Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)

NASDAQ: PAYX · USD

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-28

Our latest published analysis: PAYX rated Reduce

Paychex, Inc.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$85.8 / share

Potential value

$101 / share

Upside to FV

-14.4%

Moat

8/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$36.1B
P/E (forward)	17.5x

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

P/E (forward): 17.5x
Market cap: $36.1B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-05-31	2023-05-31	2024-05-31	2025-05-31	2026-05-31	Trend
Revenue	$4.55B	$4.91B	$5.13B	$5.41B	$6.30B	+8.5%
Gross profit	$3.26B	$3.55B	$3.80B	$4.03B	$4.84B	+10.4%
Operating income	$1.84B	$2.03B	$2.17B	$2.21B	$2.51B	+8.1%
Net income	$1.39B	$1.56B	$1.69B	$1.66B	$1.76B	+6.0%
EPS (diluted)	$3.84	$4.30	$4.67	$4.58	$4.89	+6.2%
EBITDA	$2.05B	$2.26B	$2.43B	$2.49B	$3.02B	+10.1%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.42B	$1.52B	$1.62B	$1.82B	$2.33B	+13.2%

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Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$85.75

-14.4% from spot

In the Base case, Paychex compounds as a mature provider with target $85.75 representing an expected return of -14.4% with probability 60.0%. Top-line revenue expands at a steady mid-single-digit pace anchored by core payroll processing, while operating margins remain resilient near historical levels through digital automation. Free cash flow generation continues to fund steady dividend payouts, though current market prices sit above Fair value $85.75.

Top-line revenue expands at a steady mid-single-digit rate across the forecast horizon.
Operating margins remain stable near historical levels supported by automated processing efficiencies.
Client retention rates remain resilient across core small-business accounts.
Dividend payouts continue in line with free cash flow generation.

Bull20%

Price target

$101.23

+1.0% from spot

In the Bull case, Paychex accelerates higher-touch advisory solutions with target $101.23 delivering an expected return of 1.0% with probability 20.0%, reaching Potential value $101.23. Accelerated client conversions to comprehensive co-employment solutions and double-digit enterprise bookings expansion drive revenue growth above historical trends. Operating margin expands toward peak levels as proprietary artificial intelligence workflows contain overhead growth.

Accelerated client conversion from standard payroll to comprehensive advisory and co-employment solutions.
Double-digit enterprise bookings growth driven by expanded sales distribution.
Operating margin expansion toward peak levels via proprietary automation workflows.
Expansion in valuation multiples reflecting accelerated earnings growth.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($85.75). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.2%	$89.8	$90.9	$92.1	$93.4	$94.9
8.7%	$86.8	$87.7	$88.7	$89.8	$91.0
9.2%	$84.2	$84.9	$85.8	$86.7	$87.6
9.7%	$81.8	$82.5	$83.2	$83.9	$84.7
10.2%	$79.7	$80.3	$80.9	$81.5	$82.2

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Forward P/E17.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E20.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

Deeper analysis on PAYX

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

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Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

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Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

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Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

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Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

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Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

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Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

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Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

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Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

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Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this PAYX report

What is the latest published PAYX stock rating?

Paychex, Inc. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full PAYX analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28, lives at /stocks/PAYX/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for PAYX?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-28 gives PAYX a fair value of USD 86 and a potential value of USD 101. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the PAYX page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-28). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReducePAYX · Fair value $85.8-14.4%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	8.0
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)

Our latest published analysis: PAYX rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · PAYX

Valuation

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

Deeper analysis on PAYX

Frequently asked questions

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