consolidated operating margins expand past 31.5% supported by continuous improvement programs5
Active $2.5B share repurchase authorization completed ahead of schedule by FY20285
In the upside scenario, accelerated demographic penetration of Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Pacifico into non-Hispanic consumer segments drives medium-term organic beer revenue growth above 5.0%. The Veracruz brewery is commissioned seamlessly in early FY2028, lowering capex to maintenance levels of 18% of NOPAT and unlocking substantial free cash flow. Management utilizes expanded cash flow to complete the $2.5B share repurchase authorization ahead of schedule, while continuous improvement programs expand consolidated operating margins past 31.5%.5
Mevcut
Scheduled to enter commercial service at the beginning of fiscal 2028
Neden önemli
Marks the conclusion of peak capital outlays and triggers the step-down in annual capex toward steady-state levels.6
03
Metrik:
Distributor Shipments vs Retail Depletions Spread
MevcutShipments normalized in 1H FY2027 to rebuild distributor safety stocks
Neden önemli
Provides early warning of wholesale inventory unwinds across top customers representing 60% of sales.5,7
04
Metrik:
Execution Pace of Share Repurchase Program
Mevcut$2.5B authorization remains active through FY2028
Neden önemli
Drives per-share earnings accretion as free cash flow expands following brewery completion.5
05
Metrik:
Balance-Sheet Deleveraging and Debt Refinancing Rate
MevcutTotal debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M
Neden önemli
Reduces interest rate sensitivity and protects WACC (6.52%) from macroeconomic credit spread widening.2
Constellation is structurally a high-margin Mexican brewing business. Operating beer margins guided at 34.5%-35.5% far exceed packaged goods peer operating margins (CLX at 12.89%, KMB at 19.00%).
Veracruz Brewery Transitioning from Cash Drain to Cash Engine
Capex declined from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026, with commercial in-service slated for early FY2028.
The conclusion of peak capital spending marks an inflection point where cash conversion accelerates, allowing management to simultaneously reduce leverage and execute buybacks.
Share Repurchase Authorization Drives Net Per-Share Accretion
Management has $2.5B authorized for repurchases through FY2028, while annual stock-based compensation is low at $67.7M.
Share buybacks provide net share count reduction of 0.5% to 1.5% annually, amplifying EPS growth independently of top-line volume.
Target CorporationTGT
Fiyat / gerçeğe uygun değer
Gerçeğe uygun değer$129,82Report-date price$157,45
Değerlendirme tarihi
Ekonomik hendekNarrow
Yatırım puan kartı59 / 100
The Clorox CompanyCLX
Fiyat / gerçeğe uygun değer
Gerçeğe uygun değer$104,8Report-date price$83,1
Değerlendirme tarihi
Ekonomik hendekNarrow
Yatırım puan kartı53 / 100
Marj
STZ
Constellation Brands Inc.
$20.8B
10.0x
2.3x
9.2x
24.0%
—
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$32.3B
13.0x
1.9x
10.9x
104.9%
19.0%
SJM
The J.M. Smucker Company
$12.4B
10.6x
1.4x
8.5x
3.9%
17.9%
TGT
Target Corporation
$68.6B
15.8x
0.6x
9.6x
26.4%
6.0%
CLX
The Clorox Company
$9.9B
13.2x
1.5x
13.8x
163.8%
12.9%
Wholesale Distributor Consolidation
neutral
Wholesale distributor consolidation concentrates route-to-market power among mega-distributors like Reyes Beer Division (27.5% share), creating superior logistics efficiency but elevating customer concentration risk.
