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Robinhood has matured from a disruptive trading app into a profitable financial platform. However, the massive swing to $1.88B in net income is driven by cyclical operating leverage, higher interest rates, and returning crypto volumes. Fair value range: low $12.1, high $41.6, with mid-point at $27.4.
Stock analysis

HOOD fair value $12–$42

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-05-20Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Giá
$75.41
▼ -48.02 (-63.68%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$27
$12–$42
Khuyến nghị
Bán
confidence 82/100
Tiềm năng tăng
-63.7%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$23.28
MoS level · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
$67.9B
P/E fwd 27.6
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Massive intrinsic overvaluation, with fair value midpoint sitting 72% below internal valuation anchors.
  • Current 46.8% margins are peak-cycle due to high interest rates on sweep cash.
  • Market expectations ($75.41 current price) require 21.36% perpetual growth.
  • Residual income model imposes a harsh floor on ROE, dampening equity value.
  • The thesis rests on capturing primary financial relationships before legacy peers adapt.
Fair value
$27
Margin of safety
-175.3%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$75.41Price
Low $12.08
Mid $27.39
High $41.64

Robinhood has matured from a disruptive trading app into a profitable financial platform. However, the massive swing to $1.88B in net income is driven by cyclical operating leverage, higher interest rates, and returning crypto volumes.

  • User experience and UI design
    User experience and UI design
  • Brand recognition among retail investors
    Brand recognition among retail investors
  • Cycle upside
    High interest rates drive net interest income, while strong markets encourage retail trading and crypto speculation.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

A return to zero interest rate policy combined with a prolonged bear market would severely impact both net interest incomeNet Interest IncomeNet Interest Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and transaction revenues, the core pillars of Robinhood's current profitability.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

ZIRP Returns

· Low

The Federal Reserve cuts rates aggressively to zero, obliterating net interest revenues on sweep cash.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
1-3 Years

PFOF Ban

· Medium

Regulatory action bans Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) or severely restricts crypto trading models.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
2-5 Years

Retail Exodus

· High

Retail engagement wanes during a prolonged bear market, crushing transaction volumes and active accounts.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
1-2 Years
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Operating margins fall below 40% after rate cutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gold subscription growth decelerates to single digitsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net asset inflows decline or turn negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Crypto trading volumes shrink consistentlyMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions against PFOF advanceMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Khoản mụcT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Kỳ2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Doanh thu$1.36B$1.87B$2.95B$4.47B+48.8%
Lợi nhuận gộp$770.0M$1.72B$2.34B$3.73B+69.2%
Lợi nhuận hoạt động$-966.0M$-536.0M$1.05B$2.09B—
Lợi nhuận ròng$-1.03B$-541.0M$1.41B$1.88B—
EPS (pha loãng)$-1.17$-0.61$1.56$2.05—
EBITDA$-905.0M$-465.0M$1.13B$2.18B—
R&D$878.0M$805.0M$818.0M$897.0M+0.7%
SG&A$725.0M$1.29B$363.0M$576.0M-7.4%

Điểm chất lượng

OCF / Lợi nhuận ròng
0.87×
>1 cho thấy chất lượng lợi nhuận cao
Cổng chất lượng kế toán
Fail
Cổng điều chỉnh theo ngành
ROIC
8.0%
Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn đầu tư
Phần 3

Numbers analysis

Dòng tiền

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Phân bổ vốn

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

HOOD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, HOOD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $75.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $27.4 (range $12.1–$41.6), which implies roughly 63.7% downside to the midpoint.

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