WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $66.0, high $125, with mid-point at $95.3.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-34.2%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$127.83Price
FV $95.27
High $124.7
WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Extremely high switching costs for
Extremely high switching costs for enterprise ERP and HCM systems.
Deeply embedded core workflow integrations
Deeply embedded core workflow integrations across corporate HR.
Bull thesis
Sell-side consensus ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.
Based on our latest analysis, WDAY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $128 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $95.3 (range $66.0–$125), which implies roughly 25.5% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for WDAY is $66.0–$125, with a midpoint of $95.3. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Workday Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for WDAY is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. WDAY is rated Sell at $127.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $95.27, implying -25.47% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Workday Inc. are: HCM Market Saturation; Financials Cross-sell Stagnation; SBC Valuation Reckoning. The single biggest risk is HCM Market Saturation: Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.
Our current rating for WDAY is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($66.0–$125) versus the current price of $128.
Workday Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for WDAY.
