Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
AMP — frequently asked questions
Is Ameriprise Financial, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-02, AMP looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 491 USD versus our fair value of 609 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 830 USD. That implies roughly 24.1% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02, gives AMP a fair value of 609 USD and a potential value of 830 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy AMP now?
Our latest published rating for AMP, analyzed 2026-10-02, is Buy. Ameriprise Financial, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 491 USD versus fair value of 609 USD; potential value is 830 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for AMP?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-02 documents Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is AMP's rating?
Our latest published rating for AMP, analyzed 2026-10-02, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 609 USD, the potential value of 830 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (491 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$490.91
Giá trị hợp lý
$609.31
Giá trị tiềm năng
$829.98
Tính đến
2026-10-02
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The biggest opportunity lies in accelerated net new asset gathering and advisor productivity gains driven by institutional bank partnerships and proprietary technology rollout.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
A combined equity market contraction of 20% or more and a 100 bps decline in policy interest rates compressing bank sweep deposit spreads.
We rate Ameriprise Financial Buy, offering 24.12% upside from the October 2, 2026 price of $490.91 to our Fair value of $609.31 per share, supported by strong wealth management fees and capital-light cash generation.4
Ameriprise Financial is rated Buy. For an ordinary investor, this rating means the stock is attractively priced relative to its long-term cash generation and earnings durability, offering favorable risk-adjusted return potential over a multi-year holding period.
On October 2, 2026, Ameriprise shares traded at $490.91. That price sits at a 19.43% discount to our Fair value of $609.31 per share, representing 24.12% implied upside. In an expansion scenario where advisor productivity accelerates and asset gathering exceeds targets, Potential value reaches $829.98 per share, or 69.07% above the report-date price.
The primary risk that would challenge this view is a severe equity market downturn paired with declining cash sweep yields. Lower asset valuations and falling policy interest rates reduce management fees and bank net interest spread in Advice and Wealth Management. Because branch and advisor network expenses are largely fixed, this revenue drop would compress consolidated operating margins below 22.5% compared to 25.54% in FY2025. Investors would observe this risk unfolding through consecutive quarters of negative organic asset flows and shrinking wealth management operating margins.2,4,5,7
The primary engine supporting the investment case is Ameriprise's capital-light wealth management distribution. Advice and Wealth Management generates over half of total revenue ($10.17 billion of $18.91 billion in FY2025). Upcoming onboarding of 260 advisors and $28 billion in client assets from the Huntington partnership in the fourth quarter of 2026 more than offsets the departure of $19 billion in Comerica assets. Because physical capital expenditures require less than 1% of revenue ($162 million in FY2025), the company converts operating cash flow ($8.32 billion) into $8.16 billion of free cash flow. Management directs 85% to 90% of operating earnings back to shareholders, repurchasing $2.91 billion of stock in FY2025, steadily reducing share count and driving double-digit growth in diluted earnings per share toward $51.67 in FY2027.1,5,6,7,8
Dominant Advice-Led Wealth Franchise
Advice and Wealth Management accounts for $10.17 billion (53.8%) of consolidated revenue. Direct control over retail advisor distribution insulates fees from passive pricing pressure and delivers stable operating margins above 25%.4,7,8
Annual capital expenditure was just $162 million in FY2025, or 0.86% of revenue. This capital-light structure converted $8.32 billion of operating cash flow into $8.16 billion of free cash flow, leaving over 90% of cash available for distribution.6,7
Massive Capital Return and Share Contraction
Ameriprise maintains $2.1 billion in excess capital and returned 91% of operating earnings in Q2 2026. FY2025 share repurchases of $2.91B dwarfed stock compensation of $206M, steadily reducing diluted shares and driving forward EPS toward $51.67 in FY2027.1,5,7
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Ameriprise Financial Buy because its high-retention wealth management franchise and minimal capital requirements generate robust free cash flow, funding massive share buybacks that drive double-digit earnings growth.
Tổng quan công ty
Ameriprise Financial is a diversified financial services company with a more than 130-year history of providing financial solutions. AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. is a long-standing leader in financial planning and advice with $1.7 trillion in assets under management, administration, and advisement as of December 31, 2025. AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. offers a broad range of products and services designed to achieve individual and institutional clients’ financial objectives. Its company has provided solutions to help clients confidently achieve their financial objectives for more than 130 years. Its earliest predecessor company, Investors Syndicate, was founded in 1894 to provide face-amount certificates to consumers.
In 1983, its company was formed as a Delaware corporation in connection with American Express’ acquisition of IDS Financial Services from Alleghany Corporation. The financial results from the businesses underlying its go-to-market approaches are reflected in its operating segments: Its Corporate & Other segment includes its closed blocks of LTC insurance and fixed annuity and fixed indexed annuity (“FA”) business.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under a macroeconomic stress test combining a 20% equity market correction and a 100 bps reduction in cash sweep deposit spreads, fee-based wrap accounts in Advice & Wealth Management ($10,170M FY2025 revenue) and asset management fees at Columbia Threadneedle ($3,541M revenue) contract simultaneously. Coupled with the departure of $19B in Comerica client assets and advisor recruiting retention pressures requiring elevated cash bonuses, consolidated operating margins compress from 25.54% toward 22.5%, driving downside valuation toward $410.24.
In the Bear case, equity market contraction reduces fee-earning client assets under management across Advice and Wealth Management and Columbia Threadneedle. Simultaneously, policy interest rate cuts compress bank cash sweep yields, while competitive bidding wars for financial advisor talent increase recruitment and transition costs, compressing consolidated operating margins and constraining capital available for share buybacks.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe equity market downturn and cash sweep repricing compresses wealth management fee margins.
In FY2025, operating income of $4,830M on $18,911M revenue yielded a 25.54% operating margin, with Advice & Wealth Management contributing $10,170M (53.8%). Bank net interest spread contributes substantially to AWM margins. If equity markets contract 20% and deposit sweep spreads fall by 100 bps following policy rate cuts, fixed advisor and branch network overhead compresses consolidated operating margin below 22.5%.4,5,7,8
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
01
Advice and Wealth Management revenue share of consolidated revenue
Severe market share loss or client asset outflows in the core advisory franchise eroding the primary earnings engine.
Ameriprise Financial's competitive moat is evaluated as Narrow, underpinned by strong switching costs in Advice & Wealth Management and proprietary retail distribution across roughly 10,000 advisors. In FY2025, Advice & Wealth Management generated $10,170M, or 53.8% of consolidated revenue of $18,911M. Retail wealth management clients face significant logistical, operational, and tax-planning frictions when contemplating switching providers, resulting in high asset retention and recurring wrap account fees that persist across broader financial market cycles.
While pure-play asset management peers such as BlackRock (operating margin 35.08%) dominate institutional passive indexing, Ameriprise captures value directly through advice delivery, financial planning, and discretionary account management. This structural insulation allows Ameriprise to maintain an operating margin of 25.54% and deliver an extraordinary return on equity of 63.43%, easily surpassing its 9.37% cost of equity. Capital intensity remains negligible, with capex absorbing just $162M in FY2025.
Nonetheless, the moat cannot be classified as Wide due to competitive pressures in institutional asset management ($3,541M revenue in FY2025) and the constant risk of advisor attrition. Competitor recruiting packages offering cash payouts with payback periods as long as eight years require Ameriprise to continually reinvest in advisor technology and maintain competitive payout structures to preserve its advisory network.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Ameriprise generates substantial economic profit, with returns on capital far exceeding its computed cost of capital. The firm's return on equity of 63.43% and estimated ROIC of 33.08% substantially outstrip its moderate cost of equity of 9.37% and computed WACC of 8.94%. This wide spread between economic return and hurdle rates reflects an asset-light operating model requiring only $162M in annual capital expenditures against $4,830M of operating income.2,4,7
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Advice & Wealth Management clients maintain multi-product advisory relationships including wrap accounts, banking cash sweeps, certificates, and retirement planning. Transferring full household financial architecture and tax structures entails high administrative friction, resulting in robust asset retention despite institutional volatility.Wide
02Distribution Network and Intangible Brand — Ameriprise operates an extensive nationwide network of approximately 10,000 advisors, providing captive retail distribution that shields fee-based wrap pricing and allows direct placement of proprietary Columbia Threadneedle SMAs and ETFs.Moderate
03Capital-Light Scalability —
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Regulatory scrutiny and fee compression on cash sweep deposits
medium
12-18 months
Ameriprise maintains diversified cash sweep options, advisory lending solutions, and proactive interest rate management across its banking architecture.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($609.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.9B after modeled reinvestment of $207.7M, with terminal value at 79.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Advice and Wealth Management organic client asset gathering expands at a steady single-digit pace
Bank cash sweep yields stabilize alongside moderate macroeconomic policy adjustments
Consolidated operating margins remain consistent with historical performance
Capital return targets continue to retire net shares outstanding each year
Physical capital expenditures remain minimal relative to operating cash generation
In the Base case, the shares target $609.31, delivering an implied return of 24.1% at an assigned probability of 60.0%. Ameriprise sustains mid-single-digit organic revenue expansion in Advice and Wealth Management, where recurring advisory fees and client asset retention offset predictable institutional departures. Consolidated operating margins hold steady as technology-enabled advisor efficiency balances compliance and platform investments, while disciplined cash deployment retires shares annually to drive steady diluted earnings per share growth.
Upgrade the rating; Consider expanding position allocation upon confirmed organic asset growth checkpoints while monitoring whether cash sweep spread yields expand or stabilize.
Kích hoạt: Consolidated quarterly revenue and diluted earnings per share exceed consensus estimates, driven by organic asset inflows in Advice and Wealth Management and stable deposit sweep yields.
A decisive earnings beat driven by organic net asset inflows confirms that advisor productivity tools and platform additions are successfully outpacing institutional attrition, accelerating the path toward $829.98.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Buy; Maintain core allocation, re-examining quarterly advisor retention metrics and net interest margin trajectory across bank sweep deposits.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly results meet consensus expectations, with Advice and Wealth Management fee growth offset by predictable client asset transitions and steady operating margins.
Meeting consensus expectations validates the baseline trajectory toward $609.31, confirming that ongoing capital deployment via share buybacks continues to support per-share earnings growth.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental capital deployment, re-evaluating advisor retention stability and whether management can defend operating profitability without sacrificing investment.
Kích hoạt: Diluted earnings per share fall below consensus expectations due to sharp contraction in sweep fee margins, elevated advisor recruiting payouts, or accelerated institutional asset outflows.
A quarterly earnings miss caused by structural sweep spread compression or advisor attrition would erode franchise operating leverage and weaken the path to $609.31.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Ameriprise maintains high earnings quality characterized by substantial free cash flow conversion and transparent fee-based revenue streams. Operating cash generation consistently covers reported net income, driven by capital-light wealth advisory operations with minimal physical reinvestment requirements. Balance sheet liquidity remains robust, and operating earnings are free from distortive working capital swings or aggressive accounting deferrals.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Advice and Wealth Management Organic Net Flows
Hiện tạiUnderlying organic client asset gathering remains positive, with incoming institutional partner assets scheduled to offset prior offboarding.
Cash generation is a core franchise strength. Ameriprise generated $8,323M in GAAP operating cash flow in FY2025 and $8,161M in free cash flow, against capital expenditures of only $162M. This cash conversion reflects an advice and fee-based revenue architecture that requires minimal physical reinvestment, providing ample liquidity to sustain buybacks through market cycles.6,7
Phân bổ vốn
Management maintains a disciplined and shareholder-friendly capital return policy, targeting 85% to 90% of operating earnings returned via dividends and programmatic share repurchases. In FY2025, Ameriprise deployed $2,907M to share buybacks, which dwarfs stock-based compensation of $206M and drove diluted average share count down to 98.2M shares. Capital health is supported by $2.1B in excess capital and $2.8B in holding company available liquidity as of Q2 2026.
Ameriprise demonstrates exceptional returns on capital driven by the expansion of its capital-light Advice & Wealth Management division, which generated $10,170M of consolidated revenue in FY2025. With ROE at 63.43% and ROIC at 33.08%, returns on invested capital are projected to remain structurally elevated as annual capital expenditures ($162M in FY2025) remain below 1% of total revenue.
The firm's estimated ROIC of 33.08% provides an expansive 2,414 basis point spread over its computed WACC of 8.94% and a 2,371 basis point spread over its cost of equity of 9.37%, demonstrating robust economic value creation.
Advice & Wealth Management generated $10,170M (53.8%) of $18,911M total revenue in FY2025, supporting of $4,830M and a 25.54% .
Doanh thu mới nhất18,9 T US$CAGR doanh thu +5,3%
Biên hoạt động25,5%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất8,2 T US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng58,9 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu18,9 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−9,4 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp9,5 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−4,7 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động4,8 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1,3 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng3,6 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
18.911.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
9.383.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
9.528.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
4.698.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.830.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.267.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
3.563.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản190,9 T US$Tiền mặt11,2 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn82,2 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả184,4 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn3,2 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu6,5 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
190.904.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
11.158.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
82.216.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
184.355.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
3.182.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
6.549.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng3,6 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+151 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+206 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+4,4 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động8,3 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ9,5 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+8,3 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−1,5 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính−5,2 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+31 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ11,2 T US$
8,3 T US$ − 162 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 8,2 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
3.563.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
8.323.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
151.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
206.000.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
4.403.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
8.323.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
17.843.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
9.489.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
31.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
1.528.000.000 US$
Capex
162.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
1.366.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
5.157.000.000 US$
Phát hành nợ ròng
429.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
2.907.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
596.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
2.083.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
11.158.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-1.528.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-5.157.000.000 US$
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-02.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
11,8 T US$
2,1 T US$
1,3 T US$
2,3 T US$
2,2 T US$
92 Tr US$
248 Tr US$
134 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
479 Tr US$
—
-783 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
—
5,5 T US$
33 T US$
5,4 T US$
16,0%
—
6,4%
—
2017-12-31
12,2 T US$
2,7 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,4 T US$
162 Tr US$
234 Tr US$
121 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
491 Tr US$
—
-171 Tr US$
-1,8 T US$
5,5 T US$
5,1 T US$
36,1 T US$
5,3 T US$
20,9%
—
6,6%
—
2018-12-31
12,9 T US$
2,9 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,6 T US$
2,4 T US$
162 Tr US$
198 Tr US$
144 Tr US$
1,6 T US$
506 Tr US$
—
-587 Tr US$
-1,3 T US$
5,1 T US$
5,9 T US$
36,9 T US$
4,8 T US$
21,7%
—
6,7%
—
2019-12-31
13,1 T US$
2,6 T US$
1,9 T US$
2,3 T US$
2,2 T US$
143 Tr US$
147 Tr US$
135 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
504 Tr US$
—
-3,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
5,9 T US$
6,2 T US$
39,3 T US$
4,9 T US$
18,0%
—
6,4%
—
2020-12-31
12 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,5 T US$
4,6 T US$
4,5 T US$
147 Tr US$
153 Tr US$
146 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
497 Tr US$
—
-2,9 T US$
952 Tr US$
6,2 T US$
8,9 T US$
45,2 T US$
4,9 T US$
15,3%
—
5,8%
—
2021-12-31
13,4 T US$
4,5 T US$
3,4 T US$
3,3 T US$
3,2 T US$
120 Tr US$
144 Tr US$
152 Tr US$
2 T US$
511 Tr US$
—
-4,4 T US$
1,7 T US$
8,9 T US$
9,6 T US$
41,6 T US$
5,2 T US$
31,3%
—
6,3%
—
2022-12-31
14,3 T US$
4,1 T US$
3,1 T US$
4,4 T US$
4,2 T US$
182 Tr US$
142 Tr US$
170 Tr US$
2 T US$
534 Tr US$
322 Tr US$
-13,6 T US$
8,4 T US$
9,6 T US$
8,8 T US$
49,6 T US$
5,4 T US$
27,4%
—
8,3%
—
2023-12-31
16,1 T US$
3,4 T US$
2,6 T US$
4,7 T US$
4,5 T US$
184 Tr US$
151 Tr US$
187 Tr US$
2,1 T US$
550 Tr US$
300 Tr US$
-9,3 T US$
4,4 T US$
8,8 T US$
8,6 T US$
60,2 T US$
5,8 T US$
20,1%
—
8,2%
—
2024-12-31
17,9 T US$
4,4 T US$
3,4 T US$
6,6 T US$
6,4 T US$
176 Tr US$
142 Tr US$
193 Tr US$
2,4 T US$
574 Tr US$
-292 Tr US$
-551 Tr US$
-5,2 T US$
8,6 T US$
9,5 T US$
61,6 T US$
5,5 T US$
23,8%
—
9,1%
—
2025-12-31
18,9 T US$
5 T US$
3,6 T US$
8,3 T US$
8,2 T US$
162 Tr US$
151 Tr US$
206 Tr US$
2,9 T US$
596 Tr US$
429 Tr US$
-1,5 T US$
-5,2 T US$
9,5 T US$
11,2 T US$
64,7 T US$
5,9 T US$
25,5%
—
7,9%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý609,31 US$Report-date price490,91 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư72 / 100
State Street CorporationSTT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý174,77 US$Report-date price176,34 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
Blackstone Inc.BX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý99,65 US$Report-date price117,21 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý609,31 US$Report-date price490,91 US$
Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP) trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: State Street Corporation, Blackstone Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., as of 2026-10-02.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
The financial sector benchmark exhibits an average capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.0%, whereas Ameriprise operates with an exceptionally low capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.86% ($162M capex on $18,911M revenue in FY2025), declining from $184M in FY2023 and $176M in FY2024.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
A synchronized equity market advance expands client billable assets under management, driving fee-based wrap revenue and operating margins toward 26.5%, while incoming institutional assets (such as $28B from Huntington) re-accelerate top-line revenue toward $21.20B by FY2027.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
An equity market downturn combined with Federal Reserve policy rate cuts reduces wrap fee realizations and compresses bank deposit sweep net interest margins, while institutional client departures ($19B Comerica outflows) compress operating margins toward 22.5%.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Aging population and expanding demand for holistic retirement wealth planning
positive
Mass-affluent and high-net-worth retirees require comprehensive wealth decumulation, estate, and tax planning strategies, driving secular demand for Ameriprise's 10,000 dedicated advisors.
Passive indexing and fee compression across active asset management
negative
Structural investor shift toward low-cost index funds and ETFs exerts downward fee pressure on Columbia Threadneedle ($3,541M FY2025 revenue), necessitating product pivots into SMAs and specialized fixed income.
Định vị
Ameriprise is strategically positioned as a premier advice-led wealth manager, generating 53.8% of its revenue from Advice & Wealth Management ($10,170M in FY2025), which shields consolidated profitability against institutional fee pressures that challenge pure asset managers like BlackRock or balance sheet volatility at life insurers like Prudential.3,8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
4-6%
Ameriprise commands a premier capital-light wealth management franchise with durable recurring advisory fees, a wide ROIC spread over cost of capital, and consistent share count reduction. A 4-6% allocation reflects high conviction in the business model balanced against broader equity market sensitivity and sweep deposit spread cyclicality.
Rủi ro
Risk is controlled through strict position sizing limits (maximum 6% portfolio weight), ongoing monitoring of Federal Reserve interest rate policy impacts on bank sweep net interest income, and continuous tracking of quarterly organic net client asset flows. If institutional offboarding accelerates without offsetting partner onboarding, position exposure will be dynamically adjusted.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$480 - $495
Establish core initial tranche
Initiate position around current trading levels representing an attractive forward P/E multiple below 10x and a nearly 20% discount to fair value.
$450 - $465
Opportunistic addition
Add to the position if market-wide volatility creates an expanded margin of safety, aligning with management's historical opportunistic share repurchase levels.
Re-underwrite the core wealth thesis to evaluate whether client asset attrition or sweep margin compression is structural, trimming position by one-third.
Ameriprise trades at a forward P/E of 9.76x, a noticeable discount to peer wealth and asset managers such as BlackRock (16.48x) and State Street (11.41x). With over 53% of revenue in wealth management and free cash flow of $8.16B, fundamental valuation metrics offer compelling margin of safety relative to Fair value of $609.31.3,4,6,8
Total Return and Capital Allocation
Buy
Ameriprise targets returning 85% to 90% of operating earnings through dividends and opportunistic buybacks. In FY2025, $2.91B in repurchases contracted shares significantly, while $2.1B in excess capital and $2.8B in holding company liquidity secure durable shareholder capital distributions across market cycles.5,7
Risk-Sensitive Macro Perspective
Hold
Investors with elevated concern over near-term market volatility or policy rate cuts may hold current positions or phase entry gradually. While cash sweep spread compression and potential equity drawdowns could temporarily pressure operating margins toward 22.5%, Ameriprise's capital strength and incoming Huntington assets ($28B) provide strong downside protection well above bear levels.5
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
We recommend a Buy rating on Ameriprise Financial at $490.91 as of October 2, 2026. The shares trade at an attractive 19.43% discount to our Fair value of $609.31 per share (24.12% implied upside) and offer Potential value up to $829.98.4
Ameriprise's advice-driven business model generates high returns on equity with minimal capital intensity ($162M capex in FY2025), enabling over $8.1B in free cash flow and consistent 85% to 90% payout of operating earnings via buybacks and dividends. Upcoming Huntington asset inflows ($28B) offset Comerica exits ($19B), anchoring steady EPS growth toward $51.67 in FY2027.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Prolonged organic asset stagnation from institutional client losses and passive fee migration.
The base forecast assumes revenue expands from $18,911M in FY2025 to $21,197M in FY2027, reflecting ~5.7-6.0% annual growth. However, the loss of $19B in assets from Comerica and ongoing passive shift to lower-fee ETFs in Columbia Threadneedle ($3,541M revenue) could drag revenue growth down by 5 percentage points, stalling 5-year CAGR below 1.5%.1,5,7,8
FV impact
-1.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Multiple derating driven by regulatory cash sweep intervention and peer re-benchmarking.
The base valuation assumes the terminal P/E multiple expands from current forward P/E of 9.76x to 10.50x toward the peer median of 13.19x. If regulatory sweep fee crackdowns and life insurance balance-sheet risks compress investor sentiment toward insurance-peer multiples like PRU (7.58x forward P/E), the terminal multiple falls 20% below 10.5x to 8.4x.3,4
Minimal physical capex needs of $162M (0.86% of revenue) in FY2025 enable Ameriprise to scale client assets without balance sheet dilution, returning 85-90% of operating earnings to shareholders.
Moderate
Passive indexing migration eroding active asset management fees
medium
2-3 years
Columbia Threadneedle is accelerating product development into ETFs, separately managed accounts (SMAs), and institutional fixed income solutions to offset active equity outflows.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (194 US$) plus discounted terminal value (735 US$) minus signed per current share (-666,14 US$) equals the 1.595 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Resilient cash sweep spreads and expanding wealth management lending balances
Rapid share retirement funded by strong free cash flow and excess capital deployment
Stabilization of asset management fees through separately managed accounts and exchange-traded products
In the Bull case, reaching $829.98 with an implied return of 69.1% at an estimated probability of 20.0%, net client asset inflows re-accelerate across Advice and Wealth Management as newly integrated advisor partnerships exceed outflow offsets. Operating margins expand through operating leverage and productivity gains from artificial intelligence tools across the advisor network, while aggressive share repurchases deploy excess capital to compound per-share earnings.
Determines net interest margin earned on uninvested client cash, directly influencing wealth management operating profit and per-share cash earnings.
Hiện tạiOperating profitability holds slightly above peer averages, supported by wealth management scale and advisor productivity technology.
Vì sao quan trọng
Measures firmwide operating efficiency and expense control against fixed overhead, dictating how effectively incremental revenue converts into operating profit.
Capex declined from $184M in FY2023 to $176M in FY2024 and $162M in FY2025, representing just 0.86% of revenue.
Negligible physical capital demands allow virtually all operating cash flow to be returned directly to equity holders through buybacks and dividends.
Significant Valuation Discount to Institutional and Wealth Peers
Ameriprise trades at a forward P/E of 9.76x, substantially below BlackRock at 16.48x, Blackstone at 14.97x, and State Street at 11.41x.
Market pricing excessively penalizes Ameriprise for its legacy protection segment while under-valuing its premier wealth management franchise.
BlackRock, Inc.BLK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý670,43 US$Report-date price1.084,83 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư65 / 100
Biên
AMP
Ameriprise Financial Inc.
$43.4B
9.8x
2.2x
63.4%
—
STT
State Street Corporation
$48.3B
11.4x
3.2x
12.4%
34.3%
BX
Blackstone Inc.
$133.6B
15.0x
8.6x
31.4%
54.4%
BLK
BlackRock Inc.
$172.2B
16.5x
6.3x
15.6x
12.3%
35.1%
PRU
Prudential Financial Inc.
$38.8B
7.6x
0.6x
11.4x
12.0%
7.5%
Digital and AI enablement of financial advisor productivity
positive
Deployment of AI meeting summarization and automated administrative workflows improves advisor capacity and client engagement, supporting long-term operating margin expansion.
Exceeds $250M annualized
Examine management commentary on IT capital spending and free cash flow conversion, lowering terminal buyback assumptions.
