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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
EXAS — frequently asked questions
Is Exact Sciences Corp overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-13, EXAS looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 105 USD versus our fair value of 114 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 165 USD. That implies roughly 8.7% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-13, gives EXAS a fair value of 114 USD and a potential value of 165 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Exact Sciences Corp's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy EXAS now?
Our latest published rating for EXAS, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Hold. Exact Sciences Corp looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 105 USD versus fair value of 114 USD; potential value is 165 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for EXAS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-13 documents Exact Sciences Corp's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is EXAS's rating?
Our latest published rating for EXAS, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 114 USD, the potential value of 165 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (105 USD).
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§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyHold
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$104.91
Giá trị hợp lý
$114.04
Giá trị tiềm năng
$165.46
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Successful Cologuard Plus launch and multi-cancer test expansion drive sustained double-digit growth, scaling margins and expanding terminal multiples.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Liquid Biopsy Disruption: Emergence of competitive, highly accurate blood-based cancer screening tests erodes Cologuard volume.
Exact Sciences is a leading pre-profit diagnostics company, driven by its flagship Cologuard test. While GAAP earnings remain negative due to heavy SG&A and R&D investments, the company boasts strong ~70% gross margins and positive operating cash flow, positioning it to scale toward operating profitability.
Exact Sciences is a leading pre-profit diagnostics company, driven by its flagship Cologuard test. While GAAP earnings remain negative due to heavy SG&A and R&D investments, the company boasts strong ~70% gross margins and positive operating cash flow, positioning it to scale toward operating profitability.
First-mover advantage in non-invasive stool
First-mover advantage in non-invasive stool DNA screening
Vast distribution network and provider integrations
Cycle upside
Accelerating adoption of non-invasive screening, favorable regulatory mandates, and expanding addressable age cohorts.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
EXAS is rated Hold at the report-date price of $104.91 versus our fair value of $114.04, with +8.70% potential return.
Tổng quan công ty
Exact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally. It offers Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer; Cologuard Plus Tests; Cancerguard Test; and Genetic Testing. The company also provides Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score Test; Oncotype DX Breast DCIS Score Test; Oncotype DX Colon Recurrence Score Test; Oncodetect Test;OncoExTra Test for tumor profiling for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, relapsed, or recurrent cancer; and Riskguard Test, a hereditary cancer test to understand their inherited risk of cancer. Its pipeline focus on advancing screening and diagnostic products, including risk assessment, screening and prevention, early disease diagnosis, adjuvant and/or neoadjuvant disease treatment, metastatic disease treatment selection, and recurrence monitoring. The company has license agreements with MAYO Foundation for Medical Education and Research, and Johns Hopkins University, as well as Freenome Holdings, Inc. Exact Sciences Corporation was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
If revenue growth unexpectedly drops to the 6.5% market-implied floor and EV/Revenue compresses from 8.0x to sector averages, the valuation falls rapidly toward the $72.48 bear case.
Erosion in profitability undermines the operating leverage required to absorb heavy commercial infrastructure and R&D commitments. Compressing unit economics impairs the structural path toward sustained operating profitability, forcing longer reliance on external capital and dampening valuation multiples across core diagnostic franchises.
Hiện tại:69.7% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 65.0% over any fiscal year
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
First-mover advantage in non-invasive stool DNA screening
Vast distribution network and provider integrations
Brand equity of Cologuard
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01First-mover advantage in non-invasive stool DNA screening — First-mover advantage in non-invasive stool DNA screeningModerate
02Vast distribution network and provider integrations — Vast distribution network and provider integrationsModerate
03Brand equity of Cologuard — Brand equity of CologuardModerate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Emerging blood-based liquid biopsy screening
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Successful Cologuard Plus launch and multi-cancer test expansion drive sustained double-digit growth, scaling margins and expanding terminal multiples.
Warning level: < 65.0% over any fiscal year. Erosion in profitability undermines the operating leverage required to absorb heavy commercial infrastructure and R&D commitments. Compressing unit economics impairs the structural path toward sustained operating profitability, forcing longer reliance on external capital and dampening valuation multiples across core diagnostic franchises.
EXAS trades at 55.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.3x; EV/EBITDA of 302.2x against a peer median of 18.7x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Transitioning from cash-burn R&D expansion to early cash-flow harvesting, though GAAP profits still lag behind operating cash flow.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Accelerating adoption of non-invasive screening, favorable regulatory mandates, and expanding addressable age cohorts.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Capital tightening limits diagnostic R&D; payers push back aggressively on high-cost screening reimbursement.
Định vị
Transitioning from cash-burn R&D expansion to early cash-flow harvesting, though GAAP profits still lag behind operating cash flow.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Maintain market-weight due to pre-profit volatility and heavy synthesis reliance on terminal EV/Revenue multiples.
Rủi ro
Trim exposure aggressively if gross margins break below 65% or if a blood-based competitor achieves superior adenoma sensitivity in trials.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Accumulate on pullbacks below $100, heavily supported by the low 6.5% market-implied growth floor.
Accumulate on pullbacks below $100, heavily supported by the low 6.5% market-implied growth floor.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Trim exposure aggressively if gross margins break below 65% or if a blood-based competitor achieves superior adenoma sensitivity in trials.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Hold. Upside exists (8.7%), but terminal multiple reliance and persistent liquid biopsy risks warrant a neutral stance until GAAP profitability line of sight clears entirely.
Base view
Hold
At $104.91, shares trade slightly below our $114.04 fair value. The market currently implies a 6.5% CAGR versus a 12.7% internal valuation cross-checks, providing a substantial margin of safety despite the lack of GAAP earnings.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giữ
Hold. Upside exists (8.7%), but terminal multiple reliance and persistent liquid biopsy risks warrant a neutral stance until GAAP profitability line of sight clears entirely.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Persistent overhead rigidity prevents top-line expansion from converting into positive operating income. Failure to realize sales efficiency gains delays the inflection to GAAP profitability, keeping the business vulnerable to cost shocks and multiple compression while testing shareholder tolerance for chronic pre-profit operations.
Hiện tại:Operating margin was -6.1% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuSG&A as a percentage of revenue increases by >= 0.0% year-over-year over any fiscal year
Cảnh báo nếu< 12.7% year-over-year over any fiscal year
04
Liquid Biopsy Regulatory Clearance
Commercialization of an accurate non-invasive liquid biopsy would severely disrupt market dominance by offering superior patient compliance. Significant market share loss in asymptomatic screening would compress test volume trajectories, diminish pricing power, and impair long-term franchise cash flow generation.
Hiện tại:No FDA-approved blood-based screening competitor as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Cảnh báo nếu>= 1 FDA approval granted for a competitive blood-based colorectal cancer screening diagnostic over any 12-month period
Sustaining self-funded commercialization depends entirely on remaining cash flow positive while GAAP net income remains negative. A cash burn relapse would deplete balance sheet reserves, restrict commercial expansion investments, and raise the risk of dilutive financing.
Hiện tại:$491M TTM as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Cảnh báo nếu< $0 over any trailing twelve-month period
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Hiện tạiOperating margin was -6.1% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: SG&A as a percentage of revenue increases by >= 0.0% year-over-year over any fiscal year. Persistent overhead rigidity prevents top-line expansion from converting into positive operating income. Failure to realize sales efficiency gains delays the inflection to GAAP profitability, keeping the business vulnerable to cost shocks and multiple compression while testing shareholder tolerance for chronic pre-profit operations.
Warning level: < 12.7% year-over-year over any fiscal year. Slowing expansion indicates maturing primary screening adoption or rising market resistance. Falling top-line momentum impairs scale economics, directly compresses enterprise multiples, and undermines the primary growth narrative justifying premium commercial valuation.
04
Chỉ số:
Liquid Biopsy Regulatory Clearance
Hiện tạiNo FDA-approved blood-based screening competitor as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: >= 1 FDA approval granted for a competitive blood-based colorectal cancer screening diagnostic over any 12-month period. Commercialization of an accurate non-invasive liquid biopsy would severely disrupt market dominance by offering superior patient compliance. Significant market share loss in asymptomatic screening would compress test volume trajectories, diminish pricing power, and impair long-term franchise cash flow generation.
Hiện tại$491M TTM as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: < $0 over any trailing twelve-month period. Sustaining self-funded commercialization depends entirely on remaining cash flow positive while GAAP net income remains negative. A cash burn relapse would deplete balance sheet reserves, restrict commercial expansion investments, and raise the risk of dilutive financing.
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Ngày đánh giá
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Bảng điểm đầu tư67 / 100
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