American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

NASDAQ: AAL · USD

$12.6

-0.03 (-0.2%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-15

Our latest published analysis: AAL rated Hold

American Airlines Group Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$13.0 / share

Potential value

$18.3 / share

Upside to FV

+9.9%

from $12.6

Moat

3.5/10

None

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$7.8B
Revenue (ttm)	61B
Net income (ttm)	-481M
EPS (ttm)	-$0.73
Shares out	662.6M
P/E (forward)	5.3x
Volume	63,293,273
Beta	1.38

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 61B
Net income (ttm): -481M
EPS (ttm): -$0.73
P/E (forward): 5.3x
Market cap: $7.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$29.88B	$48.97B	$52.79B	$54.21B	$54.63B	+16.3%
Gross profit	$27.0M	$9.04B	$11.81B	$11.47B	$10.47B	+343.8%
Operating income	$-1.06B	$1.61B	$3.03B	$2.61B	$1.47B	—
Net income	$-1.99B	$127.0M	$822.0M	$846.0M	$111.0M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-3.09	$0.19	$1.21	$1.24	$0.17	—
EBITDA	$1.59B	$4.13B	$5.20B	$5.01B	$3.88B	+25.1%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.10B	$1.82B	$1.80B	$1.81B	$2.00B	+16.1%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	Giữ
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	Bán
APD	Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	68.3B	—	5.4x	8.9%	+5.2%	+23.1%	Giữ
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	Giữ
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	Giữ
AME	AMETEK Inc.	56.9B	36.3x	7.2x	13.2%	+9.8%	+33.6%	Bán

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$12.96

+9.9% from spot

The base case assumes cyclical recovery in operating performance as fleet modernization improves fuel efficiency and premium revenue capture. Revenue reaches $63.35B in FY2026 and $66.68B in FY2027, with diluted EPS rebounding to $1.41 in FY2027. Operating margins expand to 4.5% in FY2027, yielding our intrinsic fair value midpoint of $12.96.

FY2026 revenue of $63.35B and FY2027 revenue of $66.68B.
EBIT margin normalizes steadily from FY2026 through FY2027 and expands further by FY2030.
CapEx tracks guidance of $4.0B in FY2026 and $4.5B in FY2027 before moderating.
Terminal P/E exit multiple of 8.0x applied at WACC of 10.66%.

Bull20%

Price target

$18.29

+55.1% from spot

In the bull case, American successfully scales its premium cabin offerings across new Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR aircraft, while managed corporate travel expands beyond recent 26% growth rates. Concurrently, jet fuel prices soften, allowing the airline to expand operating margins toward 5.8% and accelerate debt paydown, driving multiple re-rating toward legacy peer averages.

Premium cabin revenue outgrows main cabin by 6+ percentage points.
Jet fuel prices moderate toward historical levels, substantially reducing annual fuel expenses.
Operating margins expand above 5.5%, reaching parity with legacy peers.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($12.96). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.3%	1.6%	1.8%	2.1%	2.3%
9.7%	$13.8	$13.9	$14.1	$14.3	$14.6
10.2%	$13.2	$13.3	$13.5	$13.7	$13.9
10.7%	$12.7	$12.8	$13.0	$13.1	$13.3
11.2%	$12.2	$12.3	$12.5	$12.6	$12.7
11.7%	$11.8	$11.9	$12.0	$12.1	$12.2

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E5.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E43.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All AAL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

229

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 229 of 229 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000006201
Company name	American Airlines Group Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	02376R102
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	143,400
Employees change	5,300
Employees growth	3.84%
Enterprise value	$36.8B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1930
Industry	Airlines
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US02376R1023
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-18
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$8.3B
Market cap category	Mid-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-26
Options	Yes
Price	$12.58
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4512
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	AAL
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.aa.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	19.24x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	25.91x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	24.1x
Earnings yield	-5.81%
EV/EBIT	32.73x
EV/EBITDA	10.8x
EV/Sales	0.6x
FCF / EV yield	-0.25%
FCF yield	-1.1%
Forward EV/Sales	0.54x
Forward P/S	0.12x
Industry forward P/E	14.21x
Industry P/E	16.91x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	1.96x
P/OCF ratio	1.93x
P/S ratio	0.14x
Price/EBITDA ratio	2.43x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	1.84%
EBITDA margin	5.58%
Gross margin	20.82%
Operating margin	1.84%
Pretax margin	-0.92%
Profit margin	-0.79%
Profit per employee	$-3,354
Profitable years	4
Revenue per employee	$425,251
ROA	1.1%
ROA (5Y)	1.07%
ROCE	3.03%
ROIC	3.01%
ROIC (5Y)	1.35%
SBC / revenue	0.09%
Tax / revenue	-0.13%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth years	0
Gross profit growth	-1.45%
Gross profit growth (Q)	10.61%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-4.42%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	13.15%
OCF growth 10Y	-3.55%
OCF growth 3Y	-5.12%
Operating income growth	-52.62%
Operating income growth (Q)	-12.57%
Operating income growth 3Y	-38.73%
Revenue growth	12.32%
Revenue growth (Q)	19.31%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-2.39%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.3%
Revenue growth 3Y	4.84%
Revenue growth 5Y	20.02%
Revenue growth quarters	6
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-4.4B
Depreciation and amortization	$2.3B
EBIT	$1.1B
EBITDA	$3.4B
EPS	$-0.73
FCF per share	$-0.14
Financing cash flow	$1.2B
Free cash flow	$-91M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$-148M
Gross profit	$12.7B
Income taxes	$-79M
Investing cash flow	$-5.2B
Net borrowing	$1.6B
Net cash flow	$290M
Net income	$-481M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$4.2B
Operating income	$1.1B
Revenue	$61B
Stock-based compensation	$57M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	0.67
Book value per share	$-6.37
Debt / EBITDA	4.38
Goodwill	$4.1B
Interest coverage	0.67
Long-term assets	$50.3B
Long-term liabilities	$41.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-28.5B
Net cash / market cap	-345.1%
Net debt / EBITDA	8.37
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$39.7B
Shareholders' equity	$-4.2B
Tangible book value	$-10.4B
Tangible book value per share	$-15.67
Total assets	$65B
Total cash	$8.7B
Total debt	$37.2B
Total liabilities	$69.2B
WACC	5.04%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.96
Current assets	$14.7B
Current liabilities	$28B
Current ratio	0.53
Inventory turnover	16.22
Net working capital	$-16.4B
Quick ratio	0.38
Working capital	$-13.3B
Working capital turnover	-4.94

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	8.46%
Dividend growth (3Y)	0%
Dividend per share	$0.00
Dividend yield	0%
Last dividend	$0.10
Shareholder yield	8.46%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	-68.72%
10Y return CAGR	-10.64%
10Y total return	-67.55%
150-day SMA	$13.70
1D price change	-0.24%
1M price change	-9.99%
1M total return	-9.99%
1W price change	3.1%
1W total return	3.1%
1Y price change	-6.9%
1Y return CAGR	-6.9%
1Y total return	-6.9%
20-day SMA	$12.47
200-day SMA	$13.55
3M price change	-16.49%
3M total return	-16.49%
3Y price change	14.33%
3Y return CAGR	4.57%
3Y total return	14.33%
50-day SMA	$12.99
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$18.79
52-week high date	2026-07-02
52-week low	$10.09
52-week low date	2026-03-30
5Y price change	-34.39%
5Y return CAGR	-8.09%
5Y total return	-34.39%
6M price change	6.89%
6M total return	6.89%
All-time high	$59.08
All-time high date	2018-01-16
All-time low	$8.25
All-time low date	2020-05-14
Average true range (ATR)	$0.53
Average volume	60.5M
Beta (1Y)	2.06
Beta (2Y)	1.48
Beta (5Y)	1.38
Change from 52-week high	-33.05%
Change from 52-week low	24.68%
Change from all-time high	-78.87%
Change from all-time low	51.33%
Change from open	1.04%
Day's gap	-1.27%
Dollar volume	$796.2M
High price	$12.66
Low price	$12.45
Monthly RSI	47.39
Open price	$12.45
Position in 52-week range	61.9%
Premarket change	-1.03%
Premarket close	$12.61
Premarket price	$12.48
Premarket volume	366.5K
Previous close	$12.61
Price vs 150-day SMA	-8.85%
Price vs 20-day SMA	0.11%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-7.87%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-3.87%
Relative volume	1.05
RSI	47.62
Sharpe ratio	-0
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.23
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.03
Sortino ratio	0.12
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.47
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.08
Volume	63.3M
Weekly RSI	45.03
YTD price change	-18.56%
YTD total return	-18.56%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	653.6M
Float percentage	98.64%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.01%
Shares change (YoY)	-8.46%
Shares held by insiders	1.27%
Shares held by institutions	78.43%
Shares outstanding	662.6M
Short % of float	15.97%
Short % of shares	15.75%
Short ratio	1.1 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	142

Deeper analysis on AAL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this AAL report

What is the latest published AAL stock rating?

American Airlines Group Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-15. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full AAL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-15, lives at /stocks/AAL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for AAL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-15 gives AAL a fair value of USD 13 and a potential value of USD 18. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the AAL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-15). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldAAL · Fair value $13.0+9.9%

Read full analysis →

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

Our latest published analysis: AAL rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · AAL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All AAL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on AAL

Frequently asked questions

Lịch sử xếp hạng

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	3.0
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	4.5
Competitive Moat	3.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5