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The biggest opportunity for Dollar General is an accelerated recovery in retail operating margins toward the upper end of management's 6.0% to 7.0% long-term target framework.
Operating margin contracting below 4.5% over a trailing 12-month period.
Dollar General Corporation is rated Buy with an estimated Fair value of $146.47 per share, offering 22.2% upside from the analysis price of $119.83 on October 5, 2026, supported by operational shrink turnaround, non-discretionary consumables demand, and dominant rural convenience scale.4
Dollar General carries a Buy rating, indicating that the stock presents an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for long-term investors seeking capital appreciation and defensive cash flows. The company combines essential grocery demand with an active operational turnaround that is recovering retail operating margins toward management's long-term targets.5
The analysis was prepared on October 5, 2026, at a price of $119.83 per share. That price sits at an 18.2% discount to our central Fair value of $146.47, implying an upside of 22.2%. If operational efficiencies and store remodel programs deliver at the higher end of potential outcomes, the business shows Potential value of $205.22 per share.4
The central risk to this outlook is that persistent inflation forces lower-income shoppers to restrict their purchases strictly to low-margin everyday staples, locking sales mix into consumables while depressing higher-margin apparel and home merchandise. If retail wage increases and tougher year-over-year shrink comparisons stall operating margin below 4.5%, annual operating income would fall below $2.0 billion against fiscal 2025 levels of $2,203,668,000, slowing debt reduction and capping earnings growth.78
The primary reason this investment can succeed is that Dollar General is executing tangible operational improvements in inventory shrink and supply chain efficiency, which expanded gross margin by 137 basis points year-over-year in the second quarter—including 108 basis points directly from shrink abatement. Combined with 40 basis points of targeted damage reduction and fleet productivity gains from Project Elevate refreshes, operating margin is positioned to recover from 5.16% in fiscal 2025 toward the management framework of 6.0% to 7.0%. That margin recovery, applied across more than $42.7 billion in recurring net sales, drives strong cash flow and lifts earnings per share toward Fair value.57
Gross margin expanded 137 basis points year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, with 108 basis points driven directly by inventory shrink reduction. Combined with targeted damage reductions of 40 basis points, Dollar General possesses a tangible operational catalyst to rebuild operating margins from 5.16% in fiscal 2025 toward its 6.0% to 7.0% target framework.57
Operating thousands of stores in towns with fewer than 20,000 residents, Dollar General provides essential access where large retailers cannot justify physical presence. With over 75% of rural deliveries completed in one hour or less and Project Elevate updating 80% of mature stores, the company deepens customer loyalty and captures trade-in shoppers seeking affordable groceries.5
In fiscal 2025, Dollar General generated $3,634,500,000 in operating cash flow and $2,393,338,000 in free cash flow against capital expenditures of $1,241,162,000. Management's prudent pause on share repurchases prioritizes debt reduction across its $15,718,656,000 debt load while protecting consistent dividend distributions.
Buy: Dollar General's dominant rural retail network and demonstrated inventory shrink turnaround provide clear operational visibility toward restoring operating margins toward 6.0% to 7.0%, creating 22.2% upside to our Fair value of $146.47.
Under this stress scenario, persistent inflation erodes purchasing power for Dollar General's core low-income demographic, locking consumables at more than 82.04% of total sales ($35,053,180,000) and curtailing discretionary purchases in apparel ($1,130,304,000) and home products ($2,213,521,000). While Q2 demonstrated 108 bps of shrink abatement, tougher comparison laps in Q4 and rising liability claims combine with retail wage inflation to compress operating margin to 4.22%, matching FY2024 lows. Simultaneously, benchmark interest rates remaining elevated (risk-free rate 5.24%) lift refinancing yields on Dollar General's $15,718,656,000 debt load toward 7.50% from the current 5.78%. Annual interest expense surges, compressing net margin toward 2.5%, reducing annual free cash flow below $1.2B, and pulling equity fair value down toward the downside case of $98.63.
In the bear case, sustained inflationary pressures further strain rural household budgets, driving sales mix heavily into lower-margin staple consumables and depressing discretionary sales in apparel and home categories. Year-over-year shrink comparisons become more challenging, and wage pressures across store labor outpace productivity gains, stalling operating margin recovery below historical normalized levels. While strong cash conversion from grocery operations preserves essential solvency and debt service, free cash flow available for discretionary capital return remains restricted.
Consumables represent $35,053,180,000 of $42,724,369,000 total sales. Operating income was $2,203,668,000 in FY2025 yielding a 5.16% margin. Management noted tougher shrink comparison laps in Q4 and ongoing SG&A deleveraging pressures. A margin decline below 4.50% would echo FY2024 operating margin lows of 4.22%, invalidating the margin recovery thesis and resulting in an estimated fair value reduction of 28.5%.57
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Operating margin falling below 4.80% demonstrates that inventory shrink reduction benefits are being fully overwhelmed by SG&A wage deleveraging and consumables mix dilution, falsifying progress toward the 6.0%-7.0% operating margin objective.
Hiện tại:5.16% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu< 4.80%
Dollar General Corporation commands a Narrow economic moat predicated on structural cost advantages and efficient scale across rural America. The company operates a dense retail network of over 19,000 small-box stores, strategically situated in communities with populations typically under 20,000 where big-box retailers such as Walmart or Target cannot economically justify large-format stores. In FY2025, Dollar General generated $42,724,369,000 in net sales, underscoring its role as an indispensable everyday destination for rural consumers seeking staple food, household products, and basic consumables.
The durability of Dollar General's moat is reinforced by its proximity advantage and proprietary delivery capabilities. Management reports that over 75% of delivery orders are fulfilled in one hour or less, establishing a rapid-fulfillment convenience standard that national e-commerce providers and suburban grocers cannot replicate in sparsely populated areas. This physical distribution density generates high barriers to entry; rural trade areas typically support only one small-box discount store, creating a natural local monopoly that protects store foot traffic and visit frequency.
Economic returns substantiate this structural moat. Dollar General generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.69%, which comfortably exceeds both its computed moderate cost of equity of 7.37% and its computed WACC of 6.30%. Although peer Dollar Tree operates with higher gross margins of 37.18% and operating margins of 6.21%, Dollar General's 108 bps turnaround in inventory shrink and Project Elevate store refreshes support a stable moat trend and long-term economic profit generation.
Dollar General generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.69%, which comfortably exceeds both its computed moderate cost of equity of 7.37% and its computed WACC of 6.30%. This positive economic spread reflects low-cost rural real estate leases, efficient small-box store operations, and rapid inventory turnover across staple consumable categories.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($146.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.5B after modeled reinvestment of $331.3M, with terminal value at 84.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the base case, with an assigned probability of 50.0%, Dollar General delivers steady operational progress across its rural store footprint. Ongoing shrink abatement and supply chain stabilization expand operating margins toward historical normalized levels. Revenue expands modestly in line with mature small-box retail economics, while disciplined reinvestment drives free cash flow generation to fund steady debt reduction and dividend distributions. Under these conditions, the valuation points to a target of $146.47, delivering an implied return of 22.2% from the analysis price of $119.83 toward $146.47.
A beat driven by structural shrink abatement and resilient customer traffic validates accelerated progress toward management long-term operating margin framework. With share price sitting at $119.83 against $146.47, operational upside accelerates intrinsic value realization toward $205.22.
Results tracking management guided ranges confirm the core turnaround thesis. Meeting expectations supports the gradual recovery path toward normalized margins, maintaining our positive stance based on 22.2% upside from $119.83 to $146.47.
A miss driven by failing shrink recovery or foot traffic deterioration would challenge the margin normalization timeline, weakening operating leverage and delaying debt deleveraging.
Operating cash flow conversion exceeds reported net income substantially, reflecting conservative revenue recognition and disciplined working capital management. Cash generation is anchored by non-discretionary consumables cash collections at store checkout, eliminating accounts receivable collection risks. Inventory health is improving as operational initiatives curb shrink and damage losses, stabilizing working capital requirements. Because reported earnings are backed by strong cash flow rather than non-cash accruals, earnings quality remains high and supports debt reduction and dividend distributions.
Consensus estimate revisions following the recent earnings release show positive momentum across both revenue and diluted earnings per share. Upward revisions reflect confidence in ongoing shrink reduction, disciplined store operating expense management, and stable consumables visit frequency across rural communities.
Comparable store sales growth measures customer visit frequency and basket size across mature stores; positive comps provide operating leverage over fixed retail labor and store occupancy costs.
Dollar General demonstrates robust cash flow conversion across economic environments. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $3,634,500,000, converting net income of $1,512,311,000 at a 2.40x ratio. After deducting capital expenditures of $1,241,162,000, free cash flow stood at $2,393,338,000. High cash generation is supported by immediate cash receipts at point-of-sale, minimal bad debt risk, and stable non-cash charges including depreciation and amortization of $1,046,318,000 and stock-based compensation of $91,453,000.67
Capital allocation prioritizes self-funded store network optimization alongside balance sheet deleveraging. Management guided FY2025 of $1.3B to $1.4B, slightly above FY2025 of $1,241,162,000, to execute Project Elevate remodels across 80% of mature stores. To preserve liquidity and accelerate debt paydown across $15,718,656,000 in total debt, management paused share repurchases. Surplus of $2,393,338,000 fully funds the regular dividend and scheduled debt amortization without necessitating external equity .
Dollar General's 12.69% ROIC reflects strong asset efficiency inherent in its small-box retail model and rapid inventory turnover. While return on capital compressed during FY2024 when operating margin dropped to 4.22%, the recovery in FY2025 operating income to $2,203,668,000 (5.16% margin) and subsequent 108 bps shrink turnaround in Q2 establish an improving trajectory toward normalized profitability levels.
Dollar General's ROIC of 12.69% provides a 6.39 percentage point spread above its computed WACC of 6.30% and 5.32 percentage points above its computed cost of equity of 7.37%.
| Doanh thu | 11.290.380.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 7.609.459.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 3.680.921.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 2.911.757.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 769.164.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -218.849.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 550.315.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 30.963.730.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 1.138.501.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 7.897.803.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 22.451.768.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 6.961.135.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 8.511.962.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 1.512.311.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 3.634.500.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 1.046.318.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 91.453.000 US$ |
| Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác | 984.418.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 3.634.500.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 4.567.076.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 932.576.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư | 1.237.196.000 US$ |
| Capex | 1.241.162.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 2.191.379.000 US$ |
| Cổ tức đã trả | 519.510.000 US$ |
| Hoàn trả nợ ròng | 1.677.161.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 1.138.501.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | -1.237.196.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -2.191.379.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-03-20 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumables | 35,1 T US$ | 82% | 5% |
| Seasonal | 4,3 T US$ | 10,1% | 6,2% |
| Home Products | 2,2 T US$ | 5,2% | 6,7% |
| Apparel | 1,1 T US$ | 2,6% | 3,3% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-05.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-03 | 22 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 1,6 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 560,3 Tr US$ | 379,9 Tr US$ | 37 Tr US$ | 990,5 Tr US$ | 281,1 Tr US$ | — | -550,9 Tr US$ | -1 T US$ | — | 187,9 Tr US$ | 187,9 Tr US$ | 3,2 T US$ | 9,4% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2018-02-02 | 23,5 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 646,5 Tr US$ | 404,2 Tr US$ | 34,3 Tr US$ | 579,7 Tr US$ | 282,9 Tr US$ | — | -645 Tr US$ | -1,1 T US$ | 187,9 Tr US$ | 267,4 Tr US$ | 267,4 Tr US$ | 3 T US$ | 8,6% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2019-02-01 | 25,6 T US$ | 2,6 T US$ | 1,6 T US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 734,4 Tr US$ | 454,1 Tr US$ | 40,9 Tr US$ | 1 T US$ | 306,5 Tr US$ | — | -731,6 Tr US$ | -1,4 T US$ | 267,4 Tr US$ | 235,5 Tr US$ | 235,5 Tr US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 8,3% | — | 5,3% | — |
| 2020-01-31 | 27,8 T US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 2,2 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 784,8 Tr US$ | 504,8 Tr US$ | 48,6 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 327,6 Tr US$ | — | -782,5 Tr US$ | -1,5 T US$ | 235,5 Tr US$ | 240,3 Tr US$ | 240,3 Tr US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 8,3% | — | 3,8% | — |
| 2021-01-29 | 33,7 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 3,9 T US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 574,2 Tr US$ | 68,6 Tr US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 355,9 Tr US$ | — | -1 T US$ | -1,7 T US$ | 240,3 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 10,5% | — | 2,8% | — |
| 2022-01-28 | 34,2 T US$ | 3,9 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 641,3 Tr US$ | 78,2 Tr US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 392,2 Tr US$ | — | -1,1 T US$ | -2,8 T US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 344,8 Tr US$ | 344,8 Tr US$ | 4,2 T US$ | 9,4% | — | 3,6% | — |
| 2023-02-03 | 37,8 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 2 T US$ | 424 Tr US$ | 1,6 T US$ | 724,9 Tr US$ | 72,7 Tr US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 493,7 Tr US$ | 2,8 T US$ | -1,6 T US$ | -392,5 Tr US$ | 344,8 Tr US$ | 381,6 Tr US$ | 381,6 Tr US$ | 17,7 T US$ | 8,8% | — | 4,7% | — |
| 2024-02-02 | 38,7 T US$ | 3,3 T US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 691,6 Tr US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 848,8 Tr US$ | 51,9 Tr US$ | 0 US$ | 518 Tr US$ | -23,4 Tr US$ | -1,7 T US$ | -542,1 Tr US$ | 381,6 Tr US$ | 537,3 Tr US$ | 537,3 Tr US$ | 18,1 T US$ | 6,3% | — | 5,0% | — |
| 2025-01-31 | 40,6 T US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 3 T US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 971,7 Tr US$ | 58,7 Tr US$ | 0 US$ | 519 Tr US$ | -770,2 Tr US$ | -1,3 T US$ | -1,3 T US$ | 537,3 Tr US$ | 932,6 Tr US$ | 932,6 Tr US$ | 17,5 T US$ | 4,2% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2026-01-30 | 42,7 T US$ | 3,2 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 3,6 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 91,5 Tr US$ | — | 519,5 Tr US$ | -1,7 T US$ | -1,2 T US$ | -2,2 T US$ | 932,6 Tr US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 15,7 T US$ | 5,2% | — | 4,9% | — |
Dollar General Corporation (DG) trades at 15.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.3x compares with a peer median of 12.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Hershey Company, Kenvue Inc., Dollar Tree Inc. and The Estee Lauder Companies Inc., as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.
Industry benchmark data shows an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.90% and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.91, reflecting active expansion and reinvestment across the broader consumer defensive retail sector. Because detailed capacity and supply lead-time metrics are not reported across peers, this capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
In an industry upcycle or soft-landing scenario, modest economic growth and sticky everyday inflation encourage value-seeking behavior across income cohorts. Dollar General benefits from customer trade-in activity, which expands transaction volumes. Concurrently, supply chain stabilization and proven inventory shrink mitigation (108 bps tailwind in Q2) lift operating margin back toward the 6.0%-7.0% target framework, driving double-digit earnings growth.
In an industry downcycle marked by severe consumer budget exhaustion and stagflation, lower-income households reduce discretionary shopping, confining purchases strictly to low-margin consumables ($35,053,180,000 in FY2025). Intense promotional competition from peers like Dollar Tree, which operates with a 37.18% gross margin, combined with wage and insurance claim inflation, restricts operating leverage and depresses store-level operating margins below 5.00%.
Dollar General is strategically positioned as the premier rural convenience retailer in the United States. Its network of over 19,000 stores serves communities with limited grocery competition, providing a 10-minute proximity advantage. Over 75% of delivery orders are fulfilled in one hour or less, establishing an unmatched convenience moat. Merchandising initiatives such as Value Valley dollar price points and Project Elevate mature store remodels position the company to defend core traffic while capturing higher-income trade-in shoppers.5
An attractive 22.23% upside to Fair value of $146.47 against the analysis price of $119.83 is balanced against the enterprise debt load ($15,718,656,000) and multi-year operational turnaround execution. A 3-4% portfolio allocation captures strong defensive cash flows without over-concentrating balance sheet refinancing risk.4
Risk management focuses on monitoring rural low-income consumer health, competitive price indexation against Dollar Tree and mass merchants, and progress on debt deleveraging. Investors should cap position size at 4% of total equity assets, given the company's $15,718,656,000 debt load and 5.78% pre-tax cost of debt in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment. Regular quarterly tracking of gross margin shrink contribution, same-store sales comps, and free cash flow conversion ensures disciplined capital protection.
Trading at an 18.2% discount to Fair value ($146.47) and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 15.31x, Dollar General offers favorable risk-adjusted upside driven by mean-reverting operating margins from 5.16% toward 6.50%.
Dollar General generates strong free cash flow ($2,393,338,000 in fiscal 2025) that safely covers its regular dividend payout ratio of approximately 30.7% while excess cash is prudently prioritized for debt retirement.
With non-discretionary consumables comprising 82.04% of total sales and an adjusted beta of 0.5153, Dollar General provides defensive insulation against macroeconomic volatility alongside a solid rural convenience moat.28
We recommend a Buy rating on Dollar General Corporation. At the analysis price of $119.83 on October 5, 2026, the equity is priced at an 18.2% discount to our central Fair value of $146.47, implying 22.2% upside. Dollar General's dominant footprint in rural America shields core foot traffic, while initial operational successes in reducing inventory shrink provide a clear path to rebuilding operating profitability toward 6.0% to 7.0%.45
With annual operating cash flow of $3,634,500,000 supporting store fleet reinvestment and debt paydown across $15,718,656,000 in obligations, the business combines solid downside protection with substantial operational upside. Investors should accumulate shares as management executes on Project Elevate and margin recovery.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Dollar General carries $15,718,656,000 in total debt with debt weight at 37.37% of enterprise value. The current pre-tax cost of debt is 5.78% over a 5.24% risk-free rate. An increase in refinancing yields above 7.50% significantly raises WACC above the computed 6.30% baseline, depresses equity valuation by 22.0% to 25.3%, and increases interest burdens across upcoming maturities.24
Comparable store sales growth dropping below 1.00% signals severe rural foot traffic exhaustion and customer market share losses to discount competitors like Dollar Tree, precipitating negative operating leverage across fixed store occupancy expenses.
Hiện tại:2.1%-2.6% guided FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu< 1.00% YoY
Operating cash flow falling below $2.5B would compromise Dollar General's ability to self-fund guided capital expenditures of $1.3B-$1.4B and service its $15,718,656,000 enterprise debt load.
Hiện tại:$3,634,500,000 in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu< $2,500,000,000
An increase in pre-tax debt financing costs above 7.50% significantly raises interest burdens across Dollar General's $15,718,656,000 enterprise debt load, elevating WACC above the 6.30% baseline and depressing equity value.
Hiện tại:5.78% as of 2026-10-05
Cảnh báo nếu> 7.50%
Consumables rising above 85% of total revenue reflects severe curtailment of higher-margin discretionary merchandise in apparel ($1,130,304,000) and home products ($2,213,521,000), permanently depressing blended gross margin.
Hiện tại:82.04% of total sales in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu> 85.00%
| high |
| 6-12 months |
| Executing shrink reduction initiatives that delivered 108 bps gross margin benefit, targeted 40 bps damage reduction, and high-margin Value Valley merchandise offerings.5 |
| Refinancing yields rising across the $15.72B enterprise debt load in an elevated rate environment | medium | 24-36 months | Generating strong operating cash flow of $3,634,500,000 and pausing share repurchases to direct free cash flow of $2,393,338,000 toward balance sheet debt amortization.567 |
Under the moderate discount rate, 29,40 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 149 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 178 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (34,99 US$) plus discounted terminal value (197 US$) minus signed per current share (66,09 US$) equals the 166 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the bull case, with an assigned probability of 25.0%, operational turnaround initiatives yield accelerated margin expansion. Front- and back-of-house inventory interventions curb shrink and damage losses faster than anticipated, lifting gross margins. Store refreshes under Project Elevate and expanding rapid rural delivery capture higher-income trade-in shoppers, boosting comparable store sales and driving operating margins toward the upper end of management target framework. Under this scenario, the target reaches $205.22, offering an implied return of 71.3% and realizing $205.22.
Shrink abatement directly restores gross margin without requiring price increases, providing the essential bridge toward management long-term operating margin targets.
Operating margin expansion reflects the balance between gross margin gains and store-level wage inflation, establishing sustainable net earnings power.
Robust free cash flow generation allows management to pay down maturing enterprise debt, reduce interest expense burdens, and protect ongoing dividend distributions.
Rapid delivery fulfillment in rural communities reinforces geographic convenience advantages against mass merchants, protecting local market share and basket size.
| $48.06B |
| $49.65B |
| $51.04B |
| Revenue growth | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Operating income | $2.41B | $2.69B | $2.93B | $3.15B | $3.32B |
| Tax rate | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| NOPAT | $1.84B | $2.06B | $2.24B | $2.41B | $2.54B |
| Reinvestment | $331.26M | $329.04M | $336.43M | $337.66M | $329.93M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 18.0% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.51B | $1.73B | $1.91B | $2.07B | $2.21B |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Gross margin expanded 137 bps YoY in Q2 2026, with 108 bps driven by shrink reduction, alongside a targeted 40 bps damage reduction.
Inventory loss containment directly restores gross margin without necessitating customer price hikes, establishing the core operational lever to expand operating margin from 5.16% in FY2025 toward management's 6.0%-7.0% target framework.
Consumables accounted for $35,053,180,000, or 82.04% of total sales of $42,724,369,000 in FY2025, while higher-margin apparel ($1,130,304,000) and home products ($2,213,521,000) remained subdued.
High non-discretionary consumables exposure insulates store traffic from recessions, but gross margin expansion must rely on merchandise initiatives like Value Valley rather than a broad discretionary recovery.
Dollar General generated $3,634,500,000 in operating cash flow and $2,393,338,000 in free cash flow against capital expenditures of $1,241,162,000 in FY2025.
Surplus cash flow provides full funding for guided capex ($1.3B-$1.4B) and dividend distributions, allowing disciplined debt amortization across the $15.72B debt load.
| Biên |
|---|
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | $26.4B | 15.3x | 0.6x | 11.3x | 19.7% | — |
| HSY | The Hershey Company | $32.2B | 16.2x | 2.6x | 13.7x | 32.8% | 23.1% |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc. | $33.0B | 13.9x | 2.1x | 11.6x | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree Inc. | $21.1B | 14.2x | 1.1x | 11.0x | 46.0% | 6.2% |
| EL | The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. | $33.3B | 23.5x | 2.2x | 15.9x | 4.7% | 7.0% |
| negative |
| Structural upward pressure on hourly wages and logistics labor elevates store operating costs, necessitating operational efficiencies to mitigate SG&A deleveraging. |
| $95.00 - $100.00 | Complete Full Allocation | Deploys the final 20% allocation near the 52-week low ($95.11), capitalizing on maximum asymmetry as the valuation approaches stress-case levels. |
| Annual Operating Cash Flow | < $3,000,000,000 annualized | Review capital expenditure commitments and evaluate if debt paydown capacity on the $15.72B debt load is impaired. |
