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BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-05-09Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
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Giá
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$126
$126–$179
Khuyến nghị
Giữ
confidence 78/100
Tiềm năng tăng
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Khoản mụcT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Kỳ2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Doanh thu$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Lợi nhuận gộp
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
EPS (pha loãng)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA
R&D
SG&A$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Điểm chất lượng

OCF / Lợi nhuận ròng
1.54×
>1 cho thấy chất lượng lợi nhuận cao
Cổng chất lượng kế toán
Fail
Cổng điều chỉnh theo ngành
ROIC
Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn đầu tư
Phần 3

Numbers analysis

Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.
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