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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
OTIS — frequently asked questions
Is Otis Worldwide Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-09, OTIS looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 66,1 USD versus our fair value of 72,4 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 84,6 USD. That implies roughly 9.5% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-09, gives OTIS a fair value of 72,4 USD and a potential value of 84,6 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Otis Worldwide Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy OTIS now?
Our latest published rating for OTIS, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Hold. Otis Worldwide Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 66,1 USD versus fair value of 72,4 USD; potential value is 84,6 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for OTIS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-09 documents Otis Worldwide Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is OTIS's rating?
Our latest published rating for OTIS, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 72,4 USD, the potential value of 84,6 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (66,1 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyHold
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$66.11
Giá trị hợp lý
$72.40
Giá trị tiềm năng
$84.55
Tính đến
2026-10-08
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Acceleration of the global modernization supercycle, where Otis's 26% constant-currency backlog growth converts into long-term high-margin maintenance contracts on an aging global elevator installed base,.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Service operating margin breaching below 22.0% (down from 23.2% in Q2 2026) driven by persistent labor cost inflation and modernization execution friction,.
Otis Worldwide Corporation carries a committee rating of Hold with a baseline fair value of $72.40 per share, offering a +9.5% implied return (8.7% price discount) relative to its $66.11 trading price,,. While Otis's ~2.5 million unit installed base drives defensive, high-margin maintenance cash flows, near-term upside is restrained by field wage inflation, modernization execution friction, and commercial construction declines in China,,.3,4
Otis Worldwide Corporation presents an attractive business model whose near-term equity upside is tempered by operational friction and regional construction headwinds. The committee rating is Hold with a fair value of $72.40 per share, compared to the share price of $66.11 on October 8, 2026. Otis's defensive foundation is its global installed base of ~2.5 million customer units, generating 65.4% of total revenues and more than 90% of segment operating profit through high-margin Service contracts,. Maintenance demand is nondiscretionary due to regulatory life-safety codes, which creates reliable across all economic cycles.
Near-term financial results have revealed margin pressure in the core Service business. In Q2 2026, Service operating margin dropped 170 basis points year-over-year to 23.2% as field technician wage increases and material costs outpaced contract price adjustments, alongside dilution from rapid modernization growth (+24% organic sales),. Concurrently, New Equipment demand in China contracted in the high teens, impairing China's $1,650 million revenue contribution. Management consequently adjusted full-year 2026 guidance to $15.1-$15.3 billion in revenue and $4.01-$4.05 in adjusted EPS,. Second-half margin recovery toward guided mid-24% to 25% levels is essential to confirm that operational initiatives are taking hold,.4,6
Capital allocation remains disciplined and oriented toward shareholder distributions. With annual capex representing approximately 1.0% of revenue ($152 million in FY2025), Otis converts operating profits efficiently into free cash flow, targeting $1.50 to $1.55 billion in adjusted free cash flow for FY2026. This cash flow funds consistent dividend payouts ($1.76 per share baseline) and substantial share repurchases ($800 million completed in 1H 2026). With debt standing at $8,846 million and senior executive transition underway ahead of CEO Judith F. Marks's planned retirement in 2027, investors should maintain existing positions and await operational margin validation.2,4
Unmatched Global Maintenance Installed Base
Maintaining approximately 2.5 million elevators and escalators globally creates dense technician routes that competitors cannot match economically, generating over 90% of segment operating income,.6
Accelerating Modernization Backlog Growth
Aging commercial real estate drives strong modernization demand, with modernization backlog growing 26% at constant currency and Q2 2026 organic sales expanding 24%.
Low capital intensity (FY2025 capex of $152M against $14,431M revenue,) enables $1.50B-$1.55B in projected adjusted free cash flow to support steady share repurchases and dividends,.4,5
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Hold: At $66.11, Otis trades at an 8.7% discount to its baseline fair value of $72.40 (+9.5% implied return). Investors should maintain existing allocations and await verified second-half 2026 service margin expansion toward guided mid-24% levels before deploying new capital,,.4
Tổng quan công ty
Otis Worldwide Corporation (NYSE: OTIS) is the world's leading manufacturer, installer, and service provider of elevators, escalators, and moving walkways. The company moves 2.5 billion people daily and maintains approximately 2.5 million customer units globally across more than 200 countries and territories, supported by a workforce of 72,000 employees including 45,000 field professionals.
The business operates through two primary segments: Service and New Equipment,. In FY2025, the Service segment generated $9,442 million in revenue (65.4% of consolidated sales) and $2,374 million in operating profit, encompassing preventive maintenance, emergency repairs, and full equipment modernizations,. The New Equipment segment delivered $4,989 million in revenue and $240 million in operating profit, engineering and installing systems in commercial and residential developments worldwide,.
Geographically, the United States accounted for $4,192 million in FY2025 revenue, China generated $1,650 million, and other international jurisdictions contributed $8,589 million,,. On September 15, 2026, Otis announced that Chair, CEO, and President Judith F. Marks will retire on the earlier of her successor's appointment or July 31, 2027, with the Board retaining Spencer Stuart to assist in the executive search.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A compounding stress scenario evaluates the combined impact of structural real estate contraction in China, field labor inflation exceeding contract price escalators, and debt refinancing pressures. If China new equipment installations deteriorate further, impairing the $1,650M revenue base, while Service operating margins contract toward 22.0%, operating profit growth stalls. Concurrently, refinancing portions of Otis's $8,846M debt load at wider credit spreads increases capital costs toward 9.87%. Under this combined operational and balance-sheet stress, cash conversion weakens and multiple contraction compounds cash flow impairment.
Higher debt refinancing spreads increase cost of capital
The bear trajectory contemplates persistent field labor inflation outstripping contract escalators, compounded by structural real estate contraction in China and higher refinancing costs on maturing debt obligations. Multiple de-rating and margin compression impair economic profit generation.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe Service Margin Compression from Unrecovered Wage Inflation and Modernization Mix Dilution
In Q2 2026, Service operating margin fell 170 bps Y/Y to 23.2% as management acknowledged unrecovered labor and material inflation,. If service margin breaches below 22.0%, consolidated operating margin drops ~300 bps below the 16.0% terminal target, resulting in a 23.5% fair value decline.4
FV impact
-6.5%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
A breach below 22.0% indicates that field labor inflation and modernization mix dilution cannot be offset by pricing initiatives, driving consolidated operating margin down ~300 bps and invalidating the 16.0% terminal margin target.
Hiện tại:23.2% in Q2 2026
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 22.0%
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
Otis Worldwide Corporation possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its unrivaled global installed base of approximately 2.5 million units and high switching costs embedded in regulatory-mandated elevator maintenance contracts. The Service franchise contributes $9,442M of consolidated revenue and $2,374M in segment operating profit,, accounting for over 90% of total segment operating earnings. This structural skew toward recurring maintenance insulates the company from cyclical volatility in building construction.
The density of Otis's field service portfolio creates significant labor efficiency advantages. With 45,000 field professionals moving 2.5 billion people daily, route concentration allows technicians to service clustered units with minimal transit time. Independent service providers struggle to match this operational efficiency, particularly as modern elevators incorporate connected IoT diagnostics that require proprietary firmware and specialized tooling. Furthermore, multi-year contracts provide predictable cash flow streams and sticky customer retention.
Economic profit durability is reinforced by an asset-light capital requirement. In FY2025, Otis expended $152M on capital expenditures, representing approximately 1.0% of net sales, while producing $2,133M in GAAP EBIT. This allows Otis to earn returns on invested capital well in excess of its 7.87% cost of capital while returning substantial cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Otis generates returns on invested capital significantly above its 7.87% computed WACC and 9.04% cost of equity. This sustained economic profit is enabled by an asset-light operating model requiring only $152M in annual capital expenditures against $14,431M in revenue in FY2025,, generating $2,133M in EBIT.2,5
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Installed Base Scale and Route Density — Otis maintains the industry's largest global installed base of ~2.5 million customer units worldwide, creating local technician route density that minimizes windshield travel time, lowers unit service costs, and erects formidable scale barriers against sub-scale competitors.Wide
02Switching Costs in Lifecycle Service Contracts — Proprietary equipment architectures, strict municipal safety certification requirements, and long-term maintenance contracts (including standard four-year terms in North America) create high customer switching friction, driving defensive, recurring maintenance demand.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Independent Service Provider Churn and Regional Contract Pricing Pressure
medium
12 to 24 months
Management has deployed $50M in targeted service excellence investments, technician tooling, and AI micro-pricing algorithms to defend portfolio retention and protect pricing discipline,.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($72.40). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.7B after modeled reinvestment of $145.3M, with terminal value at 80.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base trajectory models mid-single-digit service revenue growth driven by contract retention and price escalators, combined with double-digit modernization growth that offsets ongoing declines in China new equipment installations. Productivity initiatives and SG&A reductions support steady consolidated margin expansion.
Upgrade the rating; Review portfolio allocation for selective capital additions if margin recovery is validated by price realization outstripping labor costs in the Americas.
Kích hoạt: Service operating margin expanding above 24.5% and FY2026 EPS exceeding $4.091
A decisive margin beat proves that service price escalators and productivity initiatives have overtaken wage inflation, confirming operating leverage toward the terminal target.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Hold; Maintain current weighting and track second-half restructuring cost reductions and retention metrics without committing incremental capital.
Operational results track baseline expectations, balancing defensive service cash generation against China new equipment volume contraction.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Trim position weighting to manage downside exposure and re-examine balance-sheet sensitivity to debt refinancing rates.
Kích hoạt: Service operating margin falling below 22.5% or FY2026 EPS falling below $4.014
Failure to stabilize service margins would demonstrate that wage inflation and mix dilution are structural, requiring lower terminal valuation multiples.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Otis's earnings quality remains sound, supported by high cash conversion, though second quarter GAAP operating profit of $575M and adjusted operating profit of $587M reflect $11M in restructuring charges. The absence of prior-year UpLift transformation costs ($41M in 1H 2025) improved GAAP comparability. GAAP EPS of $1.12 exceeded adjusted EPS of $1.01 in Q2 2026 due to $31M in non-recurring tax-related interest income adjustments. Operating cash flow of $680M and adjusted free cash flow of $562M in 1H 2026 substantiate underlying cash generation despite working capital movements.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimate momentum has stabilized post-Q2 results. Consensus EPS for FY2026 stands unchanged at $4.04 between October 5 and October 9, 2026, matching the midpoint of updated management guidance of $4.01-$4.05. Similarly, FY2027 consensus EPS remains constant at $4.53, while revenue estimates sit flat at $15,302M for FY2026 and $16,012M for FY2027.4
Cash flow generation demonstrated resilience in the first half of 2026, with cash flow from operations reaching $680M ($267M in Q2) compared to $405M in 1H 2025. Free cash flow for 1H 2026 was $603M, while adjusted free cash flow stood at $562M. For full-year 2026, management guides adjusted free cash flow to $1.50B-$1.55B, converting approximately 100% of net income into free cash.4
Phân bổ vốn
Otis maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on shareholder distributions and selective modernization investment. In 1H 2026, the company paid $330M in dividends and completed $807M in common stock repurchases. Current dividend per share stands at $1.76. Capital expenditures remain low at $77M in 1H 2026 ($152M in FY2025), underscoring an asset-light model. Total debt sits at $8,846M, requiring disciplined debt refinancing management as 2026 and 2027 notes mature.
Otis maintains stable, high economic profits. Because the business requires minimal physical capital reinvestment ($152M capex on $14,431M sales,), return on invested capital remains well in excess of capital costs, supported by predictable multi-year service revenues.
In FY2025, Service generated $9,442M in revenue and $2,374M in operating profit,, compared to New Equipment's $4,989M in revenue and $240M in operating profit,.
Otis's earnings engine is overwhelmingly service-dominated, making contract pricing and retention far more critical to than new installation demand.
Doanh thu mới nhất14,4 T US$CAGR doanh thu +2,0%
Biên hoạt động14,8%9 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,4 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng6,6 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu14,4 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−10,1 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp4,4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−2,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động2,1 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−749 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng1,4 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
14.431.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
10.061.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
4.370.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
2.237.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
2.133.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-749.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.384.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản10,7 T US$Tiền mặt1,1 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn6,5 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả15,9 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn7,7 T US$Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu5,3 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
10.653.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
1.096.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
6.501.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
15.924.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
7.656.000.000 US$
Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu
5.346.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng1,4 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+175 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+80 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−43 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1,6 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ2,3 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1,6 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−406 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−2,4 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+15 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ1,1 T US$
1,6 T US$ − 152 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,4 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.384.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
1.639.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
175.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
80.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.596.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
43.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
3.932.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
2.321.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
15.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
406.000.000 US$
Capex
152.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
254.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
2.421.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
809.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
647.000.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
658.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
307.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
1.105.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-406.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-2.421.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
14,4 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Services9,4 T US$65,4%+6,2% so với cùng kỳ
New Equipment5 T US$34,6%−7% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-05 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Services
9,4 T US$
65,4%
6,2%
New Equipment
5 T US$
34,6%
-7%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
14,4 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
Khác8,6 T US$59,5%+6% so với cùng kỳ
United States4,2 T US$29%−1,1% so với cùng kỳ
China1,7 T US$11,4%−14% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-05 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Other
8,6 T US$
59,5%
6%
United States
4,2 T US$
29%
-1,1%
China
1,7 T US$
11,4%
-14%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-09.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-12-31
12,3 T US$
2,2 T US$
636 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
133 Tr US$
177 Tr US$
29 Tr US$
—
260 Tr US$
—
-186 Tr US$
-1,4 T US$
—
1,6 T US$
1,6 T US$
17 Tr US$
15,5%
—
—
—
2018-12-31
12,9 T US$
2 T US$
1 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
172 Tr US$
190 Tr US$
38 Tr US$
—
0 US$
—
-201 Tr US$
-1,5 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,3 T US$
27 Tr US$
14,2%
—
—
—
2019-12-31
13,1 T US$
2 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
145 Tr US$
180 Tr US$
37 Tr US$
0 US$
0 US$
—
-203 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,4 T US$
5 Tr US$
13,8%
—
—
—
2020-12-31
12,8 T US$
1,8 T US$
906 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
183 Tr US$
191 Tr US$
63 Tr US$
0 US$
260 Tr US$
—
-353 Tr US$
-844 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
1,8 T US$
1,8 T US$
5,3 T US$
12,8%
—
4,1%
—
2021-12-31
14,3 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,8 T US$
1,6 T US$
156 Tr US$
203 Tr US$
65 Tr US$
725 Tr US$
393 Tr US$
—
-89 Tr US$
58 Tr US$
1,8 T US$
3,5 T US$
1,6 T US$
7,2 T US$
14,7%
—
4,6%
—
2022-12-31
13,7 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
115 Tr US$
191 Tr US$
67 Tr US$
850 Tr US$
465 Tr US$
-387 Tr US$
-33 Tr US$
-3,7 T US$
3,5 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
6,6 T US$
14,9%
—
6,6%
—
2023-12-31
14,2 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,5 T US$
138 Tr US$
193 Tr US$
64 Tr US$
800 Tr US$
539 Tr US$
100 Tr US$
-183 Tr US$
-1,4 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,3 T US$
2,5 T US$
6,9 T US$
15,4%
—
6,8%
—
2024-12-31
14,3 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
126 Tr US$
181 Tr US$
73 Tr US$
1 T US$
606 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
-164 Tr US$
-309 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
2,3 T US$
2,3 T US$
8,3 T US$
14,1%
—
7,6%
—
2025-12-31
14,4 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
152 Tr US$
175 Tr US$
80 Tr US$
809 Tr US$
647 Tr US$
-658 Tr US$
-406 Tr US$
-2,4 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,1 T US$
7,7 T US$
14,8%
—
6,9%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Otis Worldwide CorporationOTIS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý72,4 US$Report-date price66,11 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Rockwell Automation Inc.ROK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý162,13 US$Report-date price455,08 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếStrong
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
Illinois Tool Works Inc.ITW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý195,02 US$Report-date price262,92 US$
Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS) trades at 15.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.7x compares with a peer median of 15.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Rockwell Automation Inc., Illinois Tool Works Inc., Dover Corporation and Xylem Inc., as of 2026-10-09.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
Industry capex-to-depreciation is 0.68 and industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.1%. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
A cyclical peak in the elevator and escalator industry features robust multi-family and commercial real estate development, high installation volumes, strong pricing power on equipment sales, and accelerated conversion of completed installations into sticky maintenance agreements.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A pronounced industry downturn is characterized by severe contraction in commercial and residential construction, widespread project cancellations, pricing wars in new equipment bids, and aggressive unit poaching by independent service providers during building occupancy declines.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Aging Global Building Infrastructure and Modernization Wave
positive
An aging global elevator base requires mandatory safety upgrades and efficiency overhauls, driving Otis's modernization backlog up 26% at constant currency.
Smart Building Integration and Digital IoT Telemetry
positive
Connected IoT architectures and automated remote diagnostics increase customer reliance on OEM maintenance networks, raising barriers for independent contractors.
China Real Estate Structural Downshift
negative
The structural unwinding of residential property oversupply in China has depressed new equipment volume, shifting regional strategy from installation to maintenance portfolio density.
Định vị
Otis is insulated against broader industry capital cycles by deriving 65.4% of net sales and more than 90% of operating profits from its recurring Service segment,. While New Equipment sales face organic pressure in China (down high-teens), the 26% growth in modernization backlog captures demand from the world's aging elevator infrastructure.6
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
2.0-3.0%
A moderate conviction level aligns with the committee Hold rating. While the Service franchise provides defensive cash flows, near-term headwinds from wage inflation and China new equipment declines advise maintaining current weights without adding new capital.
Rủi ro
Portfolio exposure should be maintained at a neutral market weighting. Monitor quarterly service contract retention rates in North America and track credit spread developments on corporate debt maturities in 2026 and 2027 against Otis's $8,846M debt obligation.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$58.00 - $60.00
Selective accumulation only on valuation disconnect
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$84.50
Trim position and harvest gains as valuation fully discounts multi-year operational targets
Re-examine thesis durability, downgrade internal conviction, and initiate position trimming.
Modernization Backlog Growth
Deceleration below 10% constant currency growth
Lower medium-term revenue forecasts and evaluate whether market share losses are occurring.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Total Return / Value Investor
Hold
At $66.11, Otis trades at an 8.7% discount to baseline fair value of $72.40 (+9.5% implied return),. While free cash flow yield is healthy ($1.50B-$1.55B guidance), near-term service margin dilution warrants holding existing shares rather than allocating fresh capital.3,4
Growth / Momentum Investor
Hold
Full-year guidance revisions ($4.01-$4.05 EPS) and persistent China new equipment contractions limit near-term multiple expansion, favoring a wait-and-see stance until 2H margin recovery is proven.4
Income / Defensive Compounder Investor
Hold
Existing investors enjoy a stable dividend supported by ~2.5 million units under maintenance,, but elevated debt of $8,846 million and upcoming refinancings recommend maintaining position size without adding.2
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giữ
We maintain a Hold rating on Otis Worldwide Corporation with a 12-month baseline fair value of $72.40 per share, representing a +9.5% implied return (8.7% price discount) relative to the $66.11 market price,,. Otis's premier global installed base of ~2.5 million units provides sticky, defensive maintenance cash flows,, but near-term upside is constrained by field labor cost inflation, execution friction in modernization, and ongoing construction declines in China,.3,4
With full-year FY2026 adjusted EPSguidance revised to $4.01-$4.05 and adjusted free cash flow expected at $1.50B-$1.55B,, the business continues to return capital via buybacks and dividends, but capital deployment should remain on hold until second-half margin expansion is validated.
§15Your notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-09 · Published 2026-10-09 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Cây quyết định lợi nhuận
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Otis carries $8,846M in debt with 2026 and 2027 notes maturing, testing free cash conversion and margin durability under elevated leverage. If refinancing costs surge and debt spreads widen, WACC rises +200 bps above the baseline 7.87%, inflicting a 28.4% fair value haircut.2
FV impact
-21.3%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Structural China Construction Slump and Multiple De-Rating
China New Equipment orders dropped in the high teens with Asia Pacific orders falling over 20% in Q2 2026. If structural construction contraction impairs China's $1,650M revenue base, the market will de-rate Otis's terminal multiple by 20% from 16.0x to 12.8x, eroding fair value by 20.0%.6
FV impact
-5.1%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
China New Equipment Orders
Sustained contraction in China new equipment orders signals structural real estate impairment, endangering China's $1,650M revenue base and triggering a terminal multiple de-rating from 16.0x to 12.8x.
Hiện tại:Contracted in high teens during Q2 2026
Cảnh báo nếuContraction exceeding 20% sustained over multiple quarters
03
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Surging refinancing yields across $8,846M in total debt as notes mature in 2026 and 2027 expands credit spreads, raising the discount rate and driving a 28.4% fair value reduction.
Hiện tại:7.87%
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 9.87% (+200 bps)
04
Americas Service Portfolio Retention
Accelerating churn across North American multi-year maintenance agreements erodes high-margin recurring cash flows in the $4,192M US revenue base.
Hiện tại:Down slightly in Q2 2026, prompting $50M strategic investments,
Cảnh báo nếuRetention rate dropping below 93% or net portfolio loss in Americas
05
Modernization Backlog Growth
Deceleration of modernization backlog growth below 10% impairs Otis's ability to offset new equipment contraction with aging installed base overhauls.
Protracted Real Estate Slump and Construction Contraction in China
medium
24 to 36 months
Otis is redeploying resources toward modernization retrofits, where China modernization orders expanded over 100% in Q2 2026, balancing new build weakness with conversions into the maintenance portfolio.4
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (19,68 US$) plus discounted terminal value (80,79 US$) minus signed per current share (17,46 US$) equals the 83,02 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the bull trajectory, pricing adjustments across the Americas and EMEA fully offset labor inflation, while modernization demand accelerates across mature urban markets. China property stimulus aids project completions, revitalizing higher-margin retrofits and driving operating margins beyond historical highs.
Vì sao quan trọng
Modernization serves as the primary bridge offsetting cyclical new equipment weakness by capturing aging unit overhaul demand.
03
Chỉ số:
China New Equipment Stabilization
Hiện tạiOrders dropped in high teens Y/Y in Q2 2026.
Vì sao quan trọng
Assesses whether the structural downturn in Chinese commercial construction has reached an operational trough.
Minimal Capital Intensity Drives Free Cash Flow Generation
Capital expenditures were $152M against D&A of $175M in FY2025, yielding an approved forecast net reinvestment rate between 8.0% and 6.0% of NOPAT across FY2026-FY2030.
Low capital intensity allows substantial free cash flow generation, supporting debt obligations and steady share count reduction.
Service Margin Execution is the Essential Near-Term Pivot
Service operating margin contracted 170 bps Y/Y to 23.2% in Q2 2026 due to wage and material inflation and modernization ramp expenses.
Second-half earnings recovery relies heavily on capturing 150 bps of service margin expansion toward management's full-year target a touch below 24%,.
Dover CorporationDOV
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý162,66 US$Report-date price190,17 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Xylem Inc.XYL
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý90,73 US$Report-date price102,53 US$
