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NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $61.8, high $149, with mid-point at $106.
Stock analysis

NOW fair value $62–$149

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-05-19Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Giá
$101.83
▲ +3.70 (+3.63%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$106
$62–$149
Khuyến nghị
Giữ
confidence 82/100
Tiềm năng tăng
+3.6%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$89.70
MoS level · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
$105.0B
P/E fwd 20.3
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Composite fair value $106 with high case $149.
  • Implied upside of 3.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$106
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$101.83Price
Low $61.76
Mid $105.53
High $148.71

NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Rapid generative AI workflow integration drives a new IT spending super-cycle, expanding ARPU.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

If forward revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. estimates drop below 15% without a commensurate drop in stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., the forward-earnings premium will collapse, exposing heavily burdened trailing cash realities.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

IT Budget Contraction

30%· Medium

Macro IT budget optimization slows seat growth significantly across enterprise clients.

FV impact
Downside to $61.76 floor.
Trigger
12-18 months

AI Monetization Failure

20%· Medium

Generative AI products fail to offset core market saturation, compressing revenue growth below 15%.

FV impact
20% multiple compression.
Trigger
24 months

Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Stock-based compensation continues to exceed 14.7% of revenue, impairing true cash conversion and depressing institutional demand.

FV impact
15% downside.
Trigger
6-12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Operating margin failing to expand toward 20% in the next 12-24 months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward revenue growth estimates dropping below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 16% of revenue amidst plateauing seat growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention dipping below 120% indicating stalled cross-selling.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow margins compressing below 30% due to aggressive capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Khoản mụcT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Kỳ2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Doanh thu$7.25B$8.97B$10.98B$13.28B+22.4%
Lợi nhuận gộp$5.67B$7.05B$8.70B$10.30B+22.0%
Lợi nhuận hoạt động$355.0M$762.0M$1.36B$1.82B+72.6%
Lợi nhuận ròng$325.0M$1.73B$1.43B$1.75B+75.2%
EPS (pha loãng)$0.32$1.68$1.37$1.67+73.5%
EBITDA$788.0M$1.32B$2.33B$3.02B+56.5%
R&D$1.77B$2.12B$2.54B$2.96B+18.7%
SG&A$3.55B$4.16B$4.79B$5.51B+15.8%

Điểm chất lượng

OCF / Lợi nhuận ròng
3.11×
>1 cho thấy chất lượng lợi nhuận cao
Cổng chất lượng kế toán
Fail
Cổng điều chỉnh theo ngành
ROIC
11.7%
Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn đầu tư
Phần 3

Numbers analysis

Dòng tiền

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Phân bổ vốn

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

NOW income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of NOW (NOW) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
FAQ

NOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $102 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $106 (range $61.8–$149), which implies roughly 3.6% upside to the midpoint.
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Same archetype: mature-compounder