McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
NYSE: MCD · Real-Time Price · USD
$276
-7.94 (-2.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MCD rated Strong Buy
The market underprices the extreme durability of MCD's franchise royalty stream. A structural premium to internal valuation cross-checks is justified by massive, predictable cash flows.
Fair value (mid)
$424 / share
$317 – $531
Upside to FV
+49.4%
from $276
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Digital investments and automation yield outsized margin expansion. The consumer absorbs price increases without traffic degradation, allowing aggressive global unit expansion and massive capital returns.
Biggest risk
Severe Franchisee Rebellion
Severe Franchisee Rebellion: Persistent inflation squeezes franchisee unit economics, halting global unit expansion and forcing parent rent and royalty concessions.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. We are aggressive buyers of McDonald's highly resilient, real estate and royalty collection business. Current levels deeply discount the inherent stability of its 45%+ operating margins and $7B+ free cash flow generation.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $201.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 27.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 8.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $12.1 | |
| Shares out | 710.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 22.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.9x | |
| Dividend | $7.44 (2.70%) | |
| Volume | 6,044,096 | |
| Beta | 0.44 | |
| Price target | $340 | +23.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
McDonald's CorporationMCD
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 27.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 8.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $12.1
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.9x
- Market cap
- $201.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $23.18B | $25.50B | $25.92B | $26.89B | +5.1% |
| Gross profit | $13.21B | $14.56B | $14.71B | $15.43B | +5.3% |
| Operating income | $10.35B | $11.75B | $11.85B | $12.39B | +6.2% |
| Net income | $6.18B | $8.47B | $8.22B | $8.56B | +11.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.33 | $11.56 | $11.39 | $11.95 | +12.8% |
| EBITDA | $10.90B | $13.86B | $13.95B | $14.68B | +10.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.49B | $2.44B | $2.41B | $2.58B | +1.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $317
- Fair value (mid)
- $424
- Fair value (high)
- $531
- Current price
- $276
- Upside to mid
- +49.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $448 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $595 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $389 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $439 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $272 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $106 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$340
+23.1%
In the news
Latest news · MCD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $201.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.9x
- P/S
- 7.1x
- PEG
- 2.67
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 57.3%
- Operating margin
- 46.0%
- ROA
- 13.6%
- ROIC
- 18.8%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 1.14
- Quick ratio
- 0.87
Trading
- Beta
- 0.44
- Volume
- 6,044,096
- Dividend yield
- 2.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +49.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$530.94
+87.1% from spot
Digital investments and automation yield outsized margin expansion. The consumer absorbs price increases without traffic degradation, allowing aggressive global unit expansion and massive capital returns.
- Revenue CAGR exceeds 6%
- Operating margins expand to 48%
- Terminal multiple expands to 24x
Base60%
Price target
$423.76
+49.4% from spot
Consistent execution of the franchise model. Pricing successfully offsets localized traffic softness. Reliable FCF generation funds steady dividend growth and share repurchases, driving compounding returns.
- Revenue CAGR normalizes at 5%
- Operating margins stabilize at 45.3%
- Terminal multiple holds at 20x
Bear20%
Price target
$316.97
+11.7% from spot
Consumer fatigue sets in definitively. Fast-casual competitors steal share. Franchisee profitability pressure requires corporate royalty concessions, fundamentally breaking the historical margin algorithm.
- Revenue CAGR drops below 3%
- Operating margins compress to 42%
- Terminal multiple contracts to 16x
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $424.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $448 | +62.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $595 | +115.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $389 | +41.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $439 | +59.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $272 | -1.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $106 | -61.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $424 | +49.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3% | $606 | $742 | $742 | $742 | $742 |
| 5.3% | $424 | $499 | $606 | $742 | $742 |
| 6.3% | $326 | $368 | $424 | $499 | $606 |
| 7.3% | $265 | $292 | $326 | $368 | $424 |
| 8.3% | $233 | $242 | $265 | $292 | $326 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core holding. Warrants an overweight allocation within a consumer-discretionary or dividend-growth sleeve due to its highly defensive, low-beta characteristics.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$276
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if valuation multiples decouple entirely from bond yields (e.g., P/E > 30x) or if structural franchisee financial health deteriorates over consecutive quarters.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC18.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MCD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MCD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MCD report
What is the current MCD stock rating?
McDonald's Corporation is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MCD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MCD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MCD?
The latest report frames MCD around $317 to $531. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MCD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyMCD · Fair value $424+49.4% · Confidence 88/100