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Demand above management’s forecast could convert into more revenue as advanced-node supply improves.
FY2027 consolidated revenue growth falls below 8%.
Sell. At $316.22 on 2026-09-08, the shares stood above $214 Fair value and $255.21 Potential value.3
The main risk is failed demand conversion. FY2027 revenue growth below 8% would weaken sales, profit, cash generation, and estimated value.
The clearest upside is supply normalization. Demand exceeded management’s forecast, so better advanced-node availability could convert deferred shipments into revenue.4
FY2025 free cash flow was $98.77 billion, and diluted shares declined between FY2023 and FY2025. These facts support per-share potential but do not prove future repurchases.56
Customer enthusiasm and demand above management’s forecast indicate recent preference for Apple products. They do not establish indefinite switching costs or protection from disruption.4
The cycle improves if advanced-node availability rises while reported demand remains strong. More available products could convert deferred demand into shipments and revenue without assuming a favorable mix effect.4
Sell because the report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.
Sell because the report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.
The Company designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The Company’s fiscal year is the 52- or 53-week period that ends on the last Saturday of September.
Home includes Apple TV 4K®, the Company’s media streaming and gaming device based on its tvOS® operating system, and HomePod® and HomePod mini®, high-fidelity wireless smart speakers. As of September 27, 2025, the Company had other purchase obligations of $14.8 billion, with $7.0 billion payable within 12 months.
Extending September-quarter shortages into FY2027 is a stress assumption, not an observed condition. Management only described expected September-quarter constraints. FY2027 revenue growth below the 10.18% base anchor, and especially below 8%, would show weak demand conversion. A higher required return or lower mature multiple would then compound the loss in value.
This path lowers sales, profit, and cash while also reducing what investors pay for future earnings. Recovery requires better availability and renewed reported growth.
FY2027 revenue growth below 8% would show that improved availability did not convert demand into enough sales, weakening earnings and cash expectations.
Cost of equity above 10.9282% would reduce the present value of future earnings even if nominal sales and profit remain positive.
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Continued product constraints can prevent some demand from reaching reported shipments and revenue, weakening the near-term demand-conversion thesis that supports the growth case.
Hiện tại:Base anchor: 10.18% YoY
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 8% in FY2027
Management reported customer enthusiasm and demand above its forecast in the June 2026 quarter. That supports recent brand preference, but it does not establish durable retention, pricing power, switching costs or repeat purchases.
Durability would strengthen if demand remains strong after availability improves. It would weaken if supply normalizes but FY2027 sales conversion disappoints, because the dated evidence does not establish demand beyond the visible forecast period.
FY2025 operating income was $133.05 billion and free cash flow was $98.77 billion. These are financial outcomes showing strong monetization in that period, not evidence of durable retention or pricing power.56
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($214.00). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $107.9B after modeled capex of $12.7B, with terminal value at 59.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base path assumes near-term demand converts, followed by slower mature growth. Sustained stronger growth or a material undershoot would disconfirm that path.
A beat would show stronger sales and per-share profit than the dated forecasts, but it would not establish growth beyond FY2027.
Results within both FY2027 ranges would support the near-term sales and per-share profit path without establishing longer-term growth.
Supply constraints could contribute, but a miss would only establish that FY2027 revenue or diluted EPS fell below its cited analyst forecast range.
FY2025 operating cash was close to reported profit, but stock compensation remains a real cost to shareholders.6
FY2025 operating cash flow was $111.48 billion, capex was $12.72 billion, and free cash flow was $98.77 billion. This provides substantial financial capacity without proving how future cash will be allocated.56
Diluted average shares fell from 15.812547 billion in FY2023 to 15.004697 billion in FY2025. Future share reduction remains an assumption and must be tested against free cash flow and $12.86 billion of FY2025 stock compensation.
FY2025 operating income and cash generation were substantial, but those outcomes do not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital trend.
WACC was 8.8463% on 2026-09-09; no ROIC comparison is presented here.
FY2027 forecasts span $497.89-$594.86 billion of revenue and $8.69-$10.67 of diluted EPS.
The FY2027 revenue and diluted-EPS ranges leave room for outcomes on either side of their central forecasts.
| Doanh thu | 416.161.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 220.960.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 195.201.000.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 62.151.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 133.050.000.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -21.040.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 112.010.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 359.241.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 35.934.000.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 147.957.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 285.508.000.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 165.631.000.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 73.733.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 112.010.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 136.571.000.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 11.698.000.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 12.863.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 111.482.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động | 25.089.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 156.620.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 29.943.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền vào từ đầu tư | 15.195.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 120.686.000.000 US$ |
| Mua lại cổ phiếu | 90.711.000.000 US$ |
| Cổ tức đã trả | 15.421.000.000 US$ |
| Hoàn trả nợ ròng | 8.483.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động tài chính khác | 6.071.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 35.934.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | 15.195.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -120.686.000.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-10-31 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 178,4 T US$ | 42,9% | 6,8% |
| Europe | 111 T US$ | 26,7% | 9,6% |
| Greater China | 64,4 T US$ | 15,5% | -3,8% |
| Rest Of Asia Pacific | 33,7 T US$ | 8,1% | 9,9% |
| Japan | 28,7 T US$ | 6,9% | 14,6% |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-10-31 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo khu vực | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 200 T US$ | 48,1% | 10% |
| United States | 151,8 T US$ | 36,5% | 6,7% |
| China | 64,4 T US$ | 15,5% | -3,8% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-09.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-09-24 | 215,6 T US$ | 73,3 T US$ | 45,7 T US$ | 66,2 T US$ | 53,5 T US$ | 12,7 T US$ | 10,5 T US$ | 4,2 T US$ | 29,7 T US$ | 12 T US$ | — | -46 T US$ | -20,9 T US$ | — | 20,5 T US$ | 67,2 T US$ | 87 T US$ | 27,8% | — | 5,5% | — |
| 2017-09-30 | 229,2 T US$ | 76,6 T US$ | 48,4 T US$ | 64,2 T US$ | 51,8 T US$ | 12,5 T US$ | 10,2 T US$ | 4,8 T US$ | 32,9 T US$ | 12,6 T US$ | — | -46,4 T US$ | -18 T US$ | 20,5 T US$ | 20,3 T US$ | 74,2 T US$ | 115,7 T US$ | 26,8% | — | 6,3% | — |
| 2018-09-29 | 265,6 T US$ | 87 T US$ | 59,5 T US$ | 77,4 T US$ | 64,1 T US$ | 13,3 T US$ | 10,9 T US$ | 5,3 T US$ | 72,7 T US$ | 13,7 T US$ | — | 16,1 T US$ | -87,9 T US$ | 20,3 T US$ | 25,9 T US$ | 66,3 T US$ | 114,5 T US$ | 26,7% | — | 7,3% | — |
| 2019-09-28 | 260,2 T US$ | 81,9 T US$ | 55,3 T US$ | 69,4 T US$ | 58,9 T US$ | 10,5 T US$ | 12,5 T US$ | 6,1 T US$ | 66,9 T US$ | 14,1 T US$ | — | 45,9 T US$ | -91 T US$ | 25,9 T US$ | 50,2 T US$ | 100,6 T US$ | 108 T US$ | 24,6% | — | 6,8% | — |
| 2020-09-26 | 274,5 T US$ | 81 T US$ | 57,4 T US$ | 80,7 T US$ | 73,4 T US$ | 7,3 T US$ | 11,1 T US$ | 6,8 T US$ | 72,4 T US$ | 14,1 T US$ | — | -4,3 T US$ | -86,8 T US$ | 50,2 T US$ | 39,8 T US$ | 90,9 T US$ | 112,4 T US$ | 24,1% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2021-09-25 | 365,8 T US$ | 123,1 T US$ | 94,7 T US$ | 104 T US$ | 93 T US$ | 11,1 T US$ | 11,3 T US$ | 7,9 T US$ | 86 T US$ | 14,5 T US$ | — | -14,5 T US$ | -93,4 T US$ | 39,8 T US$ | 35,9 T US$ | 62,6 T US$ | 124,7 T US$ | 29,8% | — | 5,7% | — |
| 2022-09-24 | 394,3 T US$ | 130,5 T US$ | 99,8 T US$ | 122,2 T US$ | 111,4 T US$ | 10,7 T US$ | 11,1 T US$ | 9 T US$ | 89,4 T US$ | 14,8 T US$ | -123 Tr US$ | -22,4 T US$ | -110,7 T US$ | 35,9 T US$ | 25 T US$ | 48,3 T US$ | 110,1 T US$ | 30,3% | — | 8,0% | — |
| 2023-09-30 | 383,3 T US$ | 125,8 T US$ | 97 T US$ | 110,5 T US$ | 99,6 T US$ | 11 T US$ | 11,5 T US$ | 10,8 T US$ | 77,6 T US$ | 15 T US$ | -9,9 T US$ | 3,7 T US$ | -108,5 T US$ | 25 T US$ | 30,7 T US$ | 61,6 T US$ | 105,1 T US$ | 29,8% | — | 9,2% | — |
| 2024-09-28 | 391 T US$ | 134,7 T US$ | 93,7 T US$ | 118,3 T US$ | 108,8 T US$ | 9,4 T US$ | 11,4 T US$ | 11,7 T US$ | 94,9 T US$ | 15,2 T US$ | -6 T US$ | 2,9 T US$ | -122 T US$ | 30,7 T US$ | 29,9 T US$ | 65,2 T US$ | 96,7 T US$ | 31,5% | — | 7,9% | — |
| 2025-09-27 | 416,2 T US$ | 144,4 T US$ | 112 T US$ | 111,5 T US$ | 98,8 T US$ | 12,7 T US$ | 11,7 T US$ | 12,9 T US$ | 90,7 T US$ | 15,4 T US$ | -8,5 T US$ | 15,2 T US$ | -120,7 T US$ | 29,9 T US$ | 35,9 T US$ | 54,7 T US$ | 90,7 T US$ | 32,0% | — | 8,8% | — |
Apple Inc. (AAPL) trades at 33.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 27.9x compares with a peer median of 26.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Microsoft Corporation, Broadcom Inc., Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., as of 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-09.
Industry benchmarks as of 2026-09-01 show capex at 0.44x depreciation and capex-to-revenue of -3.8%. The negative sign records cash spending as an outflow, not negative economic investment.
The cycle improves if advanced-node availability rises while reported demand remains strong. More available products could convert deferred demand into shipments and revenue without assuming a favorable mix effect.
The cycle weakens if shortages persist across iPhone, Mac, and iPad. Limited availability would defer sales and reduce operating profit and cash relative to the forecast path.
Apple enters this demand-led cycle with strong product interest but limited supply flexibility. That combination supports sales potential while increasing execution risk.4
The report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value, supporting no position under the Sell rating.3
Keep exposure at zero unless a later valuation supports a non-Sell rating and the FY2027 revenue-growth trigger remains intact.
The report-date price is above both Fair value and Potential value.3
Sell or reduce to no position because the valuation gap outweighs near-term demand strength.4
The long-run path remains sensitive to growth after FY2027 and what investors pay for mature earnings.1
Sell because $316.22 stands above $214 Fair value and $255.21 Potential value.3
Strong demand and cash generation remain visible, but they do not offset the valuation gap or establish the post-FY2027 growth duration.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A terminal P/E below 18.6x would mean investors pay less for each dollar of mature earnings, reducing long-duration equity value.
A higher required return reduces the present value of future earnings even if nominal sales and profit continue to grow.
Hiện tại:8.9282% on 2026-09-09
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 10.9282% within 12 months
If investors pay less for each dollar of mature earnings, the value assigned today to future earnings falls. That would weaken the case that near-term growth deserves a lasting premium.
Hiện tại:House assumption: 23.25x
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 18.6x within five years
Without a falling share base, earnings per share lose an important assumption-based support. Future repurchases must be tested against available free cash flow and stock compensation before assuming continued share reduction.
Hiện tại:14.59418 billion on 2026-09-09
Cảnh báo nếuStops declining, or buybacks exceed 120% of FCF for two fiscal years
Weakness in Americas would reduce consolidated sales. Europe and Other are material revenue pools, but their dated revenue levels do not establish that they would offset an Americas shortfall.
Hiện tại:42.86% of FY2025 revenue
Cảnh báo nếuDeclines YoY for two consecutive fiscal years
| medium |
| After FY2027 |
| Sustained annual growth would justify reassessing the assumed fade.1 |
Limitation: Terminal value is 61.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 80,32 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 130 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 211 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 60.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
This scenario requires improved availability to convert demand into revenue and continued share reduction to support earnings per share. It fails if FY2027 revenue growth falls below 8%, or if diluted shares stop falling.46
Improvement should release constrained shipments.4
Memory costs can reduce profit from each sales dollar.4
A lower share count raises earnings per share for unchanged profit.6
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $477.71B | $526.34B | $568.45B | $608.24B | $644.74B | $676.97B | $707.44B | $735.73B | $761.48B | $784.33B |
| Operating income | $148.09B | $163.17B | $176.22B | $188.55B | $199.87B | $209.86B | $219.31B | $228.08B | $236.06B | $243.14B |
| NOPAT | $121.18B | $133.52B | $144.20B | $154.29B | $163.55B | $171.73B | $179.46B | $186.64B | $193.17B | $198.96B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $121.18B | $133.52B | $144.20B | $154.29B | $163.55B | $171.73B | $179.46B | $186.64B | $193.17B | $198.96B |
| Revenue growth | 14.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
One weighted earnings valuation derives 61.9% of value from the terminal period.
The valuation is therefore sensitive to post-FY2027 growth and mature valuation assumptions.
The supplied peer data show wide differences in revenue growth, operating margins and forward P/E across the comparison companies.
Because those economics differ, peer multiples can identify valuation outliers but should not set Apple’s Fair value.
| Biên |
|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $4.67T | 33.6x | 9.9x | 27.9x | 148.8% | — |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 21.0x | 11.1x | 19.4x | 34.0% | 45.1% | |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | 19.0x | 19.7x | 34.4x | 44.2% | 54.3% | |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc. | 6.6x | 12.7x | 16.5x | 66.6% | 80.4% | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 32.6x | 20.0x | 80.6x | 10.2% | 17.2% |
| If diluted average shares are flat or higher than the prior fiscal year, remove expected per-share support and retain no position.6 |
