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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
IEX — frequently asked questions
Is IDEX Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, IEX looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 234 USD versus our fair value of 168 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 185 USD. That implies roughly 28.1% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives IEX a fair value of 168 USD and a potential value of 185 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for IDEX Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy IEX now?
Our latest published rating for IEX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell. IDEX Corporation looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 234 USD versus fair value of 168 USD; potential value is 185 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for IEX?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents IDEX Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is IEX's rating?
Our latest published rating for IEX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 168 USD, the potential value of 185 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (234 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$234.29
Giá trị hợp lý
$168.38
Giá trị tiềm năng
$185.31
Tính đến
2026-10-09
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerated commercial adoption of proprietary precision fluidic cooling manifolds in hyperscale AI data centers combined with non-idling high-purity water heating systems for advanced semiconductor fabs, driving Health and Science Technologies organic growth into double digits.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Expiration of tariff refunds accompanied by selective customer rebate concessions and persistent input inflation.
IDEX Corporation is assigned a Sell rating as its share price of $234.29 on October 9, 2026 trades at a substantial 39.14% premium to the house Fair value of $168.38. While IDEX maintains exceptional operational execution and secular momentum in Health and Science Technologies, prevailing valuation multiples leave no safety margin against persistent European and Asian industrial headwinds.4,5,8
IDEX demonstrates admirable commercial discipline across its precision fluidics and instrumentation portfolio. In the second quarter of 2026, management raised full-year organic revenue growth to 5%-6% and adjusted guidance to $8.70-$8.85, supported by low double-digit expansion in Health and Science Technologies where data center liquid cooling and semiconductor equipment customers are prebooking capacity through 2027. are projected to expand from 20.23% in FY2025 toward 23.2% by FY2030 as 80/20 operational rigor optimizes acquired business units.
However, this operational strength is heavily discounted by market pricing. IDEX trades at 23.98x forward earnings, commanding a premium over diversified peer ITW (21.40x forward P/E) despite ITW generating significantly higher operating margins (26.90% vs IDEX's 20.23%). Furthermore, international operations remain exposed to cyclical destocking across Europe ($846.2M revenue) and Asia ($563.0M revenue), while guided FY2026 capex surges to $110M. With the house Fair value synthesized at $168.38, representing an implied return of -28.13%, capital preservation mandates a Sell rating.3,4,5,7,8
Switching Costs
Custom-engineered fluidic sub-assemblies, precision micro-pumps, and specialized valves are designed directly into customer instruments and machines, creating prohibitive platform re-engineering, regulatory validation, and operational switching costs for OEMs.5
Proprietary patents and specialized trade secrets protect key technologies, such as non-idling high-purity water heating systems for semiconductor manufacturing and specialized automation fluidics.5
Cycle upside
During an industrial upcycle, semiconductor fabrication equipment builds surge alongside hyper-scale AI data center construction, driving rapid order conversion for IDEX's precision liquid cooling manifolds and high-purity fluidic assemblies. Concurrently, general industrial demand in North America and Europe rebounds, filling rapid-replenishment channels and driving operating margin expansion through overhead absorption and 80/20 operational efficiencies.5
Khuyến nghị của hãng
The investment committee maintains a Sell rating on IDEX Corporation. The shares price in flawless multi-year execution across secular niches while ignoring cyclical exposure in European and Asian industrial markets. Investors should eliminate or trim equity exposure, as the share price of $234.29 on October 9, 2026 implies -28.13% downside to the house Fair value of $168.38.4
Tổng quan công ty
IDEX Corporation is an applied solutions manufacturer specializing in fluidics systems, precision optics, fire and rescue equipment, and metering devices. The company serves global niche industrial, life sciences, semiconductor, and municipal markets through three operating segments: Health and Science Technologies, Fluid and Metering Technologies, and Fire and Safety Diversified Products.
IDEX generates broad geographic revenue diversification, with the United States accounting for $1,760.8M (50.9%), Europe generating $846.2M (24.5%), and Asia contributing $563.0M (16.3%) of total FY2025 revenue ($3,457.5M). The business maintains low customer concentration, with its largest individual customer representing less than 3% of net sales.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In a severe macroeconomic stress scenario, synchronized industrial contractions in Europe and Asia cascade into broad-based original equipment manufacturer inventory destocking across the Fluid and Metering Technologies and Fire and Safety Diversified Products segments. As international revenues contract, domestic general industrial customers reduce rapid-replenishment order velocity. Compounding top-line deceleration, the cessation of tariff refund recoveries coincides with selective pricing rebate pressure, causing gross margins to compress below 42% and driving consolidated operating margins under 19.5%. Concurrently, full-year capital expenditures of $110M committed to prebooked capacity must still be funded against declining operating cash flows, reducing annual free cash flow below $450M and leaving debt of $1.89B elevated. In this environment, IDEX's compounder valuation premium evaporates, compressing its forward multiple toward 17.0x and exposing existing equity holdings to severe capital loss.
Organic revenue growth decelerates toward 1% to 2% under persistent European and Asian industrial destocking.5
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Tariff rebate expiration and commercial pricing lag trigger sustained operating margin contraction across FMT and HST segments.
Management noted selective rebate activity on tariff adjustments in Q2 and tough margin comparisons as tariff pricing took effect faster than underlying costs. If tariff refunds cease and input inflation persists without offsetting OEM price increases, consolidated operating margin falls below 19.5%, down from FY2025 20.23%.5,7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Tariff rebate expiration and input inflation outpace OEM price adjustments, causing fixed cost de-leverage across FMT and HST.
Hiện tại:20.23% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu< 19.5%
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
IDEX Corporation possesses a durable narrow economic moat anchored primarily by high switching costs and specialized intangible assets. In its Health and Science Technologies segment, IDEX manufactures mission-critical fluidic sub-assemblies that are embedded directly into life science analytical instruments, medical diagnostic devices, and semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment. Because the cost of component failure is catastrophic while the unit cost represents a fraction of the total tool value, OEMs face substantial re-certification risks and operational delays if they attempt to switch component suppliers.
The company enhances this architectural defensibility through proprietary process intellectual property and continuous co-development with leading OEMs. For example, IDEX's patented high-purity water heating solution for semiconductor manufacturing operates without continuous idling, delivering vital water and energy conservation benefits that competitive offerings cannot replicate. Combined with disciplined 80/20 operational execution that prunes product line complexity and focuses resources on core accounts, IDEX sustains gross margins of 44.51% and maintains return on capital above its cost of financing.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
IDEX delivers a return on invested capital of 9.52%, which exceeds its moderate weighted average cost of capital of 8.71%, generating a positive economic profit spread of 81 basis points. However, this return profile lags premier peer ITW, which generates a 26.90% operating margin and return on equity exceeding 100%.2,3
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Custom-engineered fluidic sub-assemblies, precision micro-pumps, and specialized valves are designed directly into customer instruments and machines, creating prohibitive platform re-engineering, regulatory validation, and operational switching costs for OEMs.Wide
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary patents and specialized trade secrets protect key technologies, such as non-idling high-purity water heating systems for semiconductor manufacturing and specialized automation fluidics.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
OEM redesign cycles and next-generation equipment platform transitions phasing out legacy fluidic architectures.
medium
2 to 4 years
Early engagement with OEM system architects to co-design replacement modular components and embed proprietary automation gear.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($168.38). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Consolidated revenue growth of 6.74% in FY2026 and 5.99% in FY2027 fading to 4.5% by FY2030.1
Operating margin expands from 20.23% in FY2025 to 21.5% in FY2026 and reaches 23.2% by FY2030.5,7
Share repurchases retire ~0.7% to 1.0% of diluted shares annually, funded by steady operating cash flows.5
Terminal exit P/E multiple of 21.0x, aligning with mature high-grade peer ITW (21.40x).3
Under the base case, IDEX achieves organic revenue growth accelerating into 5%-6% in FY2026, consistent with raised management guidance, followed by 5.99% in FY2027. Operating margin expands from 20.23% in FY2025 toward 23.2% by FY2030 through disciplined 80/20 operational execution. Diluted EPS increases from $6.41 in FY2025 to $8.83 in FY2026 and $9.63 in FY2027. At an exit P/E of 21.0x, in line with mature peer ITW (21.40x), intrinsic value aligns with the house Fair value midpoint of $168.38.1,3,5
HST segment revenue grows at low double digits through 2028 on sustained data center liquid cooling adoption.5
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Evaluate order backlog duration into subsequent fiscal periods and monitor whether customer prebooking extends beyond initial commitments before adjusting portfolio weightings.
A decisive beat driven by accelerating Health and Science Technologies demand and faster margin accretion would demonstrate that high-margin platforms can outpace European industrial drag, narrowing the gap to Fair value.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Maintain disciplined risk limits and review position allocation against diversified industrial peers that offer wider margins of safety.
Meeting guidance confirms the operational baseline but leaves the current market valuation stretched above $168.38, offering insufficient margin of safety given cyclical risks.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Immediately scrutinize segment order books and reassess exposure given the absence of operational buffers to absorb negative revisions.
Kích hoạt: Consolidated organic revenue growth or operating margin falling below the guided band due to international industrial destocking or pricing concessions
An earnings miss caused by distributor inventory adjustments in Europe or selective pricing rebates would accelerate valuation multiple compression toward historical peer averages.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is supported by healthy operating cash flow conversion and disciplined working capital control. Reported net income translates reliably into free cash generation, with capital expenditures focused primarily on prebooked OEM capacity expansions. Operating margins are driven by structural gross profitability rather than non-operating items, although selective tariff rebate concessions introduce minor timing variability in reported segment profitability.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus earnings per share and revenue estimates experienced upward revisions following second-quarter earnings, supported by management raising full-year outlook across organic revenue growth, operating margin, and adjusted diluted earnings per share. Analysts increased forward projections to reflect accelerating backlog delivery in Health and Science Technologies, while maintaining moderate expectations for international industrial recovery.
IDEX exhibits strong cash flow conversion underpinned by gross margins of 44.51%. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $680.4M and free cash flow totaled $616.8M, delivering free cash flow conversion of 127.6% relative to net income of $483.2M. While FY2026 free cash flow will temporarily moderate due to the $110M capex ramp, the underlying asset-light manufacturing profile ensures normalized free cash flow will exceed $650M annually as new capacity scales.5,6,7
Phân bổ vốn
IDEX exercises a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances internal capacity reinvestment, bolt-on acquisitions, and shareholder returns. For FY2026, growth are targeted at ~$110M, stepping up from $63.6M in FY2025 to support prebooked data center programs. The company maintains a steady share repurchase pace of ~$75M quarterly (~$300M annualized) through the remainder of 2026, which systematically reduces the by approximately 0.7% to 1.0% annually against 75.3M . Total company debt of $1.89B is supported by $680.4M in , maintaining an equity weight of 90.16% in the capital structure.
IDEX generates an attractive return on capital, with its ROIC of 9.52% exceeding its moderate WACC of 8.71%. The trajectory is supported by the systematic deployment of 80/20 operational initiatives across acquired businesses, lifting operating margins from 20.23% in FY2025 toward 23.2% by FY2030. However, ROIC expansion is tempered by elevated goodwill and intangible asset balances from prior acquisitions.
ROIC exceeds WACC by 81 basis points (9.52% vs 8.71%), demonstrating value creation, although the spread is modest compared to peers such as ITW (operating margin 26.90%) and Nordson (operating margin 27.40%).
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu920,6 Tr US$Giá vốn doanh thu−493,8 Tr US$Lợi nhuận gộp426,8 Tr US$Chi phí hoạt động−226,9 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động199,9 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−56,5 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng143,4 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
920.600.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
493.800.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
426.800.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
226.900.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
199.900.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-56.500.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
143.400.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản6,9 T US$Tiền mặt580 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn1,6 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả2,9 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn575,4 Tr US$Vốn chủ sở hữu4 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
6.927.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
580.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
1.643.200.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
2.900.800.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
575.400.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
4.026.200.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng483,2 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+206,5 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+27,3 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−36,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động680,4 Tr US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ638,9 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+680,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−137,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−632,6 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+36,8 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ585,9 Tr US$
680,4 Tr US$ − 63,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 616,8 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
483.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
717.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
206.500.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
27.300.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
680.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
36.600.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.356.100.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
638.900.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
36.800.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
137.600.000 US$
Capex
63.600.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
74.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
632.600.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
247.800.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
212.600.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
170.900.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
1.300.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
585.900.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-137.600.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-632.600.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
3,5 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Health And Science Technologies1,5 T US$43,1%+15,2% so với cùng kỳ
Fluid And Metering Technologies1,2 T US$35,4%−0,8% so với cùng kỳ
Fire And Safety Diversified Products744,3 Tr US$21,5%+0,2% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Health And Science Technologies
1,5 T US$
43,1%
15,2%
Fluid And Metering Technologies
1,2 T US$
35,4%
-0,8%
Fire And Safety Diversified Products
744,3 Tr US$
21,5%
0,2%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
3,5 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States1,8 T US$50,9%+8,6% so với cùng kỳ
Europe846,2 Tr US$24,5%+6,2% so với cùng kỳ
Asia563 Tr US$16,3%−1,4% so với cùng kỳ
Other Geographical Areas165,1 Tr US$4,8%+7,2% so với cùng kỳ
North America Excluding United States129,7 Tr US$3,8%−2% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
1,8 T US$
50,9%
8,6%
Europe
846,2 Tr US$
24,5%
6,2%
Asia
563 Tr US$
16,3%
-1,4%
Other Geographical Areas
165,1 Tr US$
4,8%
7,2%
North America Excluding United States
129,7 Tr US$
3,8%
-2%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-11.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
2,1 T US$
507,9 Tr US$
271,1 Tr US$
399,9 Tr US$
361,7 Tr US$
38,2 Tr US$
86,9 Tr US$
20,3 Tr US$
57,3 Tr US$
102,7 Tr US$
—
-509,2 Tr US$
46,5 Tr US$
—
236 Tr US$
236 Tr US$
1 T US$
19,5%
—
6,4%
—
2017-12-31
2,3 T US$
591 Tr US$
337,3 Tr US$
432,8 Tr US$
388,9 Tr US$
43,9 Tr US$
84,2 Tr US$
24,4 Tr US$
29,1 Tr US$
111,2 Tr US$
—
-54,7 Tr US$
-277,4 Tr US$
236 Tr US$
376 Tr US$
376 Tr US$
862,2 Tr US$
22,0%
—
6,5%
—
2018-12-31
2,5 T US$
657,1 Tr US$
410,6 Tr US$
479,3 Tr US$
423,3 Tr US$
56,1 Tr US$
77,5 Tr US$
24,8 Tr US$
173,9 Tr US$
127,5 Tr US$
—
-81,4 Tr US$
-290 Tr US$
376 Tr US$
466,4 Tr US$
466,4 Tr US$
851,1 Tr US$
22,9%
—
6,8%
—
2019-12-31
2,5 T US$
647,8 Tr US$
425,5 Tr US$
528,1 Tr US$
477,2 Tr US$
50,9 Tr US$
76,9 Tr US$
22,1 Tr US$
54,7 Tr US$
147,2 Tr US$
—
-137 Tr US$
-227,6 Tr US$
466,4 Tr US$
632,6 Tr US$
632,6 Tr US$
850,6 Tr US$
23,2%
—
6,2%
—
2020-12-31
2,4 T US$
604,6 Tr US$
377,8 Tr US$
569,3 Tr US$
517,7 Tr US$
51,6 Tr US$
83,5 Tr US$
14,8 Tr US$
110,3 Tr US$
151,8 Tr US$
—
-172,6 Tr US$
-42,6 Tr US$
632,6 Tr US$
1 T US$
1 T US$
1,1 T US$
22,1%
—
4,2%
—
2021-12-31
2,8 T US$
720,5 Tr US$
449,4 Tr US$
565,3 Tr US$
492,6 Tr US$
72,7 Tr US$
103 Tr US$
20,4 Tr US$
0 US$
161,1 Tr US$
—
-698,1 Tr US$
-9,5 Tr US$
1 T US$
855,4 Tr US$
900,7 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
23,0%
—
4,7%
—
2022-12-31
3,2 T US$
909,8 Tr US$
586,9 Tr US$
557,4 Tr US$
489,4 Tr US$
68 Tr US$
119,7 Tr US$
21,6 Tr US$
148,1 Tr US$
177,4 Tr US$
275,4 Tr US$
-917,2 Tr US$
-37,8 Tr US$
855,4 Tr US$
430,2 Tr US$
430,2 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
23,6%
—
7,1%
—
2023-12-31
3,3 T US$
732,5 Tr US$
596,1 Tr US$
716,7 Tr US$
626,8 Tr US$
89,9 Tr US$
152,1 Tr US$
21,8 Tr US$
24,2 Tr US$
190,7 Tr US$
-150 Tr US$
-283,8 Tr US$
-344,7 Tr US$
430,2 Tr US$
534,3 Tr US$
534,3 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
22,4%
—
7,0%
—
2024-12-31
3,3 T US$
859,4 Tr US$
505 Tr US$
668,1 Tr US$
603 Tr US$
65,1 Tr US$
175,6 Tr US$
25,8 Tr US$
0 US$
205,3 Tr US$
656,9 Tr US$
-1 T US$
465,9 Tr US$
534,3 Tr US$
638,9 Tr US$
620,8 Tr US$
2 T US$
20,7%
—
7,5%
—
2025-12-31
3,5 T US$
903,5 Tr US$
483,2 Tr US$
680,4 Tr US$
616,8 Tr US$
63,6 Tr US$
206,5 Tr US$
27,3 Tr US$
247,8 Tr US$
212,6 Tr US$
-170,9 Tr US$
-137,6 Tr US$
-632,6 Tr US$
638,9 Tr US$
585,9 Tr US$
580 Tr US$
1,8 T US$
20,2%
—
7,7%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
IDEX CorporationIEX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý168,38 US$Report-date price234,29 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
Otis Worldwide CorporationOTIS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý72,4 US$Report-date price66,11 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Nordson CorporationNDSN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý206,83 US$Report-date price328,17 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
IDEX CorporationIEX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý168,38 US$Report-date price234,29 US$
IDEX Corporation (IEX) trades at 24.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 19.0x compares with a peer median of 19.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Otis Worldwide Corporation, Nordson Corporation, Rockwell Automation Inc. and Illinois Tool Works Inc., as of 2026-10-11.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Broader industrial sector benchmark metrics demonstrate disciplined capital allocation, with an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.1% and capex-to-depreciation of 0.68 as of 2026-10-05. IDEX historically operated below this benchmark with FY2025 capex of $63.6M (1.84% of revenue), but is expanding its investment phase with FY2026 capex guided to ~$110M (~3.0% of revenue) to build capacity for prebooked OEM backlog.5,7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
During an industrial upcycle, semiconductor fabrication equipment builds surge alongside hyper-scale AI data center construction, driving rapid order conversion for IDEX's precision liquid cooling manifolds and high-purity fluidic assemblies. Concurrently, general industrial demand in North America and Europe rebounds, filling rapid-replenishment channels and driving operating margin expansion through overhead absorption and 80/20 operational efficiencies.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In a cyclical downturn, prolonged industrial weakness in Europe and Asia exacerbates customer destocking across general industrial and municipal markets. Lower factory utilization leads OEM partners to cancel or defer blanket purchase commitments, resulting in fixed cost de-leverage across FMT and FSDP manufacturing facilities. Margin compression is intensified if input cost inflation persists while tariff rebates expire.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Data Center Liquid Cooling Adoption
positive
Accelerating power density in artificial intelligence data center infrastructure requires advanced liquid cooling solutions, fueling strong multi-year demand for specialized precision pneumatic manifolds and valves.
Advanced Semiconductor Fab Capacity Expansions
positive
Next-generation sub-2nm semiconductor fabrication requires extreme chemical purity and ultra-precise thermal control, increasing adoption of IDEX's patented non-idling high-purity water heating solutions.
Định vị
IDEX is strategically positioned as a premier precision component supplier, insulating itself from broader cyclical volatility through high niche diversification and mission-critical OEM integration. Its broad product line across Health and Science Technologies ($1,490.7M), Fluid and Metering Technologies ($1,222.5M), and Fire and Safety Diversified Products ($744.3M), paired with a customer base where no client exceeds 3% of sales, enables IDEX to outperform commoditized industrial machinery peers during mid-cycle transitions.8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
With the stock trading at $234.29 against a Fair value midpoint of $168.38, the shares carry a -28.13% implied return. A 0% portfolio allocation is recommended for fundamental equity accounts to prevent capital impairment.4
Rủi ro
Risk management mandates disciplined avoidance of equity purchases under prevailing valuation multiples. Investors holding legacy positions should utilize trailing stop orders and sell call options against long inventory to hedge downside risk. Portfolio managers should closely monitor quarterly operating margin prints across the Fluid and Metering Technologies segment to detect early signs of pricing lag or tariff rebate friction, liquidating remaining holdings if consolidated operating margins breach 20.0%.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$168.38 (House Fair Value Midpoint)
Re-evaluate fundamental risk-reward profile for potential rating upgrade.
At the house Fair value midpoint, share price reflects full compensation for European industrial destocking and tariff rebate friction.
Consider initiating long coverage review if operational checkpoints hold.
The low end of the synthesized valuation range provides an adequate margin of safety against cyclical de-rating.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$234.29 (Current Analysis Price)
Liquidate existing positions or initiate structured reduction of legacy holdings.
$243.80 (52-Week High)
Complete final position liquidation before valuation multiple mean reversion.
Trading at 23.98x forward earnings and a 39.14% premium to Fair value ($168.38), IDEX offers no margin of safety against macroeconomic deceleration or multiple contraction.4
Quality Compounder Growth Investor
Avoid
Although IDEX demonstrates strong 80/20 execution and secular growth in Health and Science Technologies, organic compounding is over-discounted by the market, limiting upside even under the bull case ($185.31).5
Cyclical / Income Investor
Avoid
With a modest baseline dividend yield and international revenue (Europe $846.2M, Asia $563.0M) vulnerable to manufacturing contraction, cyclical risk outweighs cash returns.8
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
IDEX Corporation is assigned a Sell rating. While IDEX is a high-grade industrial business benefiting from narrow-moat switching costs in mission-critical fluidics, the market price of $234.29 trades at an excessive 39.14% premium to the house Fair value of $168.38, implying -28.13% return.4
At 23.98x forward earnings, IDEX trades well above diversified peer ITW (21.40x forward P/E) despite trailing ITW in operating profitability (20.23% vs 26.90%). Current pricing leaves zero buffer for cyclical headwinds in Europe ($846.2M revenue) or Asia ($563.0M revenue).
§15Your notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-11 · Published 2026-10-11 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 4 figuresCited in Kịch bản
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Under the bear case, European and Asian industrial stagnation deepens, triggering distributor destocking and OEM order deferrals across FMT and FSDP segments. Operating margins contract as tariff rebate expirations and persistent input cost inflation outpace commercial price increases, while elevated FY2026 capex of $110M dampens free cash flow generation.
Protracted European and Asian industrial recession induces OEM order cancellation and destocking across FMT and FSDP.
Europe contributed $846.2M (24.5%) and Asia $563.0M (16.3%) of FY2025 revenue ($3,457.5M). Ongoing geopolitical tensions, rate headwinds, and industrial caution could drive international orders negative, reducing top-line growth by over 500 bps relative to guided 5%-6%.5,7,8
FV impact
-0.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
IDEX trades at 23.98x forward earnings, relying on a terminal exit multiple of 21.0x. High-quality diversified peer ITW trades at 21.40x forward P/E while delivering 26.90% operating margins, and peer OTIS trades at 14.57x. If IDEX's growth normalizes without closing the margin gap, its multiple derates 20% toward 17.0x-18.0x.3,4
FV impact
-3.1%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Simultaneous industrial capex contraction, capacity under-absorption, and elevated capex burden.
FY2025 FCF was $616.8M on capex of $63.6M. Guided FY2026 capex surges to $110M. If OEM demand drops and operating cash flow falls 25% from $680.4M to ~$510M while capex remains at $110M, FCF collapses below $450M.5,6,7
FV impact
-1.6%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
OEM customers delay capital equipment deployments or push out delivery dates for semiconductor and life science tools, slowing high-margin volume recovery.
Hiện tại:Low double-digit FY2026 target
Cảnh báo nếu< 4.0%
Competitive encroachment in standard industrial pumps and valves by larger conglomerates such as ITW and Nordson.
medium
3 to 5 years
Relentless application of the 80/20 operational framework to reduce internal overhead and preserve gross margins above 44%.5,7
Under the bull case, rapid commercial adoption of liquid cooling manifolds in hyperscale AI data centers and surging semiconductor fab tool installations accelerate organic revenue growth above 8% annually. Operating margins expand toward 25.0%, approaching specialized peers Nordson (27.40%) and ITW (26.90%), lifting potential intrinsic value toward $185.31.3,5
Vì sao quan trọng
Tests the effectiveness of systematic operational initiatives in acquired businesses.
03
Chỉ số:
European and Asian Order Trajectory
Hiện tạiFacing persistent headwinds from regional economic uncertainty and distributor caution.
Vì sao quan trọng
Monitors whether international distribution channels stabilize or suffer deeper destocking.
FY2025 gross profit of $1,538.8M on revenue of $3,457.5M represents a 44.51% gross margin, compared to the broader industrial peer average of 37.5%.
Premium pricing power provides an operating cushion that protects consolidated gross profitability against selective tariff rebates and material inflation.
Capex surge reflects high-return growth capacity expansion rather than structural maintenance drag.
Capexguidance was increased from $63.6M in FY2025 to ~$110M in FY2026.
Near-term free cash flow is dampened by approximately $46M, but targeted capacity de-bottlenecks prebooked OEM order conversion through 2027.
Europe generated $846.2M (24.5%) and Asia generated $563.0M (16.3%) of FY2025 revenue.
Macroeconomic stagnation in foreign manufacturing centers creates an ongoing drag on organic top-line compounding that offsets domestic life-science acceleration.
Rockwell Automation Inc.ROK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý162,13 US$Report-date price455,08 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếStrong
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
Illinois Tool Works Inc.ITW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý195,02 US$Report-date price262,92 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Biên
IEX
IDEX Corporation
$17.3B
24.0x
4.8x
19.0x
13.0%
—
OTIS
Otis Worldwide Corporation
$25.1B
14.6x
1.7x
12.7x
—
15.1%
NDSN
Nordson Corporation
$18.3B
25.3x
6.1x
20.8x
17.8%
27.4%
ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc.
$48.0B
29.0x
5.4x
24.5x
30.6%
21.0%
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$75.2B
21.4x
4.6x
17.5x
104.6%
26.9%
European Industrial Production Softness
negative
Persistent macroeconomic stagnation, high interest rates, and regulatory friction across European industrial centers dampen general factory automation and industrial equipment demand.
< 20.5% in any reported quarter
Halt operating margin expansion glidepath and lower terminal exit multiple from 21.0x to 18.5x.
